基于粘弹库仑应力变化的后续最大地震震级估计及2008、2014年于田2次7.3级地震之间关系的讨论
|
摘要
在前人关于于田地区地壳水平分层模型研究的基础上,结合于田台GPS连续观测资料粗略确定各层的粘滞系数。基于粘弹水平分层模型,分别计算了2008、2014年2次于田7.3级地震的粘弹同震库仑应力变化。基于粘弹库仑应力变化,采用"直接"余震频次的计算方法,得到了区域范围内与主震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的理论地震频次。提出了基于理论与实际地震频次对比以及理论与实际地震频次-距离衰减曲线拟合残差对比估计与主震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的后续最大地震震级的方法。不同方法的计算结果显示,与2008年于田7.3级地震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的最大后续地震震级为MS7.2~7.5,而2014年于田7.3级地震的最大后续震级估计为MS6.3。前者与2014年于田地震7.3的震级非常接近。由于震级相同、空间距离较近、时间间隔较短、区域外力作用相同、2次地震构造关联性较强且具有较明确的应力相互作用等,因而认为2008、2014年2次7.3级地震构成一对广义的双震型地震,这与该区域以往序列类型特点相吻合。对震级下限及G-R关系b值对结果的影响进行了初步讨论,结果显示,当粘弹同震库仑应力变化确定之后,震级下限对后续最大地震震级估计影响不大,但G-R关系b值对结果有较大影响。
On the basis of previous studies on crustal horizontal layered model in the Yutian area,and together with continuous GPS observation of the Yutian seismic station,we roughly estimate viscosity coefficient of each layers. Based on the viscoelastic medium horizontal layered model,the viscoelasticity coseismic Coulomb stress changes of MS7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and2014 in the Yutian area have been calculated separately. The frequency of "direct"aftershock has been calculated from the viscoelasticity coseismic Coulomb stress change,which directly related to the main shock Coulomb stress change in the study area. Further more,we propose a method to estimate the magnitude of the subsequent maximum earthquakes,by comparing the theoretic and actual earthquake frequency. The results show that the magnitude of the subsequent maximum earthquake caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change of 2008 Yutian MS7. 3earthquake lies between MS7. 2 to MS7. 5,much more larger than that of actual earthquake with MS6. 3,but similar to the 2014 Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake. Since two Yutian MS7. 3 earthquakes have the same magnitude,closer spatial distance,shorter time interval,similar stress action and strong tectonic correlation,they can be seen as a generalized doublet events,consisting with the sequence type characteristics in this region. The effects of lower limit of magnitude and b-value of G-R relationship on the results have been discussed preliminary,and it shows that the lower limit of magnitude has little effect,but b-value has a greater influence on the results.
On the basis of previous studies on crustal horizontal layered model in the Yutian area,and together with continuous GPS observation of the Yutian seismic station,we roughly estimate viscosity coefficient of each layers. Based on the viscoelastic medium horizontal layered model,the viscoelasticity coseismic Coulomb stress changes of MS7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and2014 in the Yutian area have been calculated separately. The frequency of "direct"aftershock has been calculated from the viscoelasticity coseismic Coulomb stress change,which directly related to the main shock Coulomb stress change in the study area. Further more,we propose a method to estimate the magnitude of the subsequent maximum earthquakes,by comparing the theoretic and actual earthquake frequency. The results show that the magnitude of the subsequent maximum earthquake caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change of 2008 Yutian MS7. 3earthquake lies between MS7. 2 to MS7. 5,much more larger than that of actual earthquake with MS6. 3,but similar to the 2014 Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake. Since two Yutian MS7. 3 earthquakes have the same magnitude,closer spatial distance,shorter time interval,similar stress action and strong tectonic correlation,they can be seen as a generalized doublet events,consisting with the sequence type characteristics in this region. The effects of lower limit of magnitude and b-value of G-R relationship on the results have been discussed preliminary,and it shows that the lower limit of magnitude has little effect,but b-value has a greater influence on the results.
