全球城市宜居性评价及发展趋势预测——以上海市为例
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摘要
全球城市是世界城市化发展的一个必然现象,作为城市发展的高级形态,在社会、经济、文化和政治层面直接影响着全球事务.上海作为中国现代化的引领者,提高宜居性是其建设全球城市的重要目标之一.参考已有的全球城市宜居性评价指标体系,根据现代城市发展特点对指标进行了修正,并以上海市为典型案例,结合全球城市纽约和东京的发展历程,验证了全球城市宜居性发展的N型曲线假说:即随着城市人均收入的增长,城市宜居性经历了"上升-下降-上升"的发展阶段.通过因素分解方法分析了不同发展阶段城市宜居性的主要影响因子,同时采用指数平滑法和Logistic增长模型对上海市未来30年宜居性进行了四种情景预测.以东京为参照,得出了未来30年上海能达到最高宜居性的结论,可为上海全球城市的宜居环境建设提供方向.
Global city is an inevitable form in the development of urban city,which influences global affairs directly in all aspects including sociology,economics,culture and politics.As a leader in modernization in China,improving livability is one of the most important tasks in the construction of global city for Shanghai.Based on the existing evaluation index system of global city's livability,modifications in indexes are made according to the characteristics in the development of modern cities.By comparison of New York,Tokyo and Shanghai,we propose and verify the "N-curve hypothesis" of livability in global cities:livability experiences "up-down-up" process with rising per capita income.Decomposition analysis is used for identifying main factors of livability during different development stages.Moreover,four scenarios based on Exponential Smoothing method and Logistic model are set to predict the development of livability of Shanghai in next 30 years.Result shows that vision according to development of Tokyo while keeping Shanghai's own advantages can achieve the best livability,which can be helpful for construction of livable Shanghai.
Global city is an inevitable form in the development of urban city,which influences global affairs directly in all aspects including sociology,economics,culture and politics.As a leader in modernization in China,improving livability is one of the most important tasks in the construction of global city for Shanghai.Based on the existing evaluation index system of global city's livability,modifications in indexes are made according to the characteristics in the development of modern cities.By comparison of New York,Tokyo and Shanghai,we propose and verify the "N-curve hypothesis" of livability in global cities:livability experiences "up-down-up" process with rising per capita income.Decomposition analysis is used for identifying main factors of livability during different development stages.Moreover,four scenarios based on Exponential Smoothing method and Logistic model are set to predict the development of livability of Shanghai in next 30 years.Result shows that vision according to development of Tokyo while keeping Shanghai's own advantages can achieve the best livability,which can be helpful for construction of livable Shanghai.
引文
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[2]FRIEDMANN J.The world city hypothesis[J].Development and Change,1986,17(1):69-83.
[3]SASSEN S.The Global City:New York,London,Tokyo[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,1991.
[4]SOJA E.Thirdspace:Journeys to Los Angeles and Other Real and Imagined Space[M],Oxford:Blackwell,1996.
[5]SCOTT A,SOJA E.Los angeles:the capital of the twentieth century[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,1986(4):201-216.
[6]KNOX P L.World Cities and the Organization of Global Space[M].Oxford:Blackwell,2002.
[7]CASTELLS M.The Information City[M].London:Blackwell,1989.
[8]TAYLOR P.World Cities and Territorial States:the Rise and Fall of Their Mutuality[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995.
[9]LEFEVRE H.The Production of Space[M].Oxford:Blackwell,1991.
[10]BEAVERSTOCK J V,SMITH R G,TAYLOR P J.A roster of world cities[J].Cities,1999,16(6):445-458.
[11]EVANS P B.Livable Cities?Urban Struggles for Livelihood and Sustainability[M].Los Angeles:University of California Press,2002.
[12]吴志强.《百年西方城市规划理论史纲》导论[J].城市规划汇刊,2000(2):9-18.
[13]埃比尼泽.霍华德.明日的田园城市[M].金经元,译.北京:商务印书馆,2002.
[14]张京祥.西方城市规划思想史纲fMl.南京:东南大学出版社,2005.
[15]DOXIADIS C A.Ecology and Ekistics[M].London:Westview Press,1977.
[16]OMUTA G E D.The quality of urban life and the perception of livability:a case study of neighborhoods in Benin City,Nigeria[J],Social Indicators Research,1988,20(4):417-440.
[17]DOUGLASS M.From global intercity competition to cooperation for livable cities and economic resilience in Pacific Asia[J].Environment and Urbanization,2002,14(1):53-68.
[18]SAKAMOTO A,FUKUI H.Development and application of a livable environment evaluation support system using Web GIS[J].Journal of Geographical Systems,2004,6(2):175-195.
[19]张文忠.城市内部居住环境评价的指标体系和方法[J].地理科学,2007,27(1):17-23.
[20]吴良镛.人居环境科学导论[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2001.
[21]宁越敏,查志强.大都市人居环境评价和优化研究—以上海为例[J].城市规划,1999,23(6):15-20.
[22]李王鸣,叶信岳,孙于.城市人居环境评价:以杭州为例[J].经济地理,1999,19(2):38-43.
[23]陈浮,陈海燕,朱振华,等.城市人居环境与满意度评价研究[J].人文地理,2000,15(4):20-23.
[24]刘旺,刘长岐,张文忠.北京城市内部人居环境评价及对居住建设的启示[J].华中建筑,2004,22(1):2-3.
[25]熊鹰,曾光明,董力三,等.城市人居环境与经济协调发展不确定性定量评价:以长沙市为例[J].地理学报,2007,62(4):397-406.
[26]董晓峰,杨保军.宜居城市研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2008,23(3):323.326.
[27]王世营,诸大建,臧漫丹.走出宜居城市研究的悖论:概念模型与路径选择[J].城市规划学刊,2010(1):42-48.
[28]MALECKI E J.The economic geography of the internet's infrastructure[J].Economic Geography,2002,78(4):399-424.
[29]周振华.崛起中的全球城市:理论框架及中国模式研究[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007.
[30]CHURKINA G.Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,216(2):107-113.
目录