氮元素施用与农户粮食生产效率:来自全国农村固定观察点数据的证据
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摘要
本文采用2003～2015年全国农村固定观察点的大样本数据,构建相关随机效应模型(Correlated Random Effect)尽可能降低传统随机前沿生产函数中一步法的内生性问题,实证分析氮元素施用对农户家庭层面"加总"粮食生产效率的影响。在清理数据的过程中,本文对全国农村固定观察点数据可能存在的面板数据衔接偏误问题进行纠正,进一步检验了计量分析结论的稳健性。研究结果表明,中国农户粮食生产过程中氮元素施用过量,对粮食生产效率具有显著的负向影响,且这一结论是稳健的。氮元素施用对粮食作物生产效率的负向影响存在着异质性,对不同经营规模农户的影响效果是显著的,但对不同区域农户的影响效果并不显著。基于实证研究结论,本文提出了适当降低氮元素施用量的政策建议,即为农户施肥提供技术指导,深入推进化肥减量化和有机肥替代行动,健全化肥相关管理条例与科学施用的指导办法。
引文
(1)Aigner,D.,C. A. K. Lovell and P. Schmidt,1977,“Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Mod?els”,Journal of Econometrics,Vol. 6,No. 1,pp.21~37.
(2)Alvarez,A. and C. Arias,2004,“Technical Efficiency and Farm Size:A Conditional Analysis”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 30,No. 3,pp.241~250.
(3)Battese,G. E. and T. J. Coelli,1995,“A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data”,Empirical Economics,Vol. 20,No. 2,pp.325~332.
(4)Chamberlain,G.,1980,“Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data”,Review of Economic Studies,Vol. 47,No. 1,pp.225~238.
(5)Fan,S.,1997,“Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture:New Measurement and Evidence”,Food Policy,Vol.22,No. 3,pp.213~228.
(6)Gong,B.,2018,“Agricultural Reforms and Production in China:Changes in Provincial Production Function and Productivity in1978~2015”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol. 132,pp.18~31.
(7)Hayami,Y. and V. W. Ruttan,1985,“Agricultural Development:An International Perspective 2nd Edition”,Baltimore,Md/Lon?don:The Johns Hopkins Press.
(8)Hsieh,C. T. and P. J. Klenow,2009,“Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol. 124,No. 4,pp.1403~1448.
(9)Hu,R.,J. Cao,J. Huang,S. Peng,J. Huang,X. Zhong,Y. Zou,J. Yang and R. Buresh,2007,“Farmer Participatory Testing of Stan?dard and Modified Site-specific Nitrogen Management for Irrigated Rice in China”,Agricultural Systems,Vol. 94,No. 2,pp.331~340.
(10)Huang,J.,R. Hu,J. Cao and S. Rozelle,2008,“Training Programs and In-the-field Guidance to Reduce China's Overuse of Fer?tilizer without Hurting Profitability”,Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,Vol. 63,No. 5,pp.165A~167A.
(11)Huang,J. and S. Rozelle,1996,“Technological Change:Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Growth in China's Rural Econ?omy”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol. 49,No. 2,pp.337~369.
(12)Jin,S.,H. Ma,J. Huang,R. Hu and S. Rozelle,2010,“Productivity,Efficiency and Technical Change:Measuring the Perfor?mance of China’s Transforming Agriculture”,Journal of Productivity Analysis,Vol. 33,No. 3,pp.191~207.
(13)Ju,X,G. Xing,X. Chen,S. Zhang,L. Zhang,X. Liu,Z. Cui,B. Yin,P. Christie,Z. Zhu and F. Zhang,2009,“Reducing Environ?mental Risk by Improving N Management in Intensive Chinese Agricultural Systems”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,Vol. 106,No. 9,pp.3041~3046.
(14)Khanal,U.,C. Wilson,S. Shankar,V. Hoang and B. Lee,2018,“Farm Performance Analysis:Technical Efficiencies and Technol?ogy Gaps of Nepalese Farmers in Different Agro-ecological Regions”,Land Use Policy,Vol. 76,pp.645~653.
(15)Latruffe,L.,B. E. Bravo-Ureta,A. Carpentier,Y. Desjeux and V. Moreira,2017,“Subsidies and Technical Efficiency in Agricul?ture:Evidence from European Dairy Farms”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol. 99,No. 3,pp.783~799.
(16)Lin,J. Y.,1992,“Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China”,American Economic Review,Vol. 82,No. 1,pp.34~51.
(17)Mekonnen,D. K.,D. J. Spielman,E. G. Fonsah and J. H. Dorfman,2015,“Innovation Systems and Technical Efficiency in Devel?oping-country Agriculture”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 46,No. 5,pp. 689~702.
