2008年和2014年于田地震对周边断层发震概率的影响
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摘要
大震后区域静态库仑应力变化直接影响地震活动性速率的变化、主震断层外余震和即将失稳断层的发震概率的变化.利用滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律,结合2008年3月21日于田地震前后的地震活动性水平,定量计算了2008年于田地震后该地区周边断层发震概率的变化,着重解释了2014年于田地震发震的可能根源.此外,本文还对库仑应力明显变化的周边三条断层进行了发震概率的定量计算.贡嘎错断裂中段、贡嘎错断裂西南段和康西瓦断裂中段分别经历了发震概率先降后升、先升后升和先降后降两个阶段,充分显示了库仑应力的细微变化造成的周边断层的危险性的变化.这三条断裂发生7.0级以上地震的发震概率超越95%均需要500年左右;贡嘎错断裂西南段发生中强地震的可能性较大,而康西瓦断裂中段活跃度较低.
Static stress changes are used to explain variations of seismicity rates,off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes.Based on the rate-and state-dependent frictional law,combined with the seismicity analysis before and after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,we quantitatively calculate the probability of earthquake occurrences near the main fault,and explain the probable causes for the 2014 Yutian earthquake.The rate-and state-dependent frictional law characterizes variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions.This formulation gives a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena.Earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes.The model provides the characteristic aftershock decay law and interpretation to aftershock parameters.We use this seismicity formulation to predict large changes of earthquakeprobabilities based on the stress changes.Firstly,we calculate the aftershock duration and seismicity rate after the main shock.Secondly,to illustrate the corresponding sensitivity in the probability of earthquakes to stress history,we use a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence for the probability of one or more earthquakes in a time interval.We have computed the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault,and the central segments of Kengxiwar fault,where the Coulomb stress also changed after the 2008 Yutian earthquake.The earthquake probabilities of the central segments of Gonggacuo and Kengxiwar faults decreased after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,while that of southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault increased.After the 2014 Yutian earthquake,the earthquake probabilities of the southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault increased,but the central segments of Kengxiwar fault decreased.This result indicates that slight variations in Coulomb stress changes can cause the seismic risk to change on the faults.It needs about 500 years that the probabilities of occurrence an M7.0earthquake exceed to 95% of the three faults mentioned above.The destructive earthquakes are likely to occur in the southwest segments of the Gonggacuo fault,while the seismic risk of the central segments of the Kengxiwar fault is low.
Static stress changes are used to explain variations of seismicity rates,off-fault aftershocks and probability changes for the occurrence of impending earthquakes.Based on the rate-and state-dependent frictional law,combined with the seismicity analysis before and after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,we quantitatively calculate the probability of earthquake occurrences near the main fault,and explain the probable causes for the 2014 Yutian earthquake.The rate-and state-dependent frictional law characterizes variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions.This formulation gives a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena.Earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes.The model provides the characteristic aftershock decay law and interpretation to aftershock parameters.We use this seismicity formulation to predict large changes of earthquakeprobabilities based on the stress changes.Firstly,we calculate the aftershock duration and seismicity rate after the main shock.Secondly,to illustrate the corresponding sensitivity in the probability of earthquakes to stress history,we use a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence for the probability of one or more earthquakes in a time interval.We have computed the earthquake probabilities of southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault,and the central segments of Kengxiwar fault,where the Coulomb stress also changed after the 2008 Yutian earthquake.The earthquake probabilities of the central segments of Gonggacuo and Kengxiwar faults decreased after the 2008 Yutian earthquake,while that of southwest segments of Gonggacuo fault increased.After the 2014 Yutian earthquake,the earthquake probabilities of the southwest and central segments of the Gonggacuo fault increased,but the central segments of Kengxiwar fault decreased.This result indicates that slight variations in Coulomb stress changes can cause the seismic risk to change on the faults.It needs about 500 years that the probabilities of occurrence an M7.0earthquake exceed to 95% of the three faults mentioned above.The destructive earthquakes are likely to occur in the southwest segments of the Gonggacuo fault,while the seismic risk of the central segments of the Kengxiwar fault is low.
