鲁甸M_S6.5、芦山M_S7.0、汶川M_S8.0地震前区域重力场时变
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摘要
利用川滇地区不同时-空尺度的重力复测资料,系统分析了区域重力场时-空动态变化及其与2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5、2013年四川芦山MS7.0和2008年四川汶川MS8.0地震发生的关系。结果表明:1)强震发生前,重力场出现较大空间范围的区域性重力异常及与测区主要断裂构造带走向基本一致的重力变化高梯度带,可能反映地震前区域应力场的增强及沿主要断裂带在地震孕育发生期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的构造活动或变形;2)多时-空尺度的重力场动态变化图像均出现较显著的相对重力异常变化,随着累计时间的增长,重力变化更为显著,可视为强震的中期前兆信息,强震主要发生在重力场变化分布差异较为剧烈的地区;3)重力场动态变化对强震的地点预测具有重要指示作用,大区域重力网能较好地判断强震主体地区,时-空分辨率较高的省局区域重力网能较好地判定强震发震地点,为更好地判定强震发震位置,则需要相应的更密集的观测网点控制;4)文章第一作者在汶川、芦山、鲁甸地震前的中期预测尤其是地点预测均取得较好成效。基于上述认识,进而强调在研究区形成的一些重力变化异常部位可能仍存在大震中-长期危险背景,需继续加强监视。
Using the multiple-scale campaign gravity data in Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between the spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian,Yunnan Province MS6. 5 earthquake and the 2013 Lushan MS7. 0 and the 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. 1) Before the occurrence of great earthquakes,gravity anomalies occurred in large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress,as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes; 2) The continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields,as well as the greater gravity changes with larger time scales,can be regarded as the medium-range precursors of great earthquakes. The subsequent great earthquakes always occur at the area where the gravities change greatly; 3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are much useful in determining the epicenter of the coming great earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful in determining the major areas of the coming great earthquakes. However,the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore,denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasting the epicenters of great earthquakes. 4) Using gravity changes from campaign observation data,the first author of this paper had made medium-range predictions to the 2004 Ludian MS6. 5, 2013 Lushan MS7. 0 and 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0earthquakes,specially,the successful predictions of the location of epicenters. Based on above discussions,we emphasize that the medium / long-term potential of great earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Because of this reason the monitoring should be strengthened.
Using the multiple-scale campaign gravity data in Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between the spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian,Yunnan Province MS6. 5 earthquake and the 2013 Lushan MS7. 0 and the 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. 1) Before the occurrence of great earthquakes,gravity anomalies occurred in large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress,as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes; 2) The continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields,as well as the greater gravity changes with larger time scales,can be regarded as the medium-range precursors of great earthquakes. The subsequent great earthquakes always occur at the area where the gravities change greatly; 3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are much useful in determining the epicenter of the coming great earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful in determining the major areas of the coming great earthquakes. However,the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore,denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasting the epicenters of great earthquakes. 4) Using gravity changes from campaign observation data,the first author of this paper had made medium-range predictions to the 2004 Ludian MS6. 5, 2013 Lushan MS7. 0 and 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0earthquakes,specially,the successful predictions of the location of epicenters. Based on above discussions,we emphasize that the medium / long-term potential of great earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Because of this reason the monitoring should be strengthened.
引文
陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,等.2013.从汶川地震到芦山地震[J].中国科学(D辑),43(6):1064—1072.CHEN Yun-tai,YANG Zhi-xian,ZHANG Yong,et al.2013.From 2008 Wenchuan earthquake to 2013 Lushanearthquake[J].Science in China(Ser D),43(6):1064—1072(in Chinese).
顾功叙,Kuo J T,刘克人,等.1997.中国京津唐张地区时间上连续的重力变化与地震的孕育和发生[J].科学通报,42(18):1919—1930.GU Gong-xu,Kuo J T,LIU Ke-ren,et al.1997.Seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes as observed bytemporally continuous gravity variations in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,42(18):1919—1930(inChinese).
李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.2013.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,20(3):1—10.LI De-wei,CHEN Gui-fan,CHEN Ji-le,et al.2013.Earthquake prediction:From Lushan earthquake to continentaearthquakes[J].Earth Science Frontiers,20(3):1—10(in Chinese).
马瑾,马胜利,刘力强.1995.地震前异常的阶段性及其空间分布特征[J].地震地质,17(4):363—371.MA Jin,MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,et al.1995.The stages of anomalies before an earthquake and characteristics othe spatial distribution[J].Seismology and Geology,17(4):363—371(in Chinese).