引文
陈连旺、陆远忠、刘杰等,2001,1996年邢台地震引起的华北地区应力场动态演化过程的三维粘弹性模拟,地震学报,23(5),480~491。
陈向军、上官文明、宋秀青等,2014,新疆全区和分区地壳速度模型的分析,中国地震,30(2),178~187。
程佳、刘杰、甘卫军等,2011,1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的粘弹性触发研究,地球物理报,54(8),1997~2010。
程佳、刘杰、盛书中等,2014,2014年新疆于田MS7.3强震构造背景及其与2008年MS7.3地震之间的关系讨论,中国地震,30(2),143~150。
郝明、王庆良、占伟等,2011,中国东西部地区震后形变有效松弛时间研究,大地测量与地球动力学,36(6),49~53。
贺日政、高锐、李秋生等,2001,新疆天山(独山子)-西昆仑(泉水沟)地学断面地震与重力联合反演地壳构造特征,地球学报,22(6),553~558。
华卫、陈章立、李志雄等,2009,汶川8.0级地震触发与余震活动空间分布研究,地震,29(1),33~39。
冀战波、赵翠萍、王琼等,2014,2008年3月21日新疆于田MS7.3地震破裂过程研究,地震学报,36(3),339~349。
贾若、蒋海昆,2014,基于同震库仑应力变化的汶川地震余震频次研究,中国地震,30(1),74~90。
雷兴林、马胜利、苏金蓉等,2013,汶川地震后中下地壳及上地幔的粘弹性效应引起的应力变化与芦山地震的发生机制,地震地质,35(2),411~422。
马瑾,1987,构造物理学概论,北京:地震出版社。
聂晓红、李莹甄,2010,2008年3月21日新疆于田7.4级地震序列特征及震前部分地震学异常特征,内陆地震,24(1),330~339。
聂晓红、王琼,2014,2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3地震前地震活动特征分析,中国地震,30(2),208~218。
邵志刚、周龙泉、蒋长胜等,2010,2008汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,地球物理学报,53(8),1784~1795。
宋金、周龙泉,2014,2014年于田MS7.3地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响,中国地震,30(2),168~177。
谈洪波、申重阳、玄松柏,2010,地壳分层和地壳厚度对汶川地震同震效应的影响,大地测量与地球动力学,30(4),29~35。
万永革、沈正康、盛书中等,2009,2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响,地震学报,31(2),128~139。
万永革、吴忠良、周公威等,2000,几次复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”问题,地震学报,22(6),568~576。
王庆良、巩守文,1997,由1990年共和7.0级地震震后垂直形变求得的地球介质有效弛豫时间和粘滞系数,地震学报,19(5),480~486。
王绳祖、张四昌、田勤俭,2001,大陆动力学,15~20,北京:地震出版社。
吴小平、黄雍、胡家富等,2008,汶川MS8.0巨震产生完全库仑破裂应力变化及其强余震群,地震研究,32(4),357~365。
新疆地震局,1997,天山地震目录及中强地震震源机制解,内陆地震,11(增刊),612~620。
许才军、汪建军、温扬茂,2009,震后松弛过程的粘弹性模型在1997年MW7.6玛尼地震中的应用研究,武汉大学学报,34(3),253~256。
许建东、赵波、张柳毅等,2011,新疆阿什库勒火山群野外地质科学考察,地震地质,33(3),499~505。
尹光华、蒋靖祥、吴国栋,2008,2008年3月21日于田7.4级地震的构造背景,干旱区地理,31(4),543~549。
张晁军、曹建玲、石耀霖,2008a,从震后形变探讨青藏高原下地壳粘滞系数,中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(10),1250~1257。
张晁军、石耀霖、黄建平,2008b,粘弹性分层和重力作用对地震形变场数值模拟的影响,西北地震学报,30(3),201~213。
张国宏、单新建、李卫东,2008,汶川MS8.0地震库仑破裂应力变化及断层危险性初步研究,地震地质,30(4),935~944。
张先康、赵金仁、张成科等,2002,帕米尔东北侧地壳结构研究,地球物理学报,45(5),665~671。
张勇、许力生、陈运泰等,2014,2014年2月12日于田MW6.9地震破裂过程初步反演:兼论震源机制对地震破裂过程反演的影响,地震学报,36(2),159~164。
朱良玉、王双绪、蒋锋云,2014,利用震后GPS数据反演汶川地区有效黏滞系数,地震学报,36(1),32~41。
朱守彪、蔡永恩,2006,利用GPS观测的时间序列资料反演地壳地幔粘性结构,地球物理学报,49(3),771~777。
Cocco M,Hainzl S,Catalli F,et al,2010,Sensitivity study of forecasted aftershock seismicity based on Coulomb stresscalculation and rate-and state-dependent frictional response,J Geophys Res,115,B05307,doi:10.1029/2009JB006838.