引文
Chen Y T,Yang Z X,Zhang Y,et al.2013.From 2008Wenchuanearthquake to 2013Lushan earthquake.Scientia Sinica Terrae(in Chinese),43(6):1064-1072.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in theEarth.J.Geophys.Res.,86(B7):6039-6051.
Dieterich J H.1972.Time-dependent friction as a possiblemechanism for aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,77(20):3771-3781.
Dieterich J H.1979.Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimentalresults and constitutive equations.J.Geophys.Res.,84(B5):2161-2168.
Dieterich J H.1981.Constitutive properties of faults with simulatedgouge.//Carter N L,Friedman M,Logan J M eds.Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks:The Handin Volume.Geophysical Monograph Series,Volume 24.Washington D.C.:AGU,103-120.
Dieterich J H.1994.A constitutive law for rate of earthquakeproduction and its application to earthquake clustering.J.Geophys.Res.,99(B2):2601-2618.
Dieterich J H,Kilgore B D.1996.Implications of fault constitutiveproperties for earthquake prediction.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.U.S.A.,93(9):3787-3794.
Du F,Long F,Ruan X,et al.2013.The M7.0Lushan earthquakeand the relationship with the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake inSichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),56(5):1772-1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
Gao G Y,Wen H P,Nie X H.2005.Analysis of focal-mechanismsolution of moderately strong earthquakes in Xinjiang from1991to 2002.Earthquake(in Chinese),25(1):81-87.
Gomberg J,Blampied M L,Beeler N M.1997.Transient triggeringof near and distant earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,87(2):294-309.
Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blampied M L,et al.1998.Earthquaketriggering by transient and static deformations.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24411-24426.
Gross S,Kisslinger C.1997.Estimating tectonic stress rate andstate with Landers aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,102(B4):7603-7612.
Gross S,Bürgmann R.1998.Rate and state of background stressestimated from the aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta,California,earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B3):4915-4927.
Harris R A,Day S M.1993.Dynamics of fault interaction:Parallelstrike-slip fault.J.Geophys.Res.,98(B3):4461-4472.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24347-24358.
Harris R A,Simpson R W.1998.Suppression of large earthquakesby stress shadows:a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24439-24451.
Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.2004.The physics of earthquakes.Rep.Prog.Phys.,67(8):1429-1496.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and thetriggering of earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,84(3):935-953.
Lei X L,Ma S L,Su J R,et al.2013.Inelastic triggering of the2013 Mw6.6Lushan earthquake by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuanearthquake.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),35(2):411-422.
Liu B Y,Shi B P,Lei J S.2013.Effect of Wenchuan earthquake onprobabilities of earthquake occurrence of Lushan and surroundingfaults.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),35(5):642-651.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuanbasin.Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1992.Response of regionalseismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake.Science,255(5052):1687-1690.
Rice J R,Gu J C.1983.Earthquake aftereffects and triggeredseismic phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,121(2):187-219.
Ruina A L.1983.Slip instability and state variable friction laws.J.Geophys.Res.,88(B12):10359-10370.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocationtheory.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,7(4):409-422.
Shan B,Xiong X,Zheng Y,et al.2013.Stress changes on majorfaults caused by 2013Lushan earthquake,and its relationshipwith 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China:EarthSciences(in Chinese),43(6):1002-1009.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced staticstress changes on central California faults.U.S.Geol.Surv.Prof.Pap.,1550-F:F55-F89.
Spudich P,Steck L K,Hellweg M,et al.1995.Transient stressesat Parkfield,California,produced by the M7.4 Landersearthquake of June 28,1992:Observations from UPSARdense seismograph array.J.Geophys.Res.,100(B1):675-690.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on thesouthern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992magnitude=7.4 Landers earthquake.Science,258(5086):1328-1332.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors.Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.1998.Stress transferredby the 1995 MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocksand future earthquakes probabilities.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24543-24565.