马瑾,马胜利,刘力强,等.2000.交叉断层的交替活动与块体运动的实验研究[J].地震地质,22(1):65—73.MA Jin,MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,et al.2000.Experimental study on alternate slip of intersecting faults and blockmovement[J].Seismology and Geology,22(1):65—73(in Chinese).
滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,等.2008.2008年汶川MS8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1385—1402.TENG Ji-wen,BAI Deng-hai,YANG Hui,et al.2008.Deep processes and dynamic responses associated with theWenchuan MS8.0 earthquake of 2008[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(5):1385—1402(in Chinese).
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征[J].地震地质,22(3):239—249.WEN Xue-ze.2000.Character of rupture segmentation of the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone,westernSichuan[J].Seismology and Geology,22(3):239—249(in Chinese).
闻学泽,杜方,易桂喜,等.2013.川滇交界东段昭通、莲峰断裂带的地震危险背景[J].地球物理学报,56(10):3361—3372.WEN Xue-ze,DU Fang,YI Gui-xi,et al.2013.Earthquake potential of the Zhaotong and Lianfeng Fault zones of theeastern Sichuan-Yunnan border region[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,56(10):3361—3372(in Chinese).
闻学泽,范军,易桂喜,等.2008.川西安宁河断裂上的地震空区[J].中国科学(D辑),38(7):797—807.WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,YI Gui-xi,et al.2008.A seismic gap on the Anninghe Fault in western Sichuan,China[J].Science in China(Ser D),38(7):797—807(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the AnningheZemuhe fault zone from seismicity papamentrs[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
祝意青,胡斌,李辉.2003.新疆地区重力变化与伽师6.8级地震[J].大地测量与地球动力学,23(3):66—69.ZHU Yi-qing,HU Bin,LI Hui,et al.2003.Variation of gravity field of Xinjiang area and Jiashi MS6.8 earthquake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,23(3):66—69(in Chinese).
祝意青,江在森,陈兵,等.2001.南北地震带和青藏块体东部重力场演化与地震特征[J].中国地震,17(1):56—69.ZHU Yi-qing,JIANG Zai-sen,CHEN Bing,et al.2001.Study on evolution of gravity field prediction in the northsouth seismic belt and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang block[J].Earthquake Research in China,17(1):56—69(inChinese).
祝意青,李辉,朱桂芝,等.2004.青藏块体东北缘重力场演化与地震活动[J].地震学报,26(增):71—78.ZHU Yi-qng,LI Hui,ZHU Gui-zhi,et al.2004.Gravity evolution and earthquake activities of the northeastern edgeof Qinghai-Tibet block[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(Suppl):71—78(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,徐云马.2008.重力资料对2008年汶川MS8.0地震的中期预测[J].国际地震动态,(7):36—39.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,XU Yun-ma.2008.Medium-term prediction of MS8.0 earthquake in Wenchuan,Sichuan by mobile gravity[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(7):36—39(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,湛飞并,等.2012a.中国大陆重力场动态变化研究[J].地球物理学报,55(3):804—813.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,ZHAN Fei-bing,et al.2012a.Study on dynamic change of gravity field in Chinacontinent[J].Chinese J Geophys,55(3):804—813(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,陈石,等.2012b.青藏高原东北缘重力变化机理研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,32(3):1—6.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,CHEN Shi,et al.2012b.Study on mechanism of gravity field change in northeasternmargin of Qinghai-Tibet plateau[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,32(3):1—6(in Chinese).
祝意青,闻学泽,孙和平,等.2013.2013年四川芦山MS7.0地震前的重力变化[J].地球物理学报,56(6):1887—1894.ZHU Yi-qing,WEN Xue-ze,SUN He-ping,et al.2013.Gravity changes before the Lushan Sichuan MS=7.0earthquake of 2013[J].Chinese J Geophys,56(6):1887—1894(in Chinese).
祝意青,徐云马,吕弋培,等.2009.龙门山断裂带重力变化与汶川8.0级地震关系研究[J].地球物理学报,52(10):2538—2546.ZHU Yi-qing,XU Yun-ma,LYi-pei,et al.2009.Relations between gravity variation of Longmenshan Fault zoneand Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake[J].Chinese J Geophys,52(10):2538—2546(in Chinese).