Dieterich J H,1979,Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimental results and constitutive equations,J Geophys Res,84,2161~2168.
Dieterich J H,1981,Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge,in Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks,GeophysMonogr Ser,AGU,Washington,D C,24,103~120.
Dieterich J H,1994,A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering,J GeophysRes,99,2601~2618,doi:10.1029/2009JB006838.
Freed A M,Lin J,1998,Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thust earthquakes,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24393~24409.
Freed A M,Lin J,2001,Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer,Nature,411,180~183.
Hainzl S,Brietzke G B,Zoller G,2010a,Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering,J Geophys Res,115,B11311,doi:10.1029/2010JB007473.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Wang R J,2010b,Impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity,J Geophys Res,115,B05315,doi:10.1029/2008JB006224.
Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E,1998,The static stress change triggering model:Constraints from two southernCalifornia aftershock sequences,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24427~24437.
Harris R A,1998,Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard,J GeophysRes,103,35~53.
Heaton H,1975,Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes,Geophys J R Astr Soc,43,307~326.
Heaton H,1982,Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,72(6),2181~2200.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J,1994,Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,84,935~953.
Kostrov V,1974,Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes,and seiemic flow of rock,Physics of the Solid Earth,21,1~13.
Lin J,Stein R S,2004,Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes,and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults,J Geophys Res,109,B02303,doi:10.1029/2003JB002607.
Nalbant S S,Aurelia H,Geoffrey C P K,1998,Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the north AegeanSea,J Geophys Res,103,24469~24486.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W,1992,Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prietaearthquake,Science,255,1687~1690.
Ruina A,1983,Slip instability and state variable friction laws,J Geophys Res,88,10359~10370.
Stein R S,1999,The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence,Nature,402,605~609.
Stein R S,Aykut A B,James H D,1997,Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stresstriggering,Geophys J Int,128,594~604.
Toda S,Jian L,Mustapha M,2008,12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculatedto increase failure stress andseismicity rate on three majorfault systems,Geophysical Research Letters,35,L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,2003,Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet:A demonstration of time-dependentstress transfer,J Geophys Res,108(B12),2567.
Toda S,Stein R S,Keith R D,et al,2005,Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California:Animations built onearthquake stress transfer,J Geophys Res,110,B05S16,doi:10.1029/2004JB003415.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al,1998,Stress transferred by the 1995,MW=6.9 Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect onaftershocks and future earthquake probabilities,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24543~24565.
Wang R J,Lorenzo M F,Roth F,2006,PSGRN/PSCMP-A new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation,geoid andgravity changes based on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory,Comput Geosci,32(4),527~541.
Zhang C J,Shi Y L,Ma L,et al,2007,A rheological model of post-seismic deformation for the 2001 Kunlun,China earthquake,MW7.8,Geofis Int,46(3),145~154.