Wan Y G,Shen Z K,Sheng S Z,et al.2010.The mechanicaleffects of the 2008 MS7.3Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on theneighboring faults and its tectonic origin of normal faultingmechanism.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(2):280-289,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.02.006.
Wang F,Xu X W,Zheng R Z,et al.2004.Late quaternary sliprate on the Altun fault west to the Qarqan river.Seismologyand Geology(in Chinese),26(2):200-208.
Wang F,Chen W T,Wang M,et al.2011.Coseismic andpostseismic deformation of MS7.3 Yutian earthquake derivedfrom GPS data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),54(9):2250-2255,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.09.007.
Wang Q,Nie X H,Wen H P.2009.Preliminary research on thecharacteristics of regional seismic activity and stress statebefore the 2008 MS7.3 earthquake in Yutian,Xinjiang ofChina.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),31(3):235-244.
Wang S Z,Gao G Y.1992.The regional characteristics of tectonicstress field in Xinjiang and its neighboring areas.ActaSeismologica Sinica(in Chinese),14(S):612-620.
Xu X W,Tan X B,Wu G D,et al.2011.Surface rupture featuresof the 2008Yutian MS7.3earthquake and its tectonic nature.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),33(2):462-471.
Xu X W,Yu G H.2014.Earthquakes structural map of M7.3inYutian County,Hotan Prefecture,Xinjiang Uygur AutonomousRegion(latitude 36.1°,longitude 82.5°)(in Chinese).http://www.eq-igl.ac.cn[2014-02-16].
Zhu L R.2002.Xinjiang Annals(Volumes 11,Earthquake)(inChinese).Urumqi:Xinjiang People′s Publishing House.
陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇等.2013.从汶川地震到芦山地震.中国科学:地球科学,43(6):1064-1072.
杜方,龙锋,阮祥等.2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其与汶川8.0级地震的关系.地球物理学报,56(5):1772-1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
高国英,温和平,聂晓红.2005.1991—2002年新疆中强震震源机制解分析.地震,25(1):81-87.
雷兴林,马胜利,苏金蓉等.2013.汶川地震后中下地壳及上地幔的粘弹性效应引起的应力变化与芦山地震的发生机制.地震地质,35(2):411-422.
刘博研,史保平,雷建设.2013.汶川地震对芦山地震及周边断层发震概率的影响.地震学报,35(5):642-651.
单斌,熊熊,郑勇等.2013.2013年芦山地震导致的周边断层应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,43(6):1002-1009.
万永革,沈正康,盛书中等.2010.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释.地球物理学报,53(2):280-289,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.02.006.
王峰,徐锡伟,郑荣章等.2004.阿尔金断裂带西段车尔臣河以西晚第四纪以来的滑动速率研究.地震地质,26(2):200-208.
王凡,陈为涛,王敏等.2011.利用GPS观测资料分析2008年于田MS7.3地震的同震位移及震后形变.地球物理学报,54(9):2250-2255,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.09.007.
王琼,聂晓红,温和平.2009.2008年新疆于田MS7.3地震前区域地震活动和应力状态特征初步研究.地震学报,31(3):235-244.
王盛泽,高国英.1992.新疆及其邻近地区现代构造应力场的区域特征.地震学报,14(增刊):612-620.
徐锡伟,谭锡斌,吴国栋等.2011.2008年于田MS7.3地震地表破裂带特征及其构造属性讨论.地震地质,33(2):462-471.
徐锡伟,于贵华.2014.新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区于田县(北纬36.1°,东经82.5°)7.3级地震发震构造图.http://www.eqigl.ac.cn[2014-02-16].
朱令人.2002.新疆通志(十一卷,地震志).乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in theEarth.J.Geophys.Res.,86(B7):6039-6051.