祝意青,赵云峰,刘芳,等.2014.新疆新源、和静交界6.6级地震前的重力变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,34(1):4—7.ZHU Yi-qing,ZHAO Yun-feng,LIU Fang,et al.2014.Gravity changes before MS6.6 earthquake in boundary ofXinyuan and Hejing in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,34(1):4—7(in Chinese).
Chen Y T,Gu H D,Lu Z X.1979.Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake,1975,and theTangshan earthquake,1976[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,18(4):330—338.
Imanishi Y T,Sato T,Higashi W,et al.2004.A network of superconducting gravimeters detects submicrogalcoseismic gravity changes[J].Science,306:476—478.
Kuo J T,Zheng J H,Song S H.1999.Determination of earthquake epicentroids by inversion of gravity variation datain the BTTZ region,China[J].Tectonophysics,312(2):267—281.
Liang Weifeng,ZhaoY unfeng,Xu Yunma,et al.2013.Gravity observations along the eastern margin of the Tibetanplateau and an application to the Lushan MS7.0 earthquake[J].Earthquake Science,26(3-4):251—257.
Zhu Yiqing,Liu Fang,Cao Jianping,et al.2012.Gravity change before and after Yushu MS7.1 earthquake,2010[J].Geodesy and Geodynamics,3(4):1—6.
Zhu Yiqing,Liu Fang,Guo Shusong.2011.Temporal variation of gravity field before and after Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake[J].Geodesy and Geodynamics,2(2):33—38.
Zhu Y,Zhan F B,Zhou J,et al.2010.Gravity measurements and their variations before the 2008 Wenchuanearthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,100(5B):2815—2824
1祝意青等,2013,中国大陆重点监视区域重力场动态变化综合分析,中国地震局第二监测中心2014年度地震趋势研究报告。
顾功叙,Kuo J T,刘克人,等.1997.中国京津唐张地区时间上连续的重力变化与地震的孕育和发生[J].科学通报,42(18):1919—1930.GU Gong-xu,Kuo J T,LIU Ke-ren,et al.1997.Seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes as observed bytemporally continuous gravity variations in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,42(18):1919—1930(inChinese).
李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.2013.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,20(3):1—10.LI De-wei,CHEN Gui-fan,CHEN Ji-le,et al.2013.Earthquake prediction:From Lushan earthquake to continentaearthquakes[J].Earth Science Frontiers,20(3):1—10(in Chinese).
马瑾,马胜利,刘力强.1995.地震前异常的阶段性及其空间分布特征[J].地震地质,17(4):363—371.MA Jin,MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,et al.1995.The stages of anomalies before an earthquake and characteristics othe spatial distribution[J].Seismology and Geology,17(4):363—371(in Chinese).
马瑾,马胜利,刘力强,等.2000.交叉断层的交替活动与块体运动的实验研究[J].地震地质,22(1):65—73.MA Jin,MA Sheng-li,LIU Li-qiang,et al.2000.Experimental study on alternate slip of intersecting faults and blockmovement[J].Seismology and Geology,22(1):65—73(in Chinese).
滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,等.2008.2008年汶川MS8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1385—1402.TENG Ji-wen,BAI Deng-hai,YANG Hui,et al.2008.Deep processes and dynamic responses associated with theWenchuan MS8.0 earthquake of 2008[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(5):1385—1402(in Chinese).
闻学泽.2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征[J].地震地质,22(3):239—249.WEN Xue-ze.2000.Character of rupture segmentation of the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone,westernSichuan[J].Seismology and Geology,22(3):239—249(in Chinese).
闻学泽,杜方,易桂喜,等.2013.川滇交界东段昭通、莲峰断裂带的地震危险背景[J].地球物理学报,56(10):3361—3372.WEN Xue-ze,DU Fang,YI Gui-xi,et al.2013.Earthquake potential of the Zhaotong and Lianfeng Fault zones of theeastern Sichuan-Yunnan border region[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,56(10):3361—3372(in Chinese).
闻学泽,范军,易桂喜,等.2008.川西安宁河断裂上的地震空区[J].中国科学(D辑),38(7):797—807.WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,YI Gui-xi,et al.2008.A seismic gap on the Anninghe Fault in western Sichuan,China[J].Science in China(Ser D),38(7):797—807(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the AnningheZemuhe fault zone from seismicity papamentrs[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
祝意青,胡斌,李辉.2003.新疆地区重力变化与伽师6.8级地震[J].大地测量与地球动力学,23(3):66—69.ZHU Yi-qing,HU Bin,LI Hui,et al.2003.Variation of gravity field of Xinjiang area and Jiashi MS6.8 earthquake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,23(3):66—69(in Chinese).
