环太平洋地震带巨震预测
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摘要
基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了板间地震区初划原则与合理性检验原则,对环太平洋地震带划分了15个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:台湾岛-菲律宾群岛与琉球群岛-台湾岛地震区均已到达临界状态。巨震可随时发生;阿留申群岛-温哥华-旧金山-瓜达拉哈拉、墨西哥城、波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚、苏瓦-惠灵顿、新几内亚岛一所罗门群岛、爪哇岛-马鲁古群岛、北马里亚那群岛和北海道-堪察加地震区未来有巨震发生;圣萨尔瓦多一圣何塞地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;梅莱凯奥克地震区未来有大震发生;苏门答腊地震区2004年M_W 9.1级地震与查戈斯群岛地震区2012年M_W 8.6级地震均为主震事件;巴拿马城南部地震区是一个不低于M_W 7.2级地震危险区.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.对上述震倒的分析表明:深源地震可能与浅源地震孕育机制类似,均为锁固段脆性破裂.
In this study,we proposed the principles for preliminary dividing interplate seismogenic zones and testing its reasonableness based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and divided the Circum-Pacific seismic belt into 15 seismic zones base on these principles.In addition,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in these zones from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that the seismic zones of Taiwan island-Philippines as well as Ryukyu islands-Taiwan island have reached their critical states and great earthquakes can occur at any time;great earthquakes will Occur in the seismic zones of Aleutian islands-Vancouver-San FranciscoGuadalajara.Mexico City,Bogota-Arica-Valdivia,SuvaWellington,New Guinea-Solomon islands,Java-Maluku islands,Northern Mariana islands and Hokkaido-Kamchatka;a large or great earthquake will occur in the San Salvador-San Jose seismic zone;a major earthquake will occur in Melekeok seismic zone;the M_W 9.1 earthquake occurred in Sumatra seismic zone in 2004 and the M_W 8.6 earthquake occurred in Chagos Archipelago seismic zone in 2012 were main events;Southern Panama City is a dangerous seismic zone with no less than Mw 7.2 earthquake.Our results provided a reference for the relevant departments of relevant countries in Circum-pacific seismic belt to take effective measures for earthquake disasters reduction.Analyses of the above cases indicated that like shallow focus earthquakes,deep focus earthquakes may have similar seismogenic mechanism and are resulted from brittle fractures of multiple locked patches.
In this study,we proposed the principles for preliminary dividing interplate seismogenic zones and testing its reasonableness based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and divided the Circum-Pacific seismic belt into 15 seismic zones base on these principles.In addition,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in these zones from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that the seismic zones of Taiwan island-Philippines as well as Ryukyu islands-Taiwan island have reached their critical states and great earthquakes can occur at any time;great earthquakes will Occur in the seismic zones of Aleutian islands-Vancouver-San FranciscoGuadalajara.Mexico City,Bogota-Arica-Valdivia,SuvaWellington,New Guinea-Solomon islands,Java-Maluku islands,Northern Mariana islands and Hokkaido-Kamchatka;a large or great earthquake will occur in the San Salvador-San Jose seismic zone;a major earthquake will occur in Melekeok seismic zone;the M_W 9.1 earthquake occurred in Sumatra seismic zone in 2004 and the M_W 8.6 earthquake occurred in Chagos Archipelago seismic zone in 2012 were main events;Southern Panama City is a dangerous seismic zone with no less than Mw 7.2 earthquake.Our results provided a reference for the relevant departments of relevant countries in Circum-pacific seismic belt to take effective measures for earthquake disasters reduction.Analyses of the above cases indicated that like shallow focus earthquakes,deep focus earthquakes may have similar seismogenic mechanism and are resulted from brittle fractures of multiple locked patches.
引文
Chen S J,Sun L M,Ma L.2007.Multifractal characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes in intraplate and interplate regions.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),29(1),38-47.
Dong Z P,Cheng J W,Guo G H.2012.Ms 9.0 earthquake in Japan and its influence on strong earthquake activity in China.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese).26(1):1-9.
Griggs D.Baker D.1969.The origin of deep-focus earthquakes.Properties of matter under unusual conditions.Interscience New York,23-42.
Gusev A A.Shumilina L&2004.Recurrence of Kamchatka Strong Earthquakes on a Scale of Moment Magnitudes.IzvestiyaRussian Academy of Sciences Physics of the Solid Earth,40(3):206-215.
Gutenberg B,Richter C.1954.Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena.Princeton,New Jersey:Princeton University Press.
Lv J E.2005.Chile earthquake:the largest earthquake ever.World Science(in Chinese),2010(6):32-34.
