云南1971~2006年暖冬的时空变化分析
|
摘要
暖冬的频繁发生已经对农业生产、人类健康和生态系统产生直接的影响。根据云南省1971~2006年冬季平均气温观测资料,采用概率气候事件划分方法确定单站暖冬阈值和暖冬强度等级标准,得到全省逐年暖冬指数,分析云南省"暖"冬的变化趋势和分布特征。结果表明:云南省冬季普遍增暖,1971~2006年共出现13个暖冬年,暖冬年在时间分布上很不均匀,在1997年以后呈现明显变暖趋势。
The frequent occurrence of warm winters had direct impact on agricultural production,human health and ecosystems and so on.The method of the weather events probability was applied in determining warmer winter threshold and intensity of single station based on the data of the winter average temperature Yunnan Province 1971~2006.Then the warm index of Yunnan Province could be achieved.Warmer winter variation and trend of Yunnan province was discussed.The results showed that:winter was widely warmer in Yunnan Province,1971~2006 there were 13 warm winters,the warm winter in the time distribution is very uneven,since 1997 distinct warming trend.
The frequent occurrence of warm winters had direct impact on agricultural production,human health and ecosystems and so on.The method of the weather events probability was applied in determining warmer winter threshold and intensity of single station based on the data of the winter average temperature Yunnan Province 1971~2006.Then the warm index of Yunnan Province could be achieved.Warmer winter variation and trend of Yunnan province was discussed.The results showed that:winter was widely warmer in Yunnan Province,1971~2006 there were 13 warm winters,the warm winter in the time distribution is very uneven,since 1997 distinct warming trend.
引文
[1]HONGHTON J T,DING Y,GRIGGS D J,et al.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge U-niversity Press,2001:881-884.
[2]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):702-716.
[3]唐红玉,翟盘茂,王振宇.1951~2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):728-735.
[4]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-25.
[5]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB/T21983-2008,中华人民共和国国家标准暖冬等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[6]GONG D Y,PAN Y Z,WANG J A.Change in Extreme Daily Mean Temperatures in Summer in Eastern China During 1955~2000[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2004,(77):25-37.
[7]王凌,张强,陈峪,等.1956~2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,(1):26-32.
[8]缪启龙,许遐祯,潘文卓.南京56年来冬季气温变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(5):620-626.
[9]贺皓,罗慧,高红燕,等.陕西冷暖冬年的标准及平均环流特征分析[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):759-754.
[2]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):702-716.
[3]唐红玉,翟盘茂,王振宇.1951~2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):728-735.
[4]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-25.
[5]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB/T21983-2008,中华人民共和国国家标准暖冬等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[6]GONG D Y,PAN Y Z,WANG J A.Change in Extreme Daily Mean Temperatures in Summer in Eastern China During 1955~2000[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2004,(77):25-37.
[7]王凌,张强,陈峪,等.1956~2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,(1):26-32.
[8]缪启龙,许遐祯,潘文卓.南京56年来冬季气温变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(5):620-626.
[9]贺皓,罗慧,高红燕,等.陕西冷暖冬年的标准及平均环流特征分析[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):759-754.
目录