- 责任者：Wang Haiyun (Institute of Engineering Mechanics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Harbin 150080 ; China) ; Xie Lili
- 刊名：Earth Science---Journal of China University of Geosciences
- 出版年：2008
- 卷期：33(6)
- 关键词：强震 ; strong shocks ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
- 页码：p.843-851
- 图表：2 illus., 3 tables, 35 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1000-2383
- isbnNo：CN42-1233/P
A new method and steps of setting up a finite fault source model of a scenario earthquake on an active fault for predicting near-fault strong ground motion are proposed here. Firstly, spatial orientation and slip type of the active fault are deduced from data of seismic geology, seismicity, and geophysics exploration and so on. Secondly, macro-source parameters of the active fault are inferred from seismic sealing laws. Thirdly, the hybrid slip model on the fault plane is generated by combining the asperity model with k square slip model. On the basis of the above mentioned, the finite fault source model of a scenario earthquake (its fault type and moment magnitude the same as 1994 Northridge earthquake’s, i.e., the reverse fault and Mw6.7) is predicted consequently. Lastly, combining the finite fault source model predicted by mentioned-above with stochastic method of synthesizing ground motion using dynamic corner frequency based on seismology, the authors predict acceleration time histories of the 12 stations during 1994 Northridge earthquake.