Ma Z J,Jiang M.1987.Strong earthquake periods and episondes in China.Earthquake research in China(in Chinese),3(1):47-51.
Ma Z J,Ye H.2005.The Dec.26,2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake:Tectonic setting and the tsunami disaster.Earth Science FrontiersGn Chinese),12(1):281-287.
Mei S R.1960.Seismic activity in China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),9(1):1-19.
Mignan A,King G,Bowman D,et al.2006.Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26,2004(M_W=9.0-9.3)and March 28,2005(M_W=8.7)earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,244(3):639-654.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts.Tectonophysics,22(3):265-282.
Natawidjaja D H,SiehK,Chlieh M,etal.2006.Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833inferred from coral microatolls.Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,111(B6):B06403,doi:10.1029/2005JB004025.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014a.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwest China and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,etal.2010.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014d.Analysis on the future earthquake situation for the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone abroad.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(6):2530-2533,doi:10.6038/pg20140608
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the seismogenic processes of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zones abroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches(I).Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Raleigh C,Paterson M.1965.Experimental deformation of serpentinite and its tectonic implications.Journal of Geophysical Research,70(16):3965-3985.
Randall M J.1966.Seismic radiation from a sudden phase transition.Journal of Geophysical Research,71(22):5297-5302,doi:10.1029/JZ071i022p05297.
Sai L Y,Wei B.1996.Characteristics of the earthquakes in the circum-pacific seismic belt recorded by Kashi seismostation.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),10(3):281-285.
Scholz C H,Aviles C,Wesnousky S G.1986.Scaling differences between large interplate and intraplate earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,76(1):65-70.
Sibson R H.1977.Fault rocks and fault mechanisms.Journal of the Geological Society,133(3):191-213.
Sibson R H.1982.Fault zone models,heat flow,and the depth distribution of earthquakes in the continental crust of the United States.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(1):151-163.
Song Z P,Zhang G M,Liu J.2011.Global Earthquake CatalogC in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press.
Tao C H,Dai L M,Sun Y.2008.Summary on the tectonic setting of the area around Indonesia where earthquake tsunami happened.Journal of Marine Sciences(in Chinese),26(2):59-66.
Wang X F,Yu S,Li,Zhong S.2014.Comparison of active tectonics and earthquakes triggering mechanism along plate boundary and within intraplate.Marine Geology and Quaternary geology(in Chinese),34(2):159-175.
Ye L L,Lay T,Kanamori H,et al.2013.Energy Release of the2013 M_W 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake and Deep Slab Stress Heterogeneity.Science,341(6152):1380-1384,doi:10.1126/science.1242032.
Zhang M Q,Huang Y Y.1997.Plate tectonics and plate boundary.Fossils(in Chinese),2(0):2-5.
陈时军,孙龙梅,马丽.2007.板内与板问地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征研究.地震学报,29(1):38-47.
董治平,程建武,郭桂红.2012.日本9级大地震及其对中国强震活动的影响.内陆地震,26(1):1-9.
吕吉尔.2010.智利大地震:有史以来的最大地震.世界科学,2010(6):32-34.
马宗晋,蒋铭.1987.中国的强震期和强震幕.中国地震,3(1):47-51.
马宗晋,叶洪.2005.2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害.地学前缘,12(1):281-287.
梅世蓉.1960.中国的地震活动性.地球物理学报,9(1):1-19.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014a.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014b.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014c.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014d.朱诺-温哥华-旧金山-墨西哥城地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,29(6):2530-2533 doi:10.6038/pg20140608
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(I).地球物理学进展,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
赛来义,魏斌.1996.喀什台环太平洋地震带地震记录特征.内陆地震,10(3):281-285.
宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.2011.全球地震目录.北京:地震出版社.陶春辉,戴黎明,孙耀,等.2008.印尼附近海域地震海啸发生的构造背景综述.海洋学研究,26(2):59-66.
王霄飞,余珊,李三忠,等.2014.板缘与板内活动构造与地震触发机制对比.海洋地质与第四纪地质,34(2):159-175.
张明庆,黄玉珏.1997.板块构造与板块边界.化石,2(0):2-5.
Dong Z P,Cheng J W,Guo G H.2012.Ms 9.0 earthquake in Japan and its influence on strong earthquake activity in China.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese).26(1):1-9.
Griggs D.Baker D.1969.The origin of deep-focus earthquakes.Properties of matter under unusual conditions.Interscience New York,23-42.