陈向军、上官文明、宋秀青等,2014,新疆全区和分区地壳速度模型的分析,中国地震,30(2),178~187。
程佳、刘杰、甘卫军等,2011,1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的粘弹性触发研究,地球物理报,54(8),1997~2010。
程佳、刘杰、盛书中等,2014,2014年新疆于田MS7.3强震构造背景及其与2008年MS7.3地震之间的关系讨论,中国地震,30(2),143~150。
郝明、王庆良、占伟等,2011,中国东西部地区震后形变有效松弛时间研究,大地测量与地球动力学,36(6),49~53。
贺日政、高锐、李秋生等,2001,新疆天山(独山子)-西昆仑(泉水沟)地学断面地震与重力联合反演地壳构造特征,地球学报,22(6),553~558。
华卫、陈章立、李志雄等,2009,汶川8.0级地震触发与余震活动空间分布研究,地震,29(1),33~39。
冀战波、赵翠萍、王琼等,2014,2008年3月21日新疆于田MS7.3地震破裂过程研究,地震学报,36(3),339~349。
贾若、蒋海昆,2014,基于同震库仑应力变化的汶川地震余震频次研究,中国地震,30(1),74~90。
雷兴林、马胜利、苏金蓉等,2013,汶川地震后中下地壳及上地幔的粘弹性效应引起的应力变化与芦山地震的发生机制,地震地质,35(2),411~422。
马瑾,1987,构造物理学概论,北京:地震出版社。
聂晓红、李莹甄,2010,2008年3月21日新疆于田7.4级地震序列特征及震前部分地震学异常特征,内陆地震,24(1),330~339。
聂晓红、王琼,2014,2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3地震前地震活动特征分析,中国地震,30(2),208~218。
邵志刚、周龙泉、蒋长胜等,2010,2008汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,地球物理学报,53(8),1784~1795。
宋金、周龙泉,2014,2014年于田MS7.3地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响,中国地震,30(2),168~177。
谈洪波、申重阳、玄松柏,2010,地壳分层和地壳厚度对汶川地震同震效应的影响,大地测量与地球动力学,30(4),29~35。
万永革、沈正康、盛书中等,2009,2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响,地震学报,31(2),128~139。
万永革、吴忠良、周公威等,2000,几次复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”问题,地震学报,22(6),568~576。
王庆良、巩守文,1997,由1990年共和7.0级地震震后垂直形变求得的地球介质有效弛豫时间和粘滞系数,地震学报,19(5),480~486。
王绳祖、张四昌、田勤俭,2001,大陆动力学,15~20,北京:地震出版社。
吴小平、黄雍、胡家富等,2008,汶川MS8.0巨震产生完全库仑破裂应力变化及其强余震群,地震研究,32(4),357~365。
新疆地震局,1997,天山地震目录及中强地震震源机制解,内陆地震,11(增刊),612~620。
许才军、汪建军、温扬茂,2009,震后松弛过程的粘弹性模型在1997年MW7.6玛尼地震中的应用研究,武汉大学学报,34(3),253~256。
许建东、赵波、张柳毅等,2011,新疆阿什库勒火山群野外地质科学考察,地震地质,33(3),499~505。
尹光华、蒋靖祥、吴国栋,2008,2008年3月21日于田7.4级地震的构造背景,干旱区地理,31(4),543~549。
张晁军、曹建玲、石耀霖,2008a,从震后形变探讨青藏高原下地壳粘滞系数,中国科学D辑:地球科学,38(10),1250~1257。
张晁军、石耀霖、黄建平,2008b,粘弹性分层和重力作用对地震形变场数值模拟的影响,西北地震学报,30(3),201~213。
张国宏、单新建、李卫东,2008,汶川MS8.0地震库仑破裂应力变化及断层危险性初步研究,地震地质,30(4),935~944。
张先康、赵金仁、张成科等,2002,帕米尔东北侧地壳结构研究,地球物理学报,45(5),665~671。
张勇、许力生、陈运泰等,2014,2014年2月12日于田MW6.9地震破裂过程初步反演:兼论震源机制对地震破裂过程反演的影响,地震学报,36(2),159~164。
朱良玉、王双绪、蒋锋云,2014,利用震后GPS数据反演汶川地区有效黏滞系数,地震学报,36(1),32~41。
朱守彪、蔡永恩,2006,利用GPS观测的时间序列资料反演地壳地幔粘性结构,地球物理学报,49(3),771~777。
Cocco M,Hainzl S,Catalli F,et al,2010,Sensitivity study of forecasted aftershock seismicity based on Coulomb stresscalculation and rate-and state-dependent frictional response,J Geophys Res,115,B05307,doi:10.1029/2009JB006838.
