基于海平面影响湿地模型的海平面上升影响海岸湿地景观研究
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摘要
科学客观评估海平面上升对海岸生态环境带来的风险是实现合理利用和开发海岸资源的关键。运用海平面影响湿地模型(SLAMM)定量模拟预测近期(2017—2030年)、中期(2017—2050年)和远期(2017—2100年)海平面上升3个不同阶段对广州海岸湿地景观空间分布和面积变化的影响,并对其生态系统服务价值变化进行定量评估。结果显示:1)近期海平面上升导致海岸湿地空间分布呈显著破碎化趋势,中期和远期的影响相对趋于稳定;2)盐沼、芦苇沼泽和红树林面积减少量变化显著,河口水域面积持续扩大,滩涂面积出现波动性变化;3)生态系统服务价值总量呈现"减少(近期)—增加(中期)—减少(远期)"的波动性变化特征,但最终总量减少,减少约435 492.59万元,其中渔业生产和教育科研价值减少量变化显著,污染净化价值增加量变化显著,干扰调节价值波动性变化显著。
Scientifically and objectively assessing the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal ecological environment is the key to achieve rational utilization and development of coastal resources. By using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM), we have made quantitative simulation and projected the short-term(2017—2030), mid-term(2017—2050) and long-term(2017—2100) sea level rise impacts on the Guangzhou coastal wetland change of area and spatial distribution, and further performed quantitative assessment of changes in the ecosystem service value. The results show that sea level rise in the short-term causes the spatial distribution of coastal wetlands towards significant fragmentation, and the mid-term and longterm impacts are relatively stable. The salt marsh, reed marsh and mangrove areas have been decreased dramatically, while the estuary water areas have continued expansion, and fluctuation changes occurred in the mudflat areas; The total value of ecosystem service is characterized with "decrease(short-term)-increase(midterm)-decrease(long-term)", fluctuation, but finally the total amount of value was decreased, with the reduced sum of around 4,354.925,9 million yuan, of which the value of fishery production and education scientific research were decreased drastically, the value of pollution purification was increased significantly, and the fluctuation of interference regulation value was significant.
Scientifically and objectively assessing the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal ecological environment is the key to achieve rational utilization and development of coastal resources. By using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model(SLAMM), we have made quantitative simulation and projected the short-term(2017—2030), mid-term(2017—2050) and long-term(2017—2100) sea level rise impacts on the Guangzhou coastal wetland change of area and spatial distribution, and further performed quantitative assessment of changes in the ecosystem service value. The results show that sea level rise in the short-term causes the spatial distribution of coastal wetlands towards significant fragmentation, and the mid-term and longterm impacts are relatively stable. The salt marsh, reed marsh and mangrove areas have been decreased dramatically, while the estuary water areas have continued expansion, and fluctuation changes occurred in the mudflat areas; The total value of ecosystem service is characterized with "decrease(short-term)-increase(midterm)-decrease(long-term)", fluctuation, but finally the total amount of value was decreased, with the reduced sum of around 4,354.925,9 million yuan, of which the value of fishery production and education scientific research were decreased drastically, the value of pollution purification was increased significantly, and the fluctuation of interference regulation value was significant.
引文
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[14]李娜,董立国,刘长宁,等.黄土丘陵区土地利用格局与生态系统服务价值分析:以中庄流域为例[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):144-147,307.
[15]刘金勇,孔繁花,尹海伟,等.济南市土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(5):1231-1236.
[16]刘英文,杨世伦,罗向欣.海平面上升的淹没效应和岸滩冲淤对潮间带湿地面积影响的分离估算[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(3):23-26,45,52.
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[3]HALLEGATTE S,GREEN C,NICHOLLS R J,et al.Future Flood Losses in Major Coastal Cities[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,3(9):802-806.
[4]程敏,张丽云,崔丽娟,等.滨海湿地生态系统服务及其价值评估研究进展[J].生态学报,2016,36(23):7509-7518
[5]CRAFT C,CLOUGH J,EHMAN J,et al.Forecasting the Effects of Accelerated Sea-level Rise on Tidal Marsh Ecosystem Services[J].Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,2009,7(2):73-78.
[6]THORNE K,MACDONALD G,GUNTENSPERGEN G,et al.U.S.Pacific Coastal Wetland Resilience and Vulnerability to Sea-level rise[J].Science Advances,2018,4(2):eaao3270.
[7]肖笃宁,韩慕康,李晓文,等.环渤海海平面上升与三角洲湿地保护[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(3):237-246.
[8]林雪玲.广州市湿地资源现状与保护策略[J].湿地科学与管理,2007(4):30-33.
[9]刘增礼,林寿明,魏安世.广州市湿地资源现状及保护对策[J].林业调查规划,2007,32(3):79-82.
[10]赵焕庭,王丽荣.中国海岸湿地的类型[J].海洋通报,2000,19(6):72-82.
[11]汤超莲,游大伟,陈特固,等.1986―2008年广东沿海海平面变化趋势[J].热带地理,2009,29(5):423-428.
[12]JONATHAN S,RICHARD A,ROGER F.SLAMM 6.7Beta Technical Documentation[S].Warren:Warren Pinnacle Consulting Inc,2016
[13]王军,顿耀龙.土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响研究综述[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(5):798-808.
[14]李娜,董立国,刘长宁,等.黄土丘陵区土地利用格局与生态系统服务价值分析:以中庄流域为例[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):144-147,307.
[15]刘金勇,孔繁花,尹海伟,等.济南市土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(5):1231-1236.
[16]刘英文,杨世伦,罗向欣.海平面上升的淹没效应和岸滩冲淤对潮间带湿地面积影响的分离估算[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(3):23-26,45,52.