(18)Mundlak,Y.,1978,“On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data”,Econometrica,Vol. 46,No. 1,pp. 69~85.
(19)Oyekale,A. S.,2012,“Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Agriculture and Technical Efficiency of Cocoa Farmers in South-West Nigeria”,Journal of Human Ecology,Vol. 40,No. 2,pp.143~148.
(20)Tirkaso,W. and S. Hess,2018,“Does Commercialisation Drive Technical Efficiency Improvements in Ethiopian Subsistence Agri?culture?”,African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Vol. 13,No. 1,pp.44~57.
(21)Walder,A G.,2002,“Income Determination and Market Opportunity in Rural China,1978~1996”,Journal of Comparative Eco?nomics,Vol. 30,No. 2,pp.354~375.
(22)Wang,S.,F. Tuan,F. Gale,A. Somwaru and J. Hansen,2013,“China's Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth in 1985–2007:A Multilateral Comparison”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 44,No. 2,pp.241~251.
(23)Xin,X.,T. Lin,X. Liu,G. Wan and Y. Zhang,2013,“The Impacts of Climate Change on the People's Republic of China's Grain Output:Regional and Crop Perspective”,China Agricultural Economic Review,Vol. 5,No. 4,pp.434~458.
(24)Yao,S. and Z. Liu,1998,“Determinants of Grain Production and Technical Efficiency in China”,Journal of Agricultural Econom?ics,Vol. 49,No. 2,pp.171~184.
(25)Yang,J.,H. Wang,S. Jin,K. Chen,J. Riedinger and C. Peng,2016,“Migration,Local Off-farm Employment and Agricultural Pro?duction Efficiency:Evidence from China”,Journal of Productivity Analysis,Vol. 45,No. 3,pp.247~259.
(26)Zhang,J.,L. Gan,L. C. Xu and Y. Yao,2014,“Health Shocks,Village Elections and Household Income:Evidence from Rural China”,China Economic Review,Vol. 30,pp.155~168.
(27)Zhu,Z. L. and D. L. Chen,2002,“Nitrogen Fertilizer Use in China-Contributions to Food Production,Impacts on the Environ?ment and Best Management Strategies”,Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,Vol. 63,No.(2~3),pp.117~127.
(28)Zhu,X. and A. O. Lansink,2010,“Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden”,Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol. 61,No. 3,pp.545~564.
(29)程名望、史清华、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩:《农户收入差距及其根源:模型与实证》,《管理世界》,2015年第7期。
(30)程名望、史清华、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩:《市场化、政治身份及其收入效应——来自中国农户的证据》,《管理世界》,2016年第3期。
(31)高鸣、宋洪远:《粮食生产技术效率的空间收敛及功能区差异——兼论技术扩散的空间涟漪效应》,《管理世界》,2014年第7期。
(32)孔祥智、张琛、张效榕:《要素禀赋变化与农业资本有机构成提高——对1978年以来中国农业发展路径的解释》,《管理世界》,2018年第10期。
(33)仇焕广、栾昊、李瑾、汪阳洁:《风险规避对农户化肥过量施用行为的影响》,《中国农村经济》,2014年第3期。
(34)速水佑次郎、神门善久:《农业经济论(新版)》,中国农业出版社,2003年。
(35)王建英、陈志钢、黄祖辉、Thomas Reardon:《转型时期土地生产率与农户经营规模关系再考察》,《管理世界》,2015年第9期。
(36)王祖力、肖海峰:《化肥施用对粮食产量增长的作用分析》,《农业经济问题》,2008年第8期。
(37)张琛、彭超、孔祥智:《农户分化的演化逻辑、历史演变与未来展望》,《改革》,2019年第2期。
(38)张利庠、彭辉、靳兴初:《不同阶段化肥施用量对我国粮食产量的影响分析——基于1952~2006年30个省份的面板数据》,《农业技术经济》,2008年第4期。
(39)张元红:《改革以来中国农业的增长与要素贡献》,《中国农村经济》,1996年第5期。
(40)朱喜、史清华、盖庆恩:《要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率》,《经济研究》,2011年第5期。
(1)根据中国第三次全国农业普查综合资料计算,数字截止到2016年底。
(2)之所以选择将粮食作物产值进行加总,主要是考虑到不同作物品种的产量存在差异,倘若直接按照产量加总起来会存在偏误。虽然采用产值加总不是最优的选择方式,但仍是一种可行的办法。这一点在Hsieh和Klenow(2009)对制造业全要素生产率跨国测算中予以介绍。本文选择将粮食作物的产值进行加总。
(3)考虑是否加入劳动力雇佣比例是因为过去中国农业的发展是建立在低劳动力成本的基础上,随着劳动力成本的上升,农户生产行为方式也发生着转变,劳动力雇佣比例能够反映出农户粮食生产过程中劳动力的构成情况。
(4)综合机械化水平是按照机耕、机播和机收水平0.4、0.3、0.3的权重加权计算而得。其中,2015年小麦机耕、机播和机收水平分别为97.06%、87.54%和95.23%,玉米机耕、机播和机收水平分别为98.94%、42.26%和86.21%,水稻机耕、机播和机收水平分别为89.92%、86.62%和64.18%。
(2)Alvarez,A. and C. Arias,2004,“Technical Efficiency and Farm Size:A Conditional Analysis”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 30,No. 3,pp.241~250.
