The Active Pattern and Future Trend of Earthquakes with MS≥7 in Philippines in Recent 50 years
详细信息
- 责任者：Cui Xujia (College of Tourism & Environment Sciences ; Shanxi Normal University ; Xi’an 710062 ; China) ; Yan Junping
- 刊名：South China Journal of Seismology
- 出版年：2013
- 卷期：33(2)
- 关键词：地震活动性 ; seismicity ; 菲律宾 ; Philippines
- 页码：p.47-54
- 图表：illus., 2 tables, 23 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN1001-8662
- isbnNo：CN44-1266/P
摘要
Based on the study of earthquakes with MS≥7 in Philippines inrecent50years by using the method of commensurability、 butterfly diagram and space-time migration of epicenter,we find that there is a strong signal that earthquakes with MS≥7 will occur between 2013 and 2014,specifically in 2014.We also find that there is a 22a primary period of earthquake,which can be divided into the active period and quiet period,meanwhile,a new earthquake period and an active period begins in 2012.Temporal and spatial migration law of epicenter of earthquakes with MS≥7 in Philippines is obvious,and will move toward northwest in future.Earthquake with MS≥7 in Philippines is closed related to sunspot activity,it often occures in solarmax and descent stage when sunspot activity is even period,Now sunspot activity may be a solarmax in the 24 period,the occurrence probability of earthquake with MS≥7 is high between 2013 and 2014.This is basically consistent with the result of commensurability.