改进型图像信息方法提取地震电离层扰动异常研究进展
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摘要
首先总结了国内外利用法国DEMETER卫星观测数据识别和提取地震电离层中主要参量扰动异常的常规研究方法,介绍了图像信息方法(pattern infoimatics method,简称PI方法)研究地震活动性异常及其应用于中长期地震危险性预测的研究进展和成果.然后主要介绍了改进型图像信息方法(modified pattern informatics methodd,简称MPI方法)在提取电磁卫星数据资料中的进展应用.该方法的震例研究结果显示,地震电离层中电子浓度(N_e)、电子温度(T_e)异常出现的时间一般在震前一个月左右,相对于其它方法提取到的异常在震前几小时至数天内,这一突出特点将使得MPI方法在短临地震预报中更具有可操作性.然而,该方法能否作为提取地震电离层异常扰动的实用数据处理方法并应用于地震短临预测中,尚需要进一步深入研究.最后本文提出了将MPI方法应用于提取地震电离层异常信息需要进一步解决的几个问题.
This paper firstly summarized the main methods for identifying and extracting the abnormal disturbance of the ionosphere related to earthquake from the DEMETER satellite observation data.Then the modified pattern informatics(MPI) method,which is applied to extract the ionospheric disturbance anomaly from the French DEMETER satellite observation data,was mainly introduced.The results from the MPI method show that the abnormal disturbance of the ionosphere usually occurs about one month before an earthquake.Comparision of the MPI method with other methods shows that MPI method is more practical for earthquake prediction because the abnormal disturbance detected by other methods appears only a few hours to a few days before an earthquake and leaves only very short time for response.However,there is still a long way to go before MPI method can be applied to real time earthquake prediction.Finally,several issues about extracting ionospheric disturbance anomaly by MPI method are proposed to be solved in further study.
This paper firstly summarized the main methods for identifying and extracting the abnormal disturbance of the ionosphere related to earthquake from the DEMETER satellite observation data.Then the modified pattern informatics(MPI) method,which is applied to extract the ionospheric disturbance anomaly from the French DEMETER satellite observation data,was mainly introduced.The results from the MPI method show that the abnormal disturbance of the ionosphere usually occurs about one month before an earthquake.Comparision of the MPI method with other methods shows that MPI method is more practical for earthquake prediction because the abnormal disturbance detected by other methods appears only a few hours to a few days before an earthquake and leaves only very short time for response.However,there is still a long way to go before MPI method can be applied to real time earthquake prediction.Finally,several issues about extracting ionospheric disturbance anomaly by MPI method are proposed to be solved in further study.
引文
陈运泰.2009.地震预测:回顾与展望[J].中国科学:D辑,39(12):1633-1658.Chen Y T.2009.Earthquake prediction:Retrospect and prospect[J].Science in China-.Series D,39(12):1633-1658(in Chinese).
丁鉴海,申旭辉,潘威炎.张晶,余素荣,李纲,关华平.2006.地震电磁前兆研究进展[J].电波科学学报,21(5):791-801.Ding J H,Shen X H,Pan W Y,Zhang J,Yu S R,Li G,Guan H P.2006.Seismo-electromagnetism precursor research progress[J].Chinese Journal of Radio Science,21(5):791-801(in Chinese).
方涵先,翁利斌,王威,张建斌,韦浩.2010.电离层在地震短临预报中的应用[J].科学技术与工程,10(27):6694-6706.Fang H X,Weng L B,Wang W,Zhang J B,Wei H.2010.The application of ionosphere in short-term and imminent earthquake prediction[J].Science Technology and Engineering,10(27):6694-6706(in Chinese).
郭亚红.2006.地震前的电磁效应[J].地震地质,28(3):481-486.Guo Y H.2006.Pre-seismic electromagnetic effect[J].Seismology and Geology,28(3):481-486(in Chinese).
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2008.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学:D辑,38(7):852-861.Jing C S,Wu Z L.2008.Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Science in China:Series D,51(10):1401-1410.
尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙.2012.PI算法提取DEMETER卫星地震电离层扰动异常的应用研究[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:25-53.Nilupar T.2012.Study on Pattern Informatics(PI)Method for Detecting Seismo-Ionospheric Disturbances in DEMETER Satellite Data[D].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration:2b-53(in Chinese).
尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙,张永仙.2012.地震电磁卫星电离层扰动研究进展综述[J].地震,32(1):103-117.Nilupar T,Zhang Y X.2012.Recent research advances on ionospheric disturbances from seismo-electromagnetic satellite[J].Earthquake.32(1):103-117(in Chinese).
欧阳新艳.2008.利用DEMETER卫星数据提取地震异常的方法初探:以普洱地震为例[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:30-55.Ouyang X Y.2008.Study on Methods for Extracting Earthquake-Related Anomalies Using Observations of DEMETER Satellite Illustrated by the Case of Pu Vr[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration;30-55(in Chinese).