Dieterich J H,1979,Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimental results and constitutive equations,J Geophys Res,84,2161~2168.
Dieterich J H,1981,Constitutive properties of faults with simulated gouge,in Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks,GeophysMonogr Ser,AGU,Washington,D C,24,103~120.
Dieterich J H,1994,A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering,J GeophysRes,99,2601~2618,doi:10.1029/2009JB006838.
Freed A M,Lin J,1998,Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thust earthquakes,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24393~24409.
Freed A M,Lin J,2001,Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer,Nature,411,180~183.
Hainzl S,Brietzke G B,Zoller G,2010a,Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering,J Geophys Res,115,B11311,doi:10.1029/2010JB007473.
Hainzl S,Zoller G,Wang R J,2010b,Impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity,J Geophys Res,115,B05315,doi:10.1029/2008JB006224.
Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E,1998,The static stress change triggering model:Constraints from two southernCalifornia aftershock sequences,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24427~24437.
Harris R A,1998,Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard,J GeophysRes,103,35~53.
Heaton H,1975,Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes,Geophys J R Astr Soc,43,307~326.
Heaton H,1982,Tidal Triggering of Earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,72(6),2181~2200.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J,1994,Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes,Bull Seism Soc Am,84,935~953.
Kostrov V,1974,Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes,and seiemic flow of rock,Physics of the Solid Earth,21,1~13.
Lin J,Stein R S,2004,Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes,and stress interaction between the southern SanAndreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults,J Geophys Res,109,B02303,doi:10.1029/2003JB002607.
Nalbant S S,Aurelia H,Geoffrey C P K,1998,Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the north AegeanSea,J Geophys Res,103,24469~24486.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W,1992,Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the Loma Prietaearthquake,Science,255,1687~1690.
Ruina A,1983,Slip instability and state variable friction laws,J Geophys Res,88,10359~10370.
Stein R S,1999,The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence,Nature,402,605~609.
Stein R S,Aykut A B,James H D,1997,Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stresstriggering,Geophys J Int,128,594~604.
Toda S,Jian L,Mustapha M,2008,12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculatedto increase failure stress andseismicity rate on three majorfault systems,Geophysical Research Letters,35,L17305.
Toda S,Stein R S,2003,Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet:A demonstration of time-dependentstress transfer,J Geophys Res,108(B12),2567.
Toda S,Stein R S,Keith R D,et al,2005,Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California:Animations built onearthquake stress transfer,J Geophys Res,110,B05S16,doi:10.1029/2004JB003415.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al,1998,Stress transferred by the 1995,MW=6.9 Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect onaftershocks and future earthquake probabilities,J Geophys Res,103(B10),24543~24565.
Wang R J,Lorenzo M F,Roth F,2006,PSGRN/PSCMP-A new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation,geoid andgravity changes based on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory,Comput Geosci,32(4),527~541.
Zhang C J,Shi Y L,Ma L,et al,2007,A rheological model of post-seismic deformation for the 2001 Kunlun,China earthquake,MW7.8,Geofis Int,46(3),145~154.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心