Gusev A A.Shumilina L&2004.Recurrence of Kamchatka Strong Earthquakes on a Scale of Moment Magnitudes.IzvestiyaRussian Academy of Sciences Physics of the Solid Earth,40(3):206-215.
Gutenberg B,Richter C.1954.Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena.Princeton,New Jersey:Princeton University Press.
Lv J E.2005.Chile earthquake:the largest earthquake ever.World Science(in Chinese),2010(6):32-34.
Ma Z J,Jiang M.1987.Strong earthquake periods and episondes in China.Earthquake research in China(in Chinese),3(1):47-51.
Ma Z J,Ye H.2005.The Dec.26,2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake:Tectonic setting and the tsunami disaster.Earth Science FrontiersGn Chinese),12(1):281-287.
Mei S R.1960.Seismic activity in China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),9(1):1-19.
Mignan A,King G,Bowman D,et al.2006.Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26,2004(M_W=9.0-9.3)and March 28,2005(M_W=8.7)earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,244(3):639-654.
Mogi K.1974.Active periods in the world's chief seismic belts.Tectonophysics,22(3):265-282.
Natawidjaja D H,SiehK,Chlieh M,etal.2006.Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833inferred from coral microatolls.Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth,111(B6):B06403,doi:10.1029/2005JB004025.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014a.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwest China and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,etal.2010.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014d.Analysis on the future earthquake situation for the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone abroad.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(6):2530-2533,doi:10.6038/pg20140608
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the seismogenic processes of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zones abroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches(I).Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Raleigh C,Paterson M.1965.Experimental deformation of serpentinite and its tectonic implications.Journal of Geophysical Research,70(16):3965-3985.
Randall M J.1966.Seismic radiation from a sudden phase transition.Journal of Geophysical Research,71(22):5297-5302,doi:10.1029/JZ071i022p05297.
Sai L Y,Wei B.1996.Characteristics of the earthquakes in the circum-pacific seismic belt recorded by Kashi seismostation.Inland Earthquake(in Chinese),10(3):281-285.
Scholz C H,Aviles C,Wesnousky S G.1986.Scaling differences between large interplate and intraplate earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,76(1):65-70.
Sibson R H.1977.Fault rocks and fault mechanisms.Journal of the Geological Society,133(3):191-213.
Sibson R H.1982.Fault zone models,heat flow,and the depth distribution of earthquakes in the continental crust of the United States.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(1):151-163.
Song Z P,Zhang G M,Liu J.2011.Global Earthquake CatalogC in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press.
Tao C H,Dai L M,Sun Y.2008.Summary on the tectonic setting of the area around Indonesia where earthquake tsunami happened.Journal of Marine Sciences(in Chinese),26(2):59-66.
Wang X F,Yu S,Li,Zhong S.2014.Comparison of active tectonics and earthquakes triggering mechanism along plate boundary and within intraplate.Marine Geology and Quaternary geology(in Chinese),34(2):159-175.
Ye L L,Lay T,Kanamori H,et al.2013.Energy Release of the2013 M_W 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake and Deep Slab Stress Heterogeneity.Science,341(6152):1380-1384,doi:10.1126/science.1242032.
Zhang M Q,Huang Y Y.1997.Plate tectonics and plate boundary.Fossils(in Chinese),2(0):2-5.
陈时军,孙龙梅,马丽.2007.板内与板问地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征研究.地震学报,29(1):38-47.
董治平,程建武,郭桂红.2012.日本9级大地震及其对中国强震活动的影响.内陆地震,26(1):1-9.
吕吉尔.2010.智利大地震:有史以来的最大地震.世界科学,2010(6):32-34.
马宗晋,蒋铭.1987.中国的强震期和强震幕.中国地震,3(1):47-51.
马宗晋,叶洪.2005.2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害.地学前缘,12(1):281-287.
梅世蓉.1960.中国的地震活动性.地球物理学报,9(1):1-19.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014a.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014b.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014c.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014d.朱诺-温哥华-旧金山-墨西哥城地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,29(6):2530-2533 doi:10.6038/pg20140608
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(I).地球物理学进展,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
赛来义,魏斌.1996.喀什台环太平洋地震带地震记录特征.内陆地震,10(3):281-285.
宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.2011.全球地震目录.北京:地震出版社.陶春辉,戴黎明,孙耀,等.2008.印尼附近海域地震海啸发生的构造背景综述.海洋学研究,26(2):59-66.
王霄飞,余珊,李三忠,等.2014.板缘与板内活动构造与地震触发机制对比.海洋地质与第四纪地质,34(2):159-175.
张明庆,黄玉珏.1997.板块构造与板块边界.化石,2(0):2-5.
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