欧阳新艳,张学民,申旭辉,刘静,钱家栋,蔡晋安,赵庶凡.2008.普洱地震前电离层电子密度扰动变化研究[J].地震学报,30(4):424-435.Ouyang X Y,Zhang X M,Shen X H,Liu J,Qian J D,Cai J A.Zhao S F.2008.Study on ionospheric N_e disturbances before 2007 Pu'er,Yunnan of China,earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(4):424-436(in Chinese).
王春红.2009.基于DEMETER卫星地震电磁数据处理方法的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学信息科学与工程学院:7-16.Wang C H.2009.Research on Progressing Method for Seismo-Mugnetic Data on DEMETER Satellite[[J].Harbin;School of Information Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology:7-16(in Chinese).
武安绪,张永仙,周元泽.张小涛,李国江.2011.基于改进型图像信息方法的汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征研究[J].地球物理学报,54(10):2445-2457.Wu A X,Zhang Y X,Zhou Y Z.Zhang X T,Li G J.2011.On the spatial-temporal characteristics of ionospheric parameters before Wenchuan earthquake with the MP1 method[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,54(10):2445-2457(in Chinese).
熊攀.2009.小波方法在地震遥感信息提取中的应用[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:7-18.Xiong P.2009.Wavelet-Based Methods for Detecting Earthquake Information in Remote Sensing Data[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration:7-18(in Chinese).
曾中超,张蓓,方广有,王东峰,阴和俊.2009.利用DEMETER卫星数据分析汶川地震前的电离层异常[J].地球物理学报,52(1):11-19.Zeng Z C,Zhang B,Fang G Y,Wang D F,Yin H J.2009.The analysis of ionospheric variations before Wenchuan earthquake with DEMETER data[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(1):11-19(inChinese).
张小涛.2009.图像信息(PI)方法在我国大陆部分地区的应用研究[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:4-49.Zhang X T.2009.Study on the Earthquake Potential Regions in Most Parts of China by Pattern Informatics Method[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration;4-49(in Chinese).
张学民,刘静,钱家栋,申旭辉.蔡晋安,欧阳新艳.赵庶凡.2008.西藏改则6.9级地震前的电离层电磁扰动[J].地震,28(3):14-22.Zhang X M,Liu J,Qian J D.Shen X H,Cai J A,Ouyang X Y.Zhao S F.2008.Ionospheric electromagnetic disturbance before Gaize earthquake with M_s6.9.Tibet[J].Earthquake.28(3):14-22(in Chinese).
张学民.申旭辉,钱家栋.路立,陈化然,欧阳新艳.2009.我国地震电磁卫星数据分析及应用研究进展[J].地震,29(增刊):34-45.Zhang X M,Shen X H,Qian J D,Lu L,Chen H R,Ouyang X Y.2009.Advances in the analysis and application of seismo-electromagnetic satellite data in China[J].Earthquake.29(Suppl.):34-45(in Chinese).
赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.2007.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,22(3):667-673.Zhao G Z,Chen X B,Cai J T.2007.Electromagnetic observation by satellite and earthquake prediction[J].Progress in Geophysics.22(3):667-673(in Chinese).
朱荣.2007.从卫星观测数据提取地震电离层前兆信息的初探[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:1-44.Zhu R.2007.Preliminary Study of Extract Earthquake-Related Information in Ionospheric from Satellite Data[D].Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration:1-44(in Chinese).
朱荣,杨冬梅,荆凤,欧阳新艳.2007.从卫星观测数据提取地震前兆信息的震例研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,28(4):7-14.Zhu R,Yang D M,Jing F,Ouyang X Y.2007.Analysis of case studies of search for earthquake precursors from satellite data[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,28(4):7-14(in Chinese).
朱荣,杨冬梅,荆凤,杨俊英,欧阳新艳.2008.DEMETER卫星观测到的云南普洱地震前的电离层扰动[J].地震学报,30(1):76-81.Zhu R,Yang D M,Jing F,Yang J Y,Ouyang X Y.2008.Ionospheric perturbations before Pu'er earthquake observed by the satellite DEMETER[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(1):76-81(in Chinese).
卓贤军,赵国泽,王继军,汤吉,詹艳.2005.地震预测中的电磁卫星[J].大地测量与地球动力学,25(2):1-5.Zhuo X J,Zhao G Z.Wang J J,Tang J,Zhan Y.2005.Seismo-electromagnetic satellite in earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,25(2):1-5(in Chinese).
Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Nanjo K Z,Turcotte D L,Li S C,Tiampo K F.2005.The 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence[J].Geophys Res Lett,32(22):L22315.doi:10.1029/2005GL023991.
