摘要
我国是城乡二元经济结构较为典型的发展中国家。农业规模庞大,但产业素质不高;农村幅员广袤,但经济欠发达;农业人口众多,但收入普遍偏低。如何改变这种现状是摆在我国理论研究者、政策决策者和政策实践者面前的重要课题。本论文试图从金融的视角分析当前经济转轨期我国农村金融体制存在的问题,着重探讨农村金融体系创新与制度安排,以充分发挥农村金融对农业经济增长的促进作用,实现农村金融发展与农业经济增长良性互动。
本论文的基本结构是:共九章,第1章为引言,第9章为总结。第2章到第8章是论文的主体部分。第2章对国内外有关农村金融的研究文献进行了梳理,并做相应述评;第3章从全球视角对发达国家和发展中国家农村金融体系的实践和特征进行概述、归纳和总结;第4章通过计量模型实证考察当前农村金融体系下我国农村经济增长与金融发展的关系;第5章从定量和定性两个角度描述与探讨我国农村金融体系发展的现状和存在的问题;第6章提出我国农村金融体系设计与创新的整体框架;第7章提出了我国农村金融体系设计与创新所必需的微观和宏观制度保障;第8章重点了考察新型农村金融机构的最新进展情况,并通过具体的案例透视当前新型农村金融的优势和面临的困难,进而探讨我国新型农村金融机构未来发展方向和需要遵循的一些基本原则。从整体结构看,本论文遵循“提出问题——文献述评——分析问题——解决问题”一般理论研究模式,以使论文的分析和研究系统、深入、科学和具有实践性。各章具体研究内容概括如下:
第2章对现有农村金融研究理论进行系统地梳理与评析,是本文研究的出发点和基础。理论界有关农村金融方面的研究,主要经历了农业信贷补贴论、农村金融市场论和不完全竞争市场论三个阶段的发展历程。诸多国内外学者在此基础上,对农村金融的理论问题做了进一步的深入研究,包括农村金融体制、经济增长与金融发展之间的关系、金融约束、金融结构、金融功能和金融效率等内容。但是,对发展中国家特别是象中国这样的发展中国家的农村金融问题的研究还不够系统和深入。比如,农村金融体系的创新和制度安排,这正是本文要研究的重点。
第3章从全球视角对发达国家和发展中国家农村金融体系的实践和特征进行了描述、归纳和总结。在发达国家中,重点选取了美国、法国、德国和日本,发展中国家重点选择了印度和泰国,详细地介绍各国农村金融的演变历程、机构建设、机构功能和效果。考察发现,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,各国逐渐形成了政府主导的由政策性金融、合作金融和商业性金融构成的农村金融体系。该体系通过金融手段,对农业发展、农村建设和农民增收等方面提供了强大的金融服务与支持,发挥了重要的作用。
第4章通过计量模型实证考察当前农村金融体系下我国农村经济增长与金融发展的关系。首先从实证分析角度对金融发展与经济增长关系的研究文献进行了综述,其次构建了三个三变量VAR模型对我国金融发展与农业经济增长关系进行实证研究,并基于以上实证研究分析我国农村金融体系的演变历程。通过包括大农业(农林牧副渔)、农业和农民收入的VAR模型分析发现,我国的农村金融发展与农村经济增长间不存在长期均衡关系,农业贷款与农林牧副渔总产值间呈负相关关系,我国农村金融没有在改革开放后的农村经济增长中起到应有的作用,而我国的间接农村金融服务——乡镇企业贷款在促进农村经济增长中发挥着重要作用。同时,农村金融发展没有显著的提高我国农民人均收入水平。这一实证研究具有很强的现实意义,表明我国加快推进农村金融体系改革的必要性,并探索了改革的目标方向。
第5章详细分析我国农村金融体系的现状与问题。本章首先详细回顾了我国经济与金融的制度变迁;接下来,对我国农村金融的供需、农村金融体系与改革的现状与问题进行了深入分析;在此基础上,体现有农村金融组织体系中的机构组成、业务状况和涉农业务。在此基础上,以引论方式概括性提出了解决我国农村金融困境的宏观政策。
第6章就我国农村金融组织体系建设问题进行了深入分析。针对当前金融组织体系建设中的三种不同理论——金融机构范式、金融功能范式、金融创新理论,本文对它们进行了对比,认为在转轨时期,我国面临着金融环境的快速变化和金融机构的频繁调整,从“功能观”的视角来构架我国的农村金融体系更具可行性,也能为我们分析金融问题提供更加稳定和持久的参考架构。在此基础上,论文结合当前农村金融的发展现状与趋势,以金融“功能观”为理论基础,遵循从“外部环境——功能——机构——绩效”的设计路径,全面探讨了我国农村金融体系的整体设计与创新。
