断层的大地震复发概率研究
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摘要
本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础,以地震孕育过程为研究主线,计算了中国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率,进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。结果表明:鲜水河断裂带、阿尔金断裂带、东昆仑断裂带、小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带,反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区,应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。
Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time and earthquake preparation process,the probabilities of strong earthquake recurrence have been calculated for major active faults in mainland China for different time spans,and the seismic risk on each fault is studied.Results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,Altyn Tagh fault,East Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are obviously bigger than other faults in the mainland,these faults are experiencing high-level states of stress accumulation,and may have high seismic risks of strong earthquake recurrences in the future.
Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time and earthquake preparation process,the probabilities of strong earthquake recurrence have been calculated for major active faults in mainland China for different time spans,and the seismic risk on each fault is studied.Results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,Altyn Tagh fault,East Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are obviously bigger than other faults in the mainland,these faults are experiencing high-level states of stress accumulation,and may have high seismic risks of strong earthquake recurrences in the future.
引文
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[26]毛凤英,张培震.古地震研究中的遂次限定方法和北天山主要断裂带的古地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1994.
[27]冉勇康,邓起东.大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):316-323.
[28]冉洪流.海原断裂带M>6.7地震概率及其震级分布[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):609-615.
[29]冉洪流,何宏林.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(1):153-161.
[30]易桂喜.活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系[J].地震学报,2000,22(5):527-537.
[31]易桂喜.山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):387-395.
[32]李春峰,贺群禄,赵国光.东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征[J].地震学报,2005,25(1):60-67.
[33]许洪泰,闵伟.利用地震矩和实时概率模型对中长期地震危险性进行评价[J].地震研究,2007,30(2):120-126.
[34]李家灵,晁洪太,崔昭文,等.郯庐活断层的分段及其大震危险性分析[J].地震地质,1994,16(2):121-126.
[35]Washburn Z,Arrowsmith J R,Forman S L,et al.Late Holocene earthquake history of the centralAltyn Tagh fault[J].Geological Society of America,2001,29(11):1 051-1 054.
[2]闻学泽.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社,1995,1-150.
[3]Shimazaki K,Nakata T.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes[J].Geophys ResLett,1980,7:279-282.
[4]闻学泽.中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为[J].地震学报,1999,21(4):411-419.
[5]Bakun W H,McEvilly T V.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes[J].J geo-phys Res,1984,B89:3051-3058.
[6]Savage J C,Cockerham R S.Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes in the 1978~1986Bishop-Mammoth lakes sequence,eastern California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,1986,77(4):1347-1358.
[7]Papazachos B C.A time-and magnitude-predictable model for generation of shallow earthquakes inthe Aegean area[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1992,138(2):287-308.
[8]Matthews M V,Ellsworth W L,Reasenberg P A.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92:2 233-2 250.
[9]Nishenko S P,Buland R.A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1987,77:1 382-1 399.
[10]闻学泽.活断层的定量研究与长期地震潜势的概率估计问题[M].北京:地震出版社,1991,174-183.
[11]闻学泽.小江断裂带的破裂分段与地震潜势概率估计[J].地震学报,1993,15(3):322-330.
[12]闻学泽,张培震.地震的原地复发模式理论及有关问题活动断裂研究(5)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[13]闻学泽.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题[J].科学通报,1998,43(14):1 457-1 466.
[14]闻学泽.中国大陆活动断裂段破裂地震复发间隔的经验分布[J].地震学报,1999,21(6):616-622.
[15]闻学泽,汪一鹏.我国活动断裂地震危险性研究的进展和问题[M].北京:地震出版社,1999,1-11.
[16]闻学泽.四川西部鲜水河—安宁河—则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征[J].地震地质,2000,22(3):239-249.
[17]闻学泽.活动断裂的分段地震震级评估.活动断裂研究(8)[J].北京:地震出版社,2001,32-40.
[18]Ellsworth W L.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earth-quake probabilities[J].US Geol Surv Open-File Rept,1999,99-552.
[19]Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.Earthquake probabilities in the San FranciscoBay Region,2002—2031.US Geol Surv Open-File Rept,2003,3-214.
[20]张国民,张培震.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J].中国基础科学,2000,10:4-10.
[21]邓起东,张培震,冉永康,等.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学,2002,32(12):1 020-1 030.
[22]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑增刊),2003,33:12-20.
[23]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[24]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震完整性研究(之二)[J].地震学报,1994,16(1):21-27.
[25]张培震,毛凤英.活动断裂定量研究与中长期强震危险性概率评价[M].北京:地震出版社,1996,12-31.
[26]毛凤英,张培震.古地震研究中的遂次限定方法和北天山主要断裂带的古地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1994.
[27]冉勇康,邓起东.大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题[J].地震地质,1999,21(4):316-323.
[28]冉洪流.海原断裂带M>6.7地震概率及其震级分布[J].地震学报,2004,26(6):609-615.
[29]冉洪流,何宏林.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(1):153-161.
[30]易桂喜.活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系[J].地震学报,2000,22(5):527-537.
[31]易桂喜.山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(4):387-395.
[32]李春峰,贺群禄,赵国光.东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征[J].地震学报,2005,25(1):60-67.
[33]许洪泰,闵伟.利用地震矩和实时概率模型对中长期地震危险性进行评价[J].地震研究,2007,30(2):120-126.
[34]李家灵,晁洪太,崔昭文,等.郯庐活断层的分段及其大震危险性分析[J].地震地质,1994,16(2):121-126.
[35]Washburn Z,Arrowsmith J R,Forman S L,et al.Late Holocene earthquake history of the centralAltyn Tagh fault[J].Geological Society of America,2001,29(11):1 051-1 054.
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