Chuo YJ,ChenYI,Liu J Y,Pulinets S A.2001.Ionospheric foF2 variations prior to strong earthquakes in Taiwan area[J].Adv Space Res,27(6):1305-1310.
Holliday J R,Nanjo K Z,Tiampo K F.2005.Earthquake forecasting and its verification[J].Nonlinear Proc Geoph,12(6):965-977.
Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Turcotte D L.2006.Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2417-2432.
Pulinets S A.1998.Seismic activity as a source of the inonspheric variability[J].AdvSpace Res,22(6):903-906.doi:10.1016/S0273-1177(98)00121-5.
Pulinets S A.2004.Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes:Recent advances in theory and practical applications[J].Terr Atmos Ocean Sci,15(3):413-435.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L.2000a.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomenal[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157(11/12):2165-2182.
Rundle J B,Klein W,GrossSJ,Tiampo K F.2000b.Dynamics of seismicity patterns in systems of earthquake faults[C]//GeoComplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes.Washington:AGU:127-146.
Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Martins J S S.2002.Self-organization in leaky threshold systems:The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes,neuro-biology,and forecasting[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,99(S1):2514-2521.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,Gross S J,Klein W.2002.Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics:An application to earthquake fault systems[J].Europhys Lett,60(3):481-487.
Zhang Y X,Zhang X T,Wu Y J,Yin X C.2011.Retrospective study on the predictability of pattern informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 earthquakes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,170(1/2):197-208.doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6.
丁鉴海,申旭辉,潘威炎.张晶,余素荣,李纲,关华平.2006.地震电磁前兆研究进展[J].电波科学学报,21(5):791-801.Ding J H,Shen X H,Pan W Y,Zhang J,Yu S R,Li G,Guan H P.2006.Seismo-electromagnetism precursor research progress[J].Chinese Journal of Radio Science,21(5):791-801(in Chinese).
方涵先,翁利斌,王威,张建斌,韦浩.2010.电离层在地震短临预报中的应用[J].科学技术与工程,10(27):6694-6706.Fang H X,Weng L B,Wang W,Zhang J B,Wei H.2010.The application of ionosphere in short-term and imminent earthquake prediction[J].Science Technology and Engineering,10(27):6694-6706(in Chinese).
郭亚红.2006.地震前的电磁效应[J].地震地质,28(3):481-486.Guo Y H.2006.Pre-seismic electromagnetic effect[J].Seismology and Geology,28(3):481-486(in Chinese).
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2008.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学:D辑,38(7):852-861.Jing C S,Wu Z L.2008.Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Science in China:Series D,51(10):1401-1410.
尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙.2012.PI算法提取DEMETER卫星地震电离层扰动异常的应用研究[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:25-53.Nilupar T.2012.Study on Pattern Informatics(PI)Method for Detecting Seismo-Ionospheric Disturbances in DEMETER Satellite Data[D].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration:2b-53(in Chinese).
尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙,张永仙.2012.地震电磁卫星电离层扰动研究进展综述[J].地震,32(1):103-117.Nilupar T,Zhang Y X.2012.Recent research advances on ionospheric disturbances from seismo-electromagnetic satellite[J].Earthquake.32(1):103-117(in Chinese).
欧阳新艳.2008.利用DEMETER卫星数据提取地震异常的方法初探:以普洱地震为例[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:30-55.Ouyang X Y.2008.Study on Methods for Extracting Earthquake-Related Anomalies Using Observations of DEMETER Satellite Illustrated by the Case of Pu Vr[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration;30-55(in Chinese).
欧阳新艳,张学民,申旭辉,刘静,钱家栋,蔡晋安,赵庶凡.2008.普洱地震前电离层电子密度扰动变化研究[J].地震学报,30(4):424-435.Ouyang X Y,Zhang X M,Shen X H,Liu J,Qian J D,Cai J A.Zhao S F.2008.Study on ionospheric N_e disturbances before 2007 Pu'er,Yunnan of China,earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(4):424-436(in Chinese).
王春红.2009.基于DEMETER卫星地震电磁数据处理方法的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学信息科学与工程学院:7-16.Wang C H.2009.Research on Progressing Method for Seismo-Mugnetic Data on DEMETER Satellite[[J].Harbin;School of Information Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology:7-16(in Chinese).
武安绪,张永仙,周元泽.张小涛,李国江.2011.基于改进型图像信息方法的汶川地震前电离层参量时空特征研究[J].地球物理学报,54(10):2445-2457.Wu A X,Zhang Y X,Zhou Y Z.Zhang X T,Li G J.2011.On the spatial-temporal characteristics of ionospheric parameters before Wenchuan earthquake with the MP1 method[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,54(10):2445-2457(in Chinese).
熊攀.2009.小波方法在地震遥感信息提取中的应用[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:7-18.Xiong P.2009.Wavelet-Based Methods for Detecting Earthquake Information in Remote Sensing Data[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration:7-18(in Chinese).
