基于改进熵权法和云模型的泥石流易发性评价
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摘要
为了解决在泥石流易发性评价过程中的随机性和模糊性的问题,选取了一次最大冲出量、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、最大相对高差、松散物源储量、泥砂补给段长度比、日最大降雨量、人口密度、植被覆盖率10个评价指标建立了基于正态云的评判模型。并以三条实测泥石流沟为例,对熵权法进行改进获取了各评价指标的权重,根据实测值利用正态云发生器得到评价指标的隶属度矩阵,再结合权重求得综合确定度,从而判断各条泥石流沟的易发性。
In order to solve the problem of randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process of debris flow,10 evaluation indexes,such as maximum output,frequency of debris flow,basin area,main groove length,maximum relative height difference,loose source reserves,length ratio of mud sand supply section,daily maximum rainfall,population density and vegetation coverage,were selected to establish a model of evaluation based on normal cloud. Taking three measured debris flow gullies as an example,the weight of each evaluation index is obtained by improved the entropy weight method. According to the measured values,the membership degree matrix of the evaluation index is obtained by using the normal cloud generator. Then,the comprehensive determination degree is obtained by combining the weights,so as to judge the vulnerability of each debris flow ditch.
In order to solve the problem of randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process of debris flow,10 evaluation indexes,such as maximum output,frequency of debris flow,basin area,main groove length,maximum relative height difference,loose source reserves,length ratio of mud sand supply section,daily maximum rainfall,population density and vegetation coverage,were selected to establish a model of evaluation based on normal cloud. Taking three measured debris flow gullies as an example,the weight of each evaluation index is obtained by improved the entropy weight method. According to the measured values,the membership degree matrix of the evaluation index is obtained by using the normal cloud generator. Then,the comprehensive determination degree is obtained by combining the weights,so as to judge the vulnerability of each debris flow ditch.
引文
[1]池春青,徐永年,刘卉芳,等.泥石流危险性评价浅析[J].中国农村水利水电,2008(8):44-47.
[2]王念秦,姚勇.基于模糊数学和权的最小平方法的泥石流易发性评价方法[J].灾害学,2008(2):5-9.
[3]李大鸣,罗浩,刘江川,等.基于粗糙集理论的泥石流危险度评价模型[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(6):34-39.
[4]魏斌斌,赵其华,韩刚,等.基于灰色关联法的地震灾区的泥石流危险性评价---以北川县泥石流为例[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(4):525-533.
[5]孟凡奇,李广杰,汪茜.最优组合赋权法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2009,40(22):40-42.
[6]曹禄来,徐林荣,陈舒阳,等.基于模糊神经网络的泥石流危险性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2014,41(2):143-147.
[7]欧阳森,石怡理.改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):156-159.
[8]刘希林,张松林,唐川.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究[J].水土保持学报,1993(2):20-25.
[9]DZ/T 0220-2006,泥石流灾害防治工程勘察规范[S].
[2]王念秦,姚勇.基于模糊数学和权的最小平方法的泥石流易发性评价方法[J].灾害学,2008(2):5-9.
[3]李大鸣,罗浩,刘江川,等.基于粗糙集理论的泥石流危险度评价模型[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(6):34-39.
[4]魏斌斌,赵其华,韩刚,等.基于灰色关联法的地震灾区的泥石流危险性评价---以北川县泥石流为例[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(4):525-533.
[5]孟凡奇,李广杰,汪茜.最优组合赋权法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2009,40(22):40-42.
[6]曹禄来,徐林荣,陈舒阳,等.基于模糊神经网络的泥石流危险性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2014,41(2):143-147.
[7]欧阳森,石怡理.改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):156-159.
[8]刘希林,张松林,唐川.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究[J].水土保持学报,1993(2):20-25.
[9]DZ/T 0220-2006,泥石流灾害防治工程勘察规范[S].