(3)Battese,G. E. and T. J. Coelli,1995,“A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data”,Empirical Economics,Vol. 20,No. 2,pp.325~332.
(4)Chamberlain,G.,1980,“Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data”,Review of Economic Studies,Vol. 47,No. 1,pp.225~238.
(5)Fan,S.,1997,“Production and Productivity Growth in Chinese Agriculture:New Measurement and Evidence”,Food Policy,Vol.22,No. 3,pp.213~228.
(6)Gong,B.,2018,“Agricultural Reforms and Production in China:Changes in Provincial Production Function and Productivity in1978~2015”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol. 132,pp.18~31.
(7)Hayami,Y. and V. W. Ruttan,1985,“Agricultural Development:An International Perspective 2nd Edition”,Baltimore,Md/Lon?don:The Johns Hopkins Press.
(8)Hsieh,C. T. and P. J. Klenow,2009,“Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol. 124,No. 4,pp.1403~1448.
(9)Hu,R.,J. Cao,J. Huang,S. Peng,J. Huang,X. Zhong,Y. Zou,J. Yang and R. Buresh,2007,“Farmer Participatory Testing of Stan?dard and Modified Site-specific Nitrogen Management for Irrigated Rice in China”,Agricultural Systems,Vol. 94,No. 2,pp.331~340.
(10)Huang,J.,R. Hu,J. Cao and S. Rozelle,2008,“Training Programs and In-the-field Guidance to Reduce China's Overuse of Fer?tilizer without Hurting Profitability”,Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,Vol. 63,No. 5,pp.165A~167A.
(11)Huang,J. and S. Rozelle,1996,“Technological Change:Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Growth in China's Rural Econ?omy”,Journal of Development Economics,Vol. 49,No. 2,pp.337~369.
(12)Jin,S.,H. Ma,J. Huang,R. Hu and S. Rozelle,2010,“Productivity,Efficiency and Technical Change:Measuring the Perfor?mance of China’s Transforming Agriculture”,Journal of Productivity Analysis,Vol. 33,No. 3,pp.191~207.
(13)Ju,X,G. Xing,X. Chen,S. Zhang,L. Zhang,X. Liu,Z. Cui,B. Yin,P. Christie,Z. Zhu and F. Zhang,2009,“Reducing Environ?mental Risk by Improving N Management in Intensive Chinese Agricultural Systems”,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,Vol. 106,No. 9,pp.3041~3046.
(14)Khanal,U.,C. Wilson,S. Shankar,V. Hoang and B. Lee,2018,“Farm Performance Analysis:Technical Efficiencies and Technol?ogy Gaps of Nepalese Farmers in Different Agro-ecological Regions”,Land Use Policy,Vol. 76,pp.645~653.
(15)Latruffe,L.,B. E. Bravo-Ureta,A. Carpentier,Y. Desjeux and V. Moreira,2017,“Subsidies and Technical Efficiency in Agricul?ture:Evidence from European Dairy Farms”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol. 99,No. 3,pp.783~799.
(16)Lin,J. Y.,1992,“Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China”,American Economic Review,Vol. 82,No. 1,pp.34~51.
(17)Mekonnen,D. K.,D. J. Spielman,E. G. Fonsah and J. H. Dorfman,2015,“Innovation Systems and Technical Efficiency in Devel?oping-country Agriculture”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 46,No. 5,pp. 689~702.
(18)Mundlak,Y.,1978,“On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data”,Econometrica,Vol. 46,No. 1,pp. 69~85.
(19)Oyekale,A. S.,2012,“Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Agriculture and Technical Efficiency of Cocoa Farmers in South-West Nigeria”,Journal of Human Ecology,Vol. 40,No. 2,pp.143~148.
(20)Tirkaso,W. and S. Hess,2018,“Does Commercialisation Drive Technical Efficiency Improvements in Ethiopian Subsistence Agri?culture?”,African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Vol. 13,No. 1,pp.44~57.