祝意青,江在森,陈兵,等.2001.南北地震带和青藏块体东部重力场演化与地震特征[J].中国地震,17(1):56—69.ZHU Yi-qing,JIANG Zai-sen,CHEN Bing,et al.2001.Study on evolution of gravity field prediction in the northsouth seismic belt and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang block[J].Earthquake Research in China,17(1):56—69(inChinese).
祝意青,李辉,朱桂芝,等.2004.青藏块体东北缘重力场演化与地震活动[J].地震学报,26(增):71—78.ZHU Yi-qng,LI Hui,ZHU Gui-zhi,et al.2004.Gravity evolution and earthquake activities of the northeastern edgeof Qinghai-Tibet block[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(Suppl):71—78(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,徐云马.2008.重力资料对2008年汶川MS8.0地震的中期预测[J].国际地震动态,(7):36—39.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,XU Yun-ma.2008.Medium-term prediction of MS8.0 earthquake in Wenchuan,Sichuan by mobile gravity[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(7):36—39(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,湛飞并,等.2012a.中国大陆重力场动态变化研究[J].地球物理学报,55(3):804—813.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,ZHAN Fei-bing,et al.2012a.Study on dynamic change of gravity field in Chinacontinent[J].Chinese J Geophys,55(3):804—813(in Chinese).
祝意青,梁伟锋,陈石,等.2012b.青藏高原东北缘重力变化机理研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,32(3):1—6.ZHU Yi-qing,LIANG Wei-feng,CHEN Shi,et al.2012b.Study on mechanism of gravity field change in northeasternmargin of Qinghai-Tibet plateau[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,32(3):1—6(in Chinese).
祝意青,闻学泽,孙和平,等.2013.2013年四川芦山MS7.0地震前的重力变化[J].地球物理学报,56(6):1887—1894.ZHU Yi-qing,WEN Xue-ze,SUN He-ping,et al.2013.Gravity changes before the Lushan Sichuan MS=7.0earthquake of 2013[J].Chinese J Geophys,56(6):1887—1894(in Chinese).
祝意青,徐云马,吕弋培,等.2009.龙门山断裂带重力变化与汶川8.0级地震关系研究[J].地球物理学报,52(10):2538—2546.ZHU Yi-qing,XU Yun-ma,LYi-pei,et al.2009.Relations between gravity variation of Longmenshan Fault zoneand Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake[J].Chinese J Geophys,52(10):2538—2546(in Chinese).
祝意青,赵云峰,刘芳,等.2014.新疆新源、和静交界6.6级地震前的重力变化[J].大地测量与地球动力学,34(1):4—7.ZHU Yi-qing,ZHAO Yun-feng,LIU Fang,et al.2014.Gravity changes before MS6.6 earthquake in boundary ofXinyuan and Hejing in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,34(1):4—7(in Chinese).
Chen Y T,Gu H D,Lu Z X.1979.Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake,1975,and theTangshan earthquake,1976[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,18(4):330—338.
Imanishi Y T,Sato T,Higashi W,et al.2004.A network of superconducting gravimeters detects submicrogalcoseismic gravity changes[J].Science,306:476—478.
Kuo J T,Zheng J H,Song S H.1999.Determination of earthquake epicentroids by inversion of gravity variation datain the BTTZ region,China[J].Tectonophysics,312(2):267—281.
Liang Weifeng,ZhaoY unfeng,Xu Yunma,et al.2013.Gravity observations along the eastern margin of the Tibetanplateau and an application to the Lushan MS7.0 earthquake[J].Earthquake Science,26(3-4):251—257.
Zhu Yiqing,Liu Fang,Cao Jianping,et al.2012.Gravity change before and after Yushu MS7.1 earthquake,2010[J].Geodesy and Geodynamics,3(4):1—6.
Zhu Yiqing,Liu Fang,Guo Shusong.2011.Temporal variation of gravity field before and after Wenchuan MS8.0earthquake[J].Geodesy and Geodynamics,2(2):33—38.
Zhu Y,Zhan F B,Zhou J,et al.2010.Gravity measurements and their variations before the 2008 Wenchuanearthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,100(5B):2815—2824
1祝意青等,2013,中国大陆重点监视区域重力场动态变化综合分析,中国地震局第二监测中心2014年度地震趋势研究报告。
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