基于WRF的江西电网110~500kV输电线路雷电短期预警方法研究
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摘要
在江西省110 kV~500 kV输电线路雷击跳闸情况分析的基础上,利用最新的中尺度模式WRF对发生在江西省内的一次雷击事件过程进行模拟预报,并对比分析对流有效位能、对流抑制能量的有效区域和雷电定位系统数据落雷区域,验证该方法的可用性。结果表明:WRF模拟结果能够成功预报所有监测雷电落点图密集区,即能很好反映雷电天气过程的空间位置,在时间上亦能提前预报雷电天气过程发生时间段,说明在模式72 h预报的基础上能够对雷电防灾预警提供支持。
Based on the analysis of 110 kV~500 kV transmission line lightning trip in Jiangxi province,a lightning process which occurred in Jiangxi province is simulated and forecasted with the latest meso scale WRF model.The effective area of convective available potential energy(CAPE) and convective inhibition energy(CIN) with the area of actual lightning of the Lightning Location System(LSS) are compared and analyzed to verify the availability of the method.The results show that WRF not only can able to successfully predict the actual lightning occurs zone which can well reflect the spatial location of lightning weather process,but also can early forecasting the periods of lightning process.So it can offer support to the lightning early 72 h warning.
Based on the analysis of 110 kV~500 kV transmission line lightning trip in Jiangxi province,a lightning process which occurred in Jiangxi province is simulated and forecasted with the latest meso scale WRF model.The effective area of convective available potential energy(CAPE) and convective inhibition energy(CIN) with the area of actual lightning of the Lightning Location System(LSS) are compared and analyzed to verify the availability of the method.The results show that WRF not only can able to successfully predict the actual lightning occurs zone which can well reflect the spatial location of lightning weather process,but also can early forecasting the periods of lightning process.So it can offer support to the lightning early 72 h warning.
引文
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[20]刘伟,高艳红.能量参数在中川机场雷暴预测中的应用[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):791-797.LIU Wei,GAO Yanhong.Application of some simulated energy index to thunderstorm forecast at Zhongchuan airport[J].Plateau Meteorology,2007,26(4):791-797.
[2]邹贵彬,高厚磊,朱峰,等.输电线路雷击与故障的积分识别方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(9):43-48.ZOU Guibin,GAO Houlei,ZHU Feng,et al.Integral identification method of lightning stroke and fault for transmission line[J].Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(9):43-48.
[3]张保会,张嵩,尤敏,等.高压直流输电线路单端暂态量保护研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(15):18-23.ZHANG Baohui,ZHANG Song,YOU Min,et al.Research on transient-based protection for HVDC lines[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(15):18-23.
[4]何金良,董林,张薛巍,等.输电线路防雷分析分形模型及其统计特性[J].高电压技术,2010(6):1333-1340.HE Jinliang,DONG Lin,ZHANG Xunwei,et al.Fractal model and statistical characteristics of lightning protection analysis of transmission line[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010(6):1333-1340.
[5]赵淳,陈家宏,王剑,等.电网雷害风险评估技术研究[J].高电压技术,2012,37(12):3012-3021.ZHAO Chun,CHEN Jiahong,WANG Jian,et al.Research on technology of lightning disaster risk assessment for power system[J].High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(12):3012-3021.
[6]谷山强,陈家宏,陈维江,等.架空输电线路雷击闪络预警方法[J].高电压技术,2013,39(2):423-429.GU Shanqiang,CHEN Jiahong,CHEN Weijiang,et al.Method for lightning flashover warning of overhead transmission lines[J].High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(2):423-429.
[7]童雪芳,王海涛,陈家宏,等.雷电定位系统地闪密度分布图与雷击故障相关性分析[J].高电压技术,2009(12):2924-2929.TONG Xuefang,WABG Haitao,CHEN Jiahong,et al.Analysis of correlation between cloud-to-ground flash density map using LLS and lightning flashover[J].High Voltage Engineering,2009(12):2924-2929.
[8]龚嘉锵,郭凤霞,田琨,等.基于WRF模式的雷电潜势预报[J].气象科学,2014,34(2):206-212.GONG Jiaqiang,GUO Fengxia,TIAN Kun,et al.The lightning potential forecast with WRF model[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(2):206-212.
[9]沙跃龙.雷电预警预报技术研究与实现[D].电子科技大学,2009.SHA Yuelong.Study and realize on the lightning forecast and early-warning technology[D].University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2009.
[10]王强,王建初,顾宇丹.电场时序差分在雷电预警中的有效性分析[J].气象科学,2009,29(5):657-663.WANG Qiang,WANG Jianchu,GU Yudan,et al.Validity analysis of electric field temporal difference in thunderstorm waming[J].Internal Publication,2008.
[11]VINCENT B R,CAREY L D,SCHNEIDER D,et al.Using WSR-88D reflectivity data for the prediction of cloud-toground lightning:A central north Carolina study[J].Natl.Wea.Dig,2004(27):35-44.
[12]SMITH S B.A comparison of satellite-observed cloud-top cooling and the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning[C].18th Conference on Severe Local Storms.San Francisco,USA,1996:479-482.
[13]WILLIAM C Skamarock,JOSEPH B Klemp.A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2008,227(7):3465-3485.
[14]ZAVISA Janjic,BLACK T,PYLE M,et al.High resolution applications of the WRF NMM[C].21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,Washington:American Meteorological Society,2005.
[15]钱传海,张金艳,应冬梅,等.2003年4月江西一次强对流天气过程的诊断分析[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(4):460-467.QIAN Chuanhai,ZHANG Jinyan,YING Dongmei,et al.A severe convection weather of Jiangxi in april 2003[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2007,18(4):460-467.
[16]李耀东,高守亭,刘健文.对流能量计算及强对流天气落区预报技术研究[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(1):10-20.LI Yaodong,GAO Shouting,LIU Jianwen.A calculation of convective energy and the method of severe weather fore casting[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,2004,15(1):10-20.
[17]刘玉玲.对流参数在强对流天气潜势预测中的作用[J].气象科技,2004,31(3):147-151.LIU Yuling.A study of severe convective parameters and their potential predictability to severe convective storms[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2004,31(3):147-151.
[18]HUNTRIESER H,S CHIESSER H H,SCHMID W,et al.A new thunderstorm index for Switzerland.18th Conference on Severe Local Storms.Amer Meteor Soc,1996:255-259.
[19]梁爱民,张庆红,申红喜,等.北京地区雷暴大风预报研究[J].气象,2006,32(11):73-80.LIANG Aimin,ZHANG Qinhong,SHEN Hongxi,et al.Application of NCEP data and doppler.weather radar data to thunderstorm prediction in Beijing area[J].Meteorological Monthly,2006,32(11):73-80.
[20]刘伟,高艳红.能量参数在中川机场雷暴预测中的应用[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):791-797.LIU Wei,GAO Yanhong.Application of some simulated energy index to thunderstorm forecast at Zhongchuan airport[J].Plateau Meteorology,2007,26(4):791-797.
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