辽宁省2017年春节期间空气质量变化特征及预报准确性分析
摘要
利用气象数据、PM2.5等污染物浓度数据、模型预报结果以及人工订正预报结果,对辽宁省2017年春节期间(1月27日—2月2日)的空气质量变化特征及预测预报准确性进行分析。结果表明,除夕(27日)夜间至初一(28日)凌晨空气质量出现短时恶化,可能与烟花爆竹集中燃放有关;初一数值模型预报结果与实际空气质量偏差较大,主要原因是未考虑烟花爆竹燃放等排放源急剧增加的影响,人工订正后预报效果较好。
To analyze the characteristics of air quality changes and forecasting accuracy during the Spring Festival of Liaoning Province(January 27 th-February 2 nd)by using the meteorological data,PM2.5 and other pollutant concentration data,model predictions and artificial forecasting results. The results showed that the air quality appeared to be short-term deteriorating from New Year′s Eve(January 27 th)to January 28 th early in the morning,it maybe related to the centralized discharge of fireworks and firecrackers. The numerical model prediction result on January 28 thhas an obvious deviation from the actual air quality,the main reason is that the effect of drastic increase of discharge sources such as fireworks and firecrackers has not been considered,and the forecasting is better after taking an artificial correction.
To analyze the characteristics of air quality changes and forecasting accuracy during the Spring Festival of Liaoning Province(January 27 th-February 2 nd)by using the meteorological data,PM2.5 and other pollutant concentration data,model predictions and artificial forecasting results. The results showed that the air quality appeared to be short-term deteriorating from New Year′s Eve(January 27 th)to January 28 th early in the morning,it maybe related to the centralized discharge of fireworks and firecrackers. The numerical model prediction result on January 28 thhas an obvious deviation from the actual air quality,the main reason is that the effect of drastic increase of discharge sources such as fireworks and firecrackers has not been considered,and the forecasting is better after taking an artificial correction.
引文
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[4]叶斯琪,陈多宏,谢敏,等.珠三角区域空气质量预报方法及预报效果评估[J].环境监控与预警,2016,8(3):10-13.
[5]王晓彦,刘冰,李健军,等.区域环境空气质量预报的一般方法和基本准则[J].中国环境监测,2015,31(1):134-138.