One Approach for Predicting Earthquake Risk Area from Synthesizing Fixed-Point Precursory Anomalies
详细信息
- 责任者：Zhang Xi (Second Crust Deformation Monitoring and Application Center ; CEA ; Xi’an 710054 ; China) ; Li Ruisha
- 刊名：Journal of Seismological Research
- 出版年：2012
- 卷期：35(1)
- 关键词：地震前兆 ; precursor ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
- 页码：p.1-5
- 图表：2 illus., 3 tables, 19 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-0666
- isbnNo：CN53-1062/P
摘要
Precursory anomalies of deformation and fluid measured in fixed-point appear the trend features of moving and concentrating from distance areas to the near of seismic area before the Zhangbei MS6.2 earthquake in 1998. Constructing abnormal signal spreading function,and using grid searching-quasi Newton least square method, the authors inverse the converged region of precursory anomalies which is the predicting possible risk region. The result shows that the distance between the margin of calculated converged region and the real epicenter is only 25~51 km. The difference between the converging time and the original time is only several days. Moreover, the converging rate speeds up at the middle-short term before Zhangbei MS6.2 earthquake.