The Mineral Resources Demand Theory and the Prediction Model

• 责任者：Wang Anjian (Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources ; CAGS ; Beijing 100037 ; China) ; Wang Gaoshang
• 刊名：Acta Geoscientica Sinica
• 出版年：2010
• 卷期：31(2)
• 关键词：矿产资源 ; mineral resources ; 市场需求 ; market stabilization
• 页码：p.137-147
• 图表：13 illus., 2 tables, 28 refs.
• 分类号：2100
• issnNo：ISSN1006-3021
• isbnNo：CN11-3474/P

This paper describes the energy and mineral resources demand theory centered on capita mineral resources consumption and capita GDP S-shaped rules, mineral resources consumption intensity reverse U-shaped rules and progressive laws of wave rules for mineral resources demand, and the energy and mineral resources synthetic prediction model based on the demand theory. The primary energy, crude steel, copper and aluminum demand tendency in China and the whole globe between 2010 and 2030 was predicted by using this model, and the results were compared with the results obtained by other prediction methods. On such a basis, it is concluded that this theoretical model is advanced and reliable.