第7章针对我国农村金融组织体系的设计与创新,从微观制度安排与宏观制度安排两个角度,集中阐述以市场导向、资本结构、治理结构、风险管理、金融监管等为主的微观制度安排和以政府职能、财政补贴、央行支持、税收优惠、信用建设等为主的宏观制度安排在我国农村金融组织体系建设和创新中的地位作用,并提出具体的、有针对性的措施。认为只有充分有效的微观制度与宏观制度相结合,才能保证我国农村金融组织体系的创新持续进行,但微观制度安排在我国农村金融制度安排中起基础性作用。
第8章重点考察了当前新型农村金融机构成立的最新进展情况,包括村镇银行、贷款公司、农村资金互助社和小额贷款公司各的设立成立情况,并以吉林省四平市资金互助社的成立情况为具体案例,透视当前新型农村金融的优势和面临的问题,进而探讨我国新型农村金融机构未来发展方向和需要遵循的一些基本原则。
本文相对详细地论述了与我国农村金融组织体系创新和制度安排相关的理论问题、实践问题和操作问题。与已有的研究相比,本论文主要做了以下几方面的创新工作:
1.论文利用多变量计量模型综合分析在当前农村金融体系下我国农村金融发展与农业经济增长的关系。与已有的研究文献不同,本文首次构建了三个三变量VAR模型,综合考察改革开放以来我国农村金融发展与农业经济增长(大农业(农林牧副渔)、农业和农民收入)间的关系。计量模型结果表明,我国的农村金融发展与农村经济增长间不存在长期均衡关系,改革开放后我国农村金融体系没有对农村经济增长起到应有的促进作用,农村金融发展没有显著地提高我国农民人均收入水平。这一实证研究具有很强的现实意义,表明我国加快推进农村金融体系创新及其相应制度改革的紧迫性。
2.论文从理论和实践角度全面阐述了我国推进农村金融组织体系创新必要性、可能性和可能产生的绩效。论文认为我国农村金融组织体系创新要以金融“功能观”为理论基础,遵循从“外部环境——功能——机构——绩效”的设计路径,全面探讨了我国农村金融体系的整体设计与创新。
3.论文全面、详细阐述了保障我国农村金融组织体系创新持续进行的微宏观制度安排。论文认为以市场导向、资本结构、治理结构、风险管理、金融监管等为主要的微观制度安排和以政府职能、财政补贴、央行支持、税收优惠、信用建设等为主的宏观制度安排对保障我国农村金融组织体系建设和创新的持续进行具有重要意义,并提出了具体的、有针对性的政策措施。
4.论文还重点考察新型农村金融机构的最新进展情况,并通过具体的案例透视当前新型农村金融的优势和面临的困难,进而探讨我国新型农村金融机构的未来发展方向和需要遵循的一些基本原则。
China is a developing country with a typical rural-urban dual economic structure, huge-scaled agriculture of low quality, vast rural areas economically underdeveloped, and a large agricultural population generally with low income. How to promote rural development and increase the income of rural residents has remained an exceptionally important topic for Chinese theory researchers, policy makers and practitioners. This dissertation attempts to analyze the problems with China's rural financial system, and to discuss innovations in the rural financial system and the entailed institutional arrangments in the transition period for the purpose of enhancing the role of rural finance in rural economic development to achieve favorable interactions between development of the rural financial system and rural economic growth.
