摘要
FTA(故障树)分析法是故障诊断领域的一种重要方法,但它在定量分析的过程中存在着基本事件(使用Xi代替,下同)故障概率不确定而无法直接获取的问题。为此本文引入层次分析法(AHP)和三角模糊数(TFN)理论,利用Xi的故障率(次/106小时)和评价者自身存在的模糊性,通过层次分析法得出Xi的故障概率基础数据,通过三角模糊数理论求得Xi的故障概率三角模糊数,从而解决了FTA定量分析中存在的问题,并将AHP-TFN应用到催化裂化装置中完成了反应-再生系统FTA模型的定量分析。
FTA(Fault Tree) analysis is an important method in the field of fault diagnosis. However, in the process of quantitative analysis, it has the problem that the probability of basic events is uncertain and can not be obtained directly.Therefore, analytic hierarchy process and triangular fuzzy number theory are introduced to calculate the failure probability of basic events(times per 106 hours) and the fuzziness of the evaluators themselves. The basic data of failure probability of basic equipment are obtained by analytic hierarchy process.The fuzzy number of basic event failure probability is obtained by triangular fuzzy number theory, and successfully solves the problems in the quantitative analysis of FTA model. The quantitative analysis of FTA model of reaction-regeneration system was completed by applying AHP-TFN to catalytic cracking unit.
引文
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