Dieterich J H.1972.Time-dependent friction as a possiblemechanism for aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,77(20):3771-3781.
Dieterich J H.1979.Modeling of rock friction:1.Experimentalresults and constitutive equations.J.Geophys.Res.,84(B5):2161-2168.
Dieterich J H.1981.Constitutive properties of faults with simulatedgouge.//Carter N L,Friedman M,Logan J M eds.Mechanical Behavior of Crustal Rocks:The Handin Volume.Geophysical Monograph Series,Volume 24.Washington D.C.:AGU,103-120.
Dieterich J H.1994.A constitutive law for rate of earthquakeproduction and its application to earthquake clustering.J.Geophys.Res.,99(B2):2601-2618.
Dieterich J H,Kilgore B D.1996.Implications of fault constitutiveproperties for earthquake prediction.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.U.S.A.,93(9):3787-3794.
Du F,Long F,Ruan X,et al.2013.The M7.0Lushan earthquakeand the relationship with the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake inSichuan,China.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),56(5):1772-1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
Gao G Y,Wen H P,Nie X H.2005.Analysis of focal-mechanismsolution of moderately strong earthquakes in Xinjiang from1991to 2002.Earthquake(in Chinese),25(1):81-87.
Gomberg J,Blampied M L,Beeler N M.1997.Transient triggeringof near and distant earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,87(2):294-309.
Gomberg J,Beeler N M,Blampied M L,et al.1998.Earthquaketriggering by transient and static deformations.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24411-24426.
Gross S,Kisslinger C.1997.Estimating tectonic stress rate andstate with Landers aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,102(B4):7603-7612.
Gross S,Bürgmann R.1998.Rate and state of background stressestimated from the aftershocks of the 1989 Loma Prieta,California,earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B3):4915-4927.
Harris R A,Day S M.1993.Dynamics of fault interaction:Parallelstrike-slip fault.J.Geophys.Res.,98(B3):4461-4472.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24347-24358.
Harris R A,Simpson R W.1998.Suppression of large earthquakesby stress shadows:a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24439-24451.
Kanamori H,Brodsky E E.2004.The physics of earthquakes.Rep.Prog.Phys.,67(8):1429-1496.
King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and thetriggering of earthquakes.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,84(3):935-953.
Lei X L,Ma S L,Su J R,et al.2013.Inelastic triggering of the2013 Mw6.6Lushan earthquake by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuanearthquake.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),35(2):411-422.
Liu B Y,Shi B P,Lei J S.2013.Effect of Wenchuan earthquake onprobabilities of earthquake occurrence of Lushan and surroundingfaults.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),35(5):642-651.
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes from the 2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuanbasin.Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Reasenberg P A,Simpson R W.1992.Response of regionalseismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake.Science,255(5052):1687-1690.
Rice J R,Gu J C.1983.Earthquake aftereffects and triggeredseismic phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,121(2):187-219.
Ruina A L.1983.Slip instability and state variable friction laws.J.Geophys.Res.,88(B12):10359-10370.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocationtheory.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,7(4):409-422.
Shan B,Xiong X,Zheng Y,et al.2013.Stress changes on majorfaults caused by 2013Lushan earthquake,and its relationshipwith 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China:EarthSciences(in Chinese),43(6):1002-1009.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced staticstress changes on central California faults.U.S.Geol.Surv.Prof.Pap.,1550-F:F55-F89.
Spudich P,Steck L K,Hellweg M,et al.1995.Transient stressesat Parkfield,California,produced by the M7.4 Landersearthquake of June 28,1992:Observations from UPSARdense seismograph array.J.Geophys.Res.,100(B1):675-690.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on thesouthern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992magnitude=7.4 Landers earthquake.Science,258(5086):1328-1332.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the 1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake by its predecessors.Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Toda S,Stein R S,Reasenberg P A,et al.1998.Stress transferredby the 1995 MW=6.9Kobe,Japan,shock:Effect on aftershocksand future earthquakes probabilities.J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10):24543-24565.