(21)Walder,A G.,2002,“Income Determination and Market Opportunity in Rural China,1978~1996”,Journal of Comparative Eco?nomics,Vol. 30,No. 2,pp.354~375.
(22)Wang,S.,F. Tuan,F. Gale,A. Somwaru and J. Hansen,2013,“China's Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth in 1985–2007:A Multilateral Comparison”,Agricultural Economics,Vol. 44,No. 2,pp.241~251.
(23)Xin,X.,T. Lin,X. Liu,G. Wan and Y. Zhang,2013,“The Impacts of Climate Change on the People's Republic of China's Grain Output:Regional and Crop Perspective”,China Agricultural Economic Review,Vol. 5,No. 4,pp.434~458.
(24)Yao,S. and Z. Liu,1998,“Determinants of Grain Production and Technical Efficiency in China”,Journal of Agricultural Econom?ics,Vol. 49,No. 2,pp.171~184.
(25)Yang,J.,H. Wang,S. Jin,K. Chen,J. Riedinger and C. Peng,2016,“Migration,Local Off-farm Employment and Agricultural Pro?duction Efficiency:Evidence from China”,Journal of Productivity Analysis,Vol. 45,No. 3,pp.247~259.
(26)Zhang,J.,L. Gan,L. C. Xu and Y. Yao,2014,“Health Shocks,Village Elections and Household Income:Evidence from Rural China”,China Economic Review,Vol. 30,pp.155~168.
(27)Zhu,Z. L. and D. L. Chen,2002,“Nitrogen Fertilizer Use in China-Contributions to Food Production,Impacts on the Environ?ment and Best Management Strategies”,Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,Vol. 63,No.(2~3),pp.117~127.
(28)Zhu,X. and A. O. Lansink,2010,“Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden”,Journal of Agricultural Economics,Vol. 61,No. 3,pp.545~564.
(29)程名望、史清华、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩:《农户收入差距及其根源:模型与实证》,《管理世界》,2015年第7期。
(30)程名望、史清华、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩:《市场化、政治身份及其收入效应——来自中国农户的证据》,《管理世界》,2016年第3期。
(31)高鸣、宋洪远:《粮食生产技术效率的空间收敛及功能区差异——兼论技术扩散的空间涟漪效应》,《管理世界》,2014年第7期。
(32)孔祥智、张琛、张效榕:《要素禀赋变化与农业资本有机构成提高——对1978年以来中国农业发展路径的解释》,《管理世界》,2018年第10期。
(33)仇焕广、栾昊、李瑾、汪阳洁:《风险规避对农户化肥过量施用行为的影响》,《中国农村经济》,2014年第3期。
(34)速水佑次郎、神门善久:《农业经济论(新版)》,中国农业出版社,2003年。
(35)王建英、陈志钢、黄祖辉、Thomas Reardon:《转型时期土地生产率与农户经营规模关系再考察》,《管理世界》,2015年第9期。
(36)王祖力、肖海峰:《化肥施用对粮食产量增长的作用分析》,《农业经济问题》,2008年第8期。
(37)张琛、彭超、孔祥智:《农户分化的演化逻辑、历史演变与未来展望》,《改革》,2019年第2期。
(38)张利庠、彭辉、靳兴初:《不同阶段化肥施用量对我国粮食产量的影响分析——基于1952~2006年30个省份的面板数据》,《农业技术经济》,2008年第4期。
(39)张元红:《改革以来中国农业的增长与要素贡献》,《中国农村经济》,1996年第5期。
(40)朱喜、史清华、盖庆恩:《要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率》,《经济研究》,2011年第5期。
(1)根据中国第三次全国农业普查综合资料计算,数字截止到2016年底。
(2)之所以选择将粮食作物产值进行加总,主要是考虑到不同作物品种的产量存在差异,倘若直接按照产量加总起来会存在偏误。虽然采用产值加总不是最优的选择方式,但仍是一种可行的办法。这一点在Hsieh和Klenow(2009)对制造业全要素生产率跨国测算中予以介绍。本文选择将粮食作物的产值进行加总。
(3)考虑是否加入劳动力雇佣比例是因为过去中国农业的发展是建立在低劳动力成本的基础上,随着劳动力成本的上升,农户生产行为方式也发生着转变,劳动力雇佣比例能够反映出农户粮食生产过程中劳动力的构成情况。
(4)综合机械化水平是按照机耕、机播和机收水平0.4、0.3、0.3的权重加权计算而得。其中,2015年小麦机耕、机播和机收水平分别为97.06%、87.54%和95.23%,玉米机耕、机播和机收水平分别为98.94%、42.26%和86.21%,水稻机耕、机播和机收水平分别为89.92%、86.62%和64.18%。