曾中超,张蓓,方广有,王东峰,阴和俊.2009.利用DEMETER卫星数据分析汶川地震前的电离层异常[J].地球物理学报,52(1):11-19.Zeng Z C,Zhang B,Fang G Y,Wang D F,Yin H J.2009.The analysis of ionospheric variations before Wenchuan earthquake with DEMETER data[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(1):11-19(inChinese).
张小涛.2009.图像信息(PI)方法在我国大陆部分地区的应用研究[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所:4-49.Zhang X T.2009.Study on the Earthquake Potential Regions in Most Parts of China by Pattern Informatics Method[[J].Beijing:Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration;4-49(in Chinese).
张学民,刘静,钱家栋,申旭辉.蔡晋安,欧阳新艳.赵庶凡.2008.西藏改则6.9级地震前的电离层电磁扰动[J].地震,28(3):14-22.Zhang X M,Liu J,Qian J D.Shen X H,Cai J A,Ouyang X Y.Zhao S F.2008.Ionospheric electromagnetic disturbance before Gaize earthquake with M_s6.9.Tibet[J].Earthquake.28(3):14-22(in Chinese).
张学民.申旭辉,钱家栋.路立,陈化然,欧阳新艳.2009.我国地震电磁卫星数据分析及应用研究进展[J].地震,29(增刊):34-45.Zhang X M,Shen X H,Qian J D,Lu L,Chen H R,Ouyang X Y.2009.Advances in the analysis and application of seismo-electromagnetic satellite data in China[J].Earthquake.29(Suppl.):34-45(in Chinese).
赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.2007.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,22(3):667-673.Zhao G Z,Chen X B,Cai J T.2007.Electromagnetic observation by satellite and earthquake prediction[J].Progress in Geophysics.22(3):667-673(in Chinese).
朱荣.2007.从卫星观测数据提取地震电离层前兆信息的初探[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:1-44.Zhu R.2007.Preliminary Study of Extract Earthquake-Related Information in Ionospheric from Satellite Data[D].Beijing:Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration:1-44(in Chinese).
朱荣,杨冬梅,荆凤,欧阳新艳.2007.从卫星观测数据提取地震前兆信息的震例研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,28(4):7-14.Zhu R,Yang D M,Jing F,Ouyang X Y.2007.Analysis of case studies of search for earthquake precursors from satellite data[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,28(4):7-14(in Chinese).
朱荣,杨冬梅,荆凤,杨俊英,欧阳新艳.2008.DEMETER卫星观测到的云南普洱地震前的电离层扰动[J].地震学报,30(1):76-81.Zhu R,Yang D M,Jing F,Yang J Y,Ouyang X Y.2008.Ionospheric perturbations before Pu'er earthquake observed by the satellite DEMETER[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(1):76-81(in Chinese).
卓贤军,赵国泽,王继军,汤吉,詹艳.2005.地震预测中的电磁卫星[J].大地测量与地球动力学,25(2):1-5.Zhuo X J,Zhao G Z.Wang J J,Tang J,Zhan Y.2005.Seismo-electromagnetic satellite in earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,25(2):1-5(in Chinese).
Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Nanjo K Z,Turcotte D L,Li S C,Tiampo K F.2005.The 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence[J].Geophys Res Lett,32(22):L22315.doi:10.1029/2005GL023991.
Chuo YJ,ChenYI,Liu J Y,Pulinets S A.2001.Ionospheric foF2 variations prior to strong earthquakes in Taiwan area[J].Adv Space Res,27(6):1305-1310.
Holliday J R,Nanjo K Z,Tiampo K F.2005.Earthquake forecasting and its verification[J].Nonlinear Proc Geoph,12(6):965-977.
Nanjo K Z,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,Turcotte D L.2006.Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2417-2432.
Pulinets S A.1998.Seismic activity as a source of the inonspheric variability[J].AdvSpace Res,22(6):903-906.doi:10.1016/S0273-1177(98)00121-5.
Pulinets S A.2004.Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes:Recent advances in theory and practical applications[J].Terr Atmos Ocean Sci,15(3):413-435.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L.2000a.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomenal[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157(11/12):2165-2182.
Rundle J B,Klein W,GrossSJ,Tiampo K F.2000b.Dynamics of seismicity patterns in systems of earthquake faults[C]//GeoComplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes.Washington:AGU:127-146.
Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,Martins J S S.2002.Self-organization in leaky threshold systems:The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes,neuro-biology,and forecasting[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,99(S1):2514-2521.
Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S,Gross S J,Klein W.2002.Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics:An application to earthquake fault systems[J].Europhys Lett,60(3):481-487.
Zhang Y X,Zhang X T,Wu Y J,Yin X C.2011.Retrospective study on the predictability of pattern informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 earthquakes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,170(1/2):197-208.doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6.
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