Evaluation of the Simulation Performance and Scenario Analysis for Temperature and Precipitation by Ipcc Ar4 Global Climate Models on Yangtze River Basin

• 责任者：Hao Zhenchun (State Key Laboratory of HydrologyWater Resources and Hydraulic Engineering ; Hohai University ; Nanjing 210098) ; Ju Qin
• 刊名：Quaternary Sciences
• 出版年：2010
• 卷期：30(1)
• 关键词：气候 ; climate ; 长江流域 ; Yangtze River valley
• 页码：p.127-137
• 图表：illus., 4 tablesm 27 refs.
• 分类号：1800
• issnNo：ISSN1001-7410
• isbnNo：CN11-2708/P

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper，the authors evaluate the performance of the 22 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin by comparing with ground observations for 1961～1990. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and some models overestimate precipitation in most regions in the Yangtze River Basin. Only a few models show roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations.