浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析
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摘要
采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。
A three-layer tsunami model was established utilizing COMCOT numerical model to simulate the generation and propagation of 2011Tohoku-Oki earthquake tsunami event.The numerical results show that the errors between the computed arrive time and wave height and the observations at the DARTs near earthquake source and the tide gauge stations along Zhejiang coast are less than 15%.Studies show that Japan Nankai Trough,Okinawa Trough and South Ryukyu Trench would be the major potential regional tsunami sources which may threaten Zhejiang coast.Three hypothetical events of the above sources with Mw9.1,Mw8.0and Mw8.7earthquakes were studied by the model to assess their impacts on Zhejiang coast.The numerical results show that the tsunami waves generated by three hypothetical events would take 3to 8hours to reach the Zhejiang coast area,and the amplitude could vary between 1and 3m,with the maximum wave up to 4m.The simulation indicates that the study area would face the tsunami hazards with levelⅢ or levelⅣ,which can cause inundation or serious inundation risk.
A three-layer tsunami model was established utilizing COMCOT numerical model to simulate the generation and propagation of 2011Tohoku-Oki earthquake tsunami event.The numerical results show that the errors between the computed arrive time and wave height and the observations at the DARTs near earthquake source and the tide gauge stations along Zhejiang coast are less than 15%.Studies show that Japan Nankai Trough,Okinawa Trough and South Ryukyu Trench would be the major potential regional tsunami sources which may threaten Zhejiang coast.Three hypothetical events of the above sources with Mw9.1,Mw8.0and Mw8.7earthquakes were studied by the model to assess their impacts on Zhejiang coast.The numerical results show that the tsunami waves generated by three hypothetical events would take 3to 8hours to reach the Zhejiang coast area,and the amplitude could vary between 1and 3m,with the maximum wave up to 4m.The simulation indicates that the study area would face the tsunami hazards with levelⅢ or levelⅣ,which can cause inundation or serious inundation risk.
引文
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[14]Great earthquake tsunami sources:Empiricism&Beyond of Work[R].USGS Tsunami Sources Workshop,Menlo Park,California,USA.2006.
[15]Wang X M.User manual for COMCOT version 1.7[R].http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group.
[16]Okada M.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society America,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
[17]Tang L,Titov V V,Bernard E,et al.Direct energy estimation of the 2011Japan tsunami using deep-ocean pressure measurements[J].Geophysical Research,2012,117,C08008.
[18]Wei Y,Chamberlin C,Titov V V,et al.Modeling of the 2011Japan tsunami Lessons for near-field forecast[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2013,170(6/8):1309-1331.
[19]王培涛,于福江,赵联大,等.2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(9):3088-3096.Wang Peitao,Yu Fujiang,Zhao Lianda,et al.Numerical analysis of tsunami propagating generated by the Japan Mw9.0earthquake on Mar.11in2011and its impact on China coasts[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(9):3088-3096.
[2]王锋,刘昌森,章振铨.中国古籍中的地震海啸记录[J].中国地震,2005,21(3):437-443.Wang Feng,Liu Changsen,Zhang Zhenquan.Earthquake tsunami record in Chinese Ancient Books[J].Earthquake Research in China,2005,21(3):437-443.
[3]王培涛,于福江,赵联大,等.温州瓯江口浅滩地区越洋海啸影响评估计算[J].海洋预报,2013,30(4):18-26.Wang Peitao,Yu Fujiang,Zhao Lianda,et al.Assessment of teletsunami for the shoal areas of Wenzhou Oujiang estuary[J].Marine Forecasts,2013,30(4):18-26.
[4]徐纪人,赵志新,河野芳辉,等.日本南海海槽地震区区域应力场及其板块构造动力学特征[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(4):488-494.Xu Jiren,Zhao Zhixin,Kono Yoshiteru,et al.Regional characteristics of stress field and its dynamics in and around the Nankai Trough[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2003,46(4):488-494.
[5]李春峰,苏新,姜涛,等.日本南海海槽俯冲增生楔前缘的构造变形特征[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(2):203-211.Li Chunfeng,Su Xin,Jiang Tao,et al.Deformation at the front of the accretionary prism of the Nankai Trough,Japan:evidence fro core samples[J].Advances in Earth Science,2010,25(2):203-211.
[6]Gica E,Spillane M,Titov V V,et al.Development of the forecast propagation database for NOAAs Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis(SIFT)[R].NOAA Technical Memorandum,2008:139.
[7]高祥林.琉球海沟的构造和运动特征[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(2):293-301.Gao Xianglin.Tectonics and motion of the Ryukyu Trench[J].Progress in Geophysics,2003,18(2):293-301.
[8]Hsu Y,Ando M,Yu S,et al.The potential for a great earthquake along the southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39,L14302.
[9]Theunissen T,Font Y,Lallemand S,et al.The largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Taiwan:Revised location and magnitude,and tectonic significance of the 1920event[J].Geophysical Journal International,2010,183(3):1119-1133.
[10]刘展,赵文举,吴时国,等.冲绳海槽南部基底构造特征[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):814-824.Liu Zhan,Zhao Wenju,Wu Shiguo,et al.The basement tectonics in south of the Okinawa Trough[J].Progress in Geophysics,2006,21(3):814-824.
[11]温燕林,朱元清,宋治平,等.东海海域潜在地震海啸的数值模拟初步研究[J].地震学报,2008,30(5):456-463.Wen Yanlin,Zhu Yuanqing,Song Zhiping,et al.Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2008,30(5):456-463.
[12]刘双庆,朱元清,梁明剑,等.冲绳海槽地区地震潜在海啸对中国东南沿海的影响研究[J].地震学报,2012,34(3):283-295.Liu Shuangqing,Zhu Yuanqing,Liang Mingjian,et al.Impact of potential tsunami induced by Okinawa Trough earthquake on southeastern seaboard of China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2012,34(3):283-295.
[13]魏柏林,康英,陈玉桃,等.南海地震与海啸[J].华南地震,2006,26(1):47-60.Wei Bolin,Kang Ying,Chen Yutao,et al.Earthquake and tsunami of the South China Sea[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2006,26(1):47-60.
[14]Great earthquake tsunami sources:Empiricism&Beyond of Work[R].USGS Tsunami Sources Workshop,Menlo Park,California,USA.2006.
[15]Wang X M.User manual for COMCOT version 1.7[R].http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group.
[16]Okada M.Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bulletin of Seismological Society America,1985,75(4):1135-1154.
[17]Tang L,Titov V V,Bernard E,et al.Direct energy estimation of the 2011Japan tsunami using deep-ocean pressure measurements[J].Geophysical Research,2012,117,C08008.
[18]Wei Y,Chamberlin C,Titov V V,et al.Modeling of the 2011Japan tsunami Lessons for near-field forecast[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2013,170(6/8):1309-1331.
[19]王培涛,于福江,赵联大,等.2011年3月11日日本地震海啸越洋传播及对中国影响的数值分析[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(9):3088-3096.Wang Peitao,Yu Fujiang,Zhao Lianda,et al.Numerical analysis of tsunami propagating generated by the Japan Mw9.0earthquake on Mar.11in2011and its impact on China coasts[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(9):3088-3096.
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