The dissertation is composed of 9 chapters. Chapter 1 is an introduction and chapter 9 the conclusion. Chapter 2-8 make up the body of the dissertation. Chapter 2 reviews the literature in rural finance from both at home abroad, Chapter 3 concisely presents, outlines the main features of and draw conclusions from rural financial systems of both developing and developed countries, Chapter 4, after building an econometric model, analyzes the relationship between rural economic growth and rural financial development in Chin, Chapter 5, with a quantitative and qualitative description of the current developments of the rural financial system, elaborates its major problems. Chapter 6 proposes an overall framework for innovating and redesigning China's rural financial system. Chapter 7 recommends some indispensable macroscopic and microscopic institutional guarantees for innovating in and redesigning China's rural financial system. Chapter 8 discusses the latest developments of China's rural financial institutions, identifies the advantages of some new rural financial institutions and analyzes the problems with their further development. Then the basic orientation of the development of rural financial institutions is discussed and some basic principles that should be followed. On the whole, this dissertation has followed the general research logic of "identifying the problem, reviewing literature, analyzing problems and recommending solutions", which has ensured the dissertation to be of systematic, in-depth and scientific research and analysis, and be pragmatic value. The gist of each of the 7 major chapters is as follows:
Chapter 2, as the beginning and basis of this thesis, reviews the rural financial study systematically. There are three periods in the historical evolution of the rural financial study, which are agriculture credit subsidy theory, rural financial market theory, and imperfect competition market theory. Based on the three theories, Many domestic and foreign researchers have further explored the rural financial theories, which includ rural financial system, the relationships between economy growth and finance development, financial restraint, financial structure, financial function and financial efficiency, and so on. But the study on the rural finance for the developing countries, especially for China, isn't systematic and in-depth enough, such as the study on the innovations and institutional arrangement of the rural financial system, which is the study focus of this thesis.
Chapter 3 summarizes the practices and features of the rural financial system in the developing and developed countries from the global angle. This chapter chooses the USA, France, German and Japan from the developed countries, India and Thailand from the developing countries as samples to introduce in detail the evolution, institutional construction, institutional function and performance in their rural finance. Whatever developing or developed countries, we discover the facts from the interviews that the countries have set up government-oriented rural financial systems, which are composed of rural policy finance, rural cooperative finance and rural commercial banks. Those systems provide enough financial services and supports for agricultural development, rural construction and raising the farmers'income through financial measures.
Chapter 4 empirically analyzes the relationship between rural economic growth and financial development with the econometric models under current rural financial framework of China. Firstly, the literatures on the relationship between financial development and economic growth are reviewed from the empirical perspective. Secondly, structural models and three tri-variable VAR models are developed to examine the relationship between financial development and rural economic growth, and the rural financial system evolution of China is also analyzed. Our VAR models incorporating aggregate agriculture (including farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery) shows there isn't long-term equilibrium relationship between rural financial development and economic growth, and a negative nexus between rural loan and comprehensive agriculture, therefore China's rural finance didn't improve the growth of agriculture since Chin's reform and openness. But China's indirect rural finance services (the loans to the town-village enterprises) play an important role in the growth of rural economy. In addition, farmers' incomes per capita also didn't benefit from the rural financial development. These empirical studies are meaningful for the practice and show it is necessary to quicken the reform of the rural financial systems.
Chapter 5 analyzes the institutional components, service structure, agricultural finance service of China's rural financial system. Based on the previous studies, we further analyze the problems facing the rural financial service and rural financial institutions. Our statistic data show Agricultural Bank of China and rural credit cooperatives are the main source of rural finance, specially, the latter is more. Accordingly, the reform of these organizations will influence the fundamental courses of China's rural finance.
