SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System
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  • 作者:Gang He ; Anne-Perrine Avrin ; James H. Nelson ; Josiah Johnston ; Ana Mileva ; Jianwei Tian ; Daniel M. Kammen
  • 机构:Gang He*†‡§, Anne-Perrine Avrin‡§, James H. Nelson⊥, Josiah Johnston‡§, Ana Mileva⊥, Jianwei Tian#, and Daniel M. Kammen*‡§∥ † Departmentof Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11794, United States‡Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, §Energy and Resources Group, and ∥Goldman Schoolof Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, United States⊥ Energyand Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3), San Francisco, California 94104, United States# China NationalInstitute of Standardization, Beijing 100191, P.R. China
  • 出版单位:Environmental Science & Technology
  • 分类:清洁能源,技术方法
  • 年:2016
  • 期:11
  • 资源类型:期刊论文
  • 来源:ACS
We present an integrated model, SWITCH-China, of the Chinese power sector with which to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to long-term decarbonization scenario while accounting for very-short-term renewable variability. On the basis of the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ∼$40/tCO2. Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal; however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal energy (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and the social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enabling the transition at a reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.

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