Wan Y G,Shen Z K,Sheng S Z,et al.2010.The mechanicaleffects of the 2008 MS7.3Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on theneighboring faults and its tectonic origin of normal faultingmechanism.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(2):280-289,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.02.006.
Wang F,Xu X W,Zheng R Z,et al.2004.Late quaternary sliprate on the Altun fault west to the Qarqan river.Seismologyand Geology(in Chinese),26(2):200-208.
Wang F,Chen W T,Wang M,et al.2011.Coseismic andpostseismic deformation of MS7.3 Yutian earthquake derivedfrom GPS data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),54(9):2250-2255,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.09.007.
Wang Q,Nie X H,Wen H P.2009.Preliminary research on thecharacteristics of regional seismic activity and stress statebefore the 2008 MS7.3 earthquake in Yutian,Xinjiang ofChina.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),31(3):235-244.
Wang S Z,Gao G Y.1992.The regional characteristics of tectonicstress field in Xinjiang and its neighboring areas.ActaSeismologica Sinica(in Chinese),14(S):612-620.
Xu X W,Tan X B,Wu G D,et al.2011.Surface rupture featuresof the 2008Yutian MS7.3earthquake and its tectonic nature.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),33(2):462-471.
Xu X W,Yu G H.2014.Earthquakes structural map of M7.3inYutian County,Hotan Prefecture,Xinjiang Uygur AutonomousRegion(latitude 36.1°,longitude 82.5°)(in Chinese).http://www.eq-igl.ac.cn[2014-02-16].
Zhu L R.2002.Xinjiang Annals(Volumes 11,Earthquake)(inChinese).Urumqi:Xinjiang People′s Publishing House.
陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇等.2013.从汶川地震到芦山地震.中国科学:地球科学,43(6):1064-1072.
杜方,龙锋,阮祥等.2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其与汶川8.0级地震的关系.地球物理学报,56(5):1772-1783,doi:10.6038/cjg20130535.
高国英,温和平,聂晓红.2005.1991—2002年新疆中强震震源机制解分析.地震,25(1):81-87.
雷兴林,马胜利,苏金蓉等.2013.汶川地震后中下地壳及上地幔的粘弹性效应引起的应力变化与芦山地震的发生机制.地震地质,35(2):411-422.
刘博研,史保平,雷建设.2013.汶川地震对芦山地震及周边断层发震概率的影响.地震学报,35(5):642-651.
单斌,熊熊,郑勇等.2013.2013年芦山地震导致的周边断层应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,43(6):1002-1009.
万永革,沈正康,盛书中等.2010.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释.地球物理学报,53(2):280-289,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.02.006.
王峰,徐锡伟,郑荣章等.2004.阿尔金断裂带西段车尔臣河以西晚第四纪以来的滑动速率研究.地震地质,26(2):200-208.
王凡,陈为涛,王敏等.2011.利用GPS观测资料分析2008年于田MS7.3地震的同震位移及震后形变.地球物理学报,54(9):2250-2255,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2011.09.007.
王琼,聂晓红,温和平.2009.2008年新疆于田MS7.3地震前区域地震活动和应力状态特征初步研究.地震学报,31(3):235-244.
王盛泽,高国英.1992.新疆及其邻近地区现代构造应力场的区域特征.地震学报,14(增刊):612-620.
徐锡伟,谭锡斌,吴国栋等.2011.2008年于田MS7.3地震地表破裂带特征及其构造属性讨论.地震地质,33(2):462-471.
徐锡伟,于贵华.2014.新疆维吾尔自治区和田地区于田县(北纬36.1°,东经82.5°)7.3级地震发震构造图.http://www.eqigl.ac.cn[2014-02-16].
朱令人.2002.新疆通志(十一卷,地震志).乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.
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