Chapter 6 examines the problems existing in process of building China's rural financial organized system. Based on the present three relevant paradigms, namely financial institutional paradigm, financial function paradigm, financial institution paradigm and financial innovation paradigm, and through the contrast of three theories, we argue that in the transition period, there are the rapid changes in china financial environment and frequent adjustments in financial institutions, and it is more feasible to build rural financial system from the "functional paradigm ", which also can provide more stable and enduring reference frame for the deeper analysis of problem, In view of function paradigm, the thesis carries out the objective analysis on the demand characteristics in current China's rural finance and satisfaction degree,and goes further to find out the effective and restrictive factors. On the basis of these, with the current situation and trend of rural finance, the thesis discusses entirely the whole design and innovation of China's rural financial system, taking finance "functional view" as the theoretical basis and following the design route "external environment-function-performance"
Chapter 7 focuses on the function of the micro-institutional arrangement which includes market orientation, capital structure, governance structure, risk management, financial supervision, etc. and the macro-institutional arrangements which cover government function, fiscal subsidies, centre bank's support, preferential tariff, credit building ect. in construction and innovation of China's rural financial organized system, In addition, the author proposes the practical measurements and views that only the effective micro-systematic and macro-systematic arrangements combine with each other,can innovation 1f China's rural financial system be kept sustainable development and what's more important, micro-systematic arrangements play a fundamental role in China's rural financial system.
Chapter 8 investigates the evolution of setting up new financial institution in the rural area since CBRC loosens the critera of acess of financial institution in the rural area, including micro-credit company, town-village bank, credit company and rural financial reciprocal community. And the chapter takes the rural financial reciprocal community in Siping city of Jilin Province as a case to show the advantages and problems of new financial institutions in the rural areas.
The dissertation examines the academic, practical and operating problems concerned with China's rural financial system innovations and institutional arrangement relatively in detail. Different from previous studies, the following innovations are made in the dissertation.
1. The dissertation introduces and reviews rural financial theory and rural financial system which is operating in some countries in detail. Not only can this work deepen our understanding on rural finance, but also set a sound base for future studies. We show the direction for our academic theory and advice of policy by introducing rural financial theory and reviewing the practices. These works are valuable for the dissertation.
2. The dissertation describes and analyses the environment, characteristics of institutions, aggregation, traits and problems on the rural finance of China. We use much data to reflect the tendency, characteristics, relationship among different indexes in China's rural finance. The works can prove a good base for the econometric analysis and policy advices empirically.
3. The dissertation use multi-variable econometric modes to analyze the relationship between the rural financial development and the growth of rural economy. Different from the previous studies, the dissertation developed structural models and three tri-variable VAR models to examine the relationship between financial development and rural economic growth, and the rural financial system evolution in China is also analyzed. Our VAR models incorporating Comprehensive agriculture (including farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery) shows there isn't long-term equilibrium relationship between rural financial development and economic growth, and a negative nexus between rural loan and comprehensive agriculture, therefore China's rural finance didn't improve the growth of agriculture since Chin's reform and openness. These empirical studies are meaningful for the practice and show it is urgent to quicken the reform of the rural financial systems and its goal.
4. The dissertation thoroughly expounds the necessity, possibility and potential performance of China's rural financial system innovations from the academic and practical perspective, and argues that the system innovations should be based on the "functional paradigm, and abide by a routine like "External environment-Function-Institution-Performance ", and analyze the whole design and innovation of China's rural system.
引文
①迟福林,2006,政府转型与民间组织发展,发展(月刊),第1期,pp13-15,第14页。
②张杰,2005,农户、国家与中国农贷制度:一个长期视角,金融研究,第2期,pp1-12,第2页。
①张红宇,2007,对新时期农民组织化几个问题的思考,农业经济问题,第3期,pp4-11.
①戈德·史密斯著:《金融结构与金融发展》,上海三联书店,1990年,第392页
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①王曙光,2006,农村金融与新农村建设,华夏出版社,pp93
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