长江河口沿海区域温带风暴潮预报模式的建立与应用
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摘要
长江口地区既受到台风风暴潮影响,又受到温带风暴潮影响,而长江口地区温带风暴潮研究较少.因此,本文利用新一代中尺度大气模式——WRF,结合有限元二维水动力模型——ADCIRC,并耦合近海浅水风浪数值模型——SWAN,建立了一个长江口及邻近区域温带风暴潮预报模型.利用实测资料对温带风暴潮模型进行率定和后报检验,相对误差控制在10%之内.利用该模型,对温带风暴潮增水的特征及机制进行讨论分析,对比了风应力和气压对增水的贡献,并探讨了增减水对风向的响应,得到了一些有意义的结果.
The Changjiang estuary(CE) is influenced by tropical storm surges in summer,and extratropical storm surges in winter.However,there has been limited research on the latter and numerical hindcast/forecast model.Therefore,a forecasting model for extratropical storm surges is set up for the CE and adjacent region using mesoscale weather model WRF,hydrodynamic model ADCIRC and coupled with nearshore wave model SWAN.The observed data of wind and water levels were used to make extensive model calibration,especially the hindcast validation,and the overall average relative error is less than 10%,which indicates excellent model precision and reliability.Based on this hindcast/forecast model,the major characteristics and mechanism of winter extratropical storm surges around the CE has been discussed and analyzed.And the contribution of wind stress and air pressure on the surge has been quantitatively revealed.The surge's response to the wind direction is also discussed.
The Changjiang estuary(CE) is influenced by tropical storm surges in summer,and extratropical storm surges in winter.However,there has been limited research on the latter and numerical hindcast/forecast model.Therefore,a forecasting model for extratropical storm surges is set up for the CE and adjacent region using mesoscale weather model WRF,hydrodynamic model ADCIRC and coupled with nearshore wave model SWAN.The observed data of wind and water levels were used to make extensive model calibration,especially the hindcast validation,and the overall average relative error is less than 10%,which indicates excellent model precision and reliability.Based on this hindcast/forecast model,the major characteristics and mechanism of winter extratropical storm surges around the CE has been discussed and analyzed.And the contribution of wind stress and air pressure on the surge has been quantitatively revealed.The surge's response to the wind direction is also discussed.
引文
[1]冯士筰.风暴潮导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1982.
[2]丁平兴,葛建忠.长江口横沙浅滩及邻近海域灾害性天气分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013(4):72-78.
[3]徐秀芳,戴建华,尹红萍.近20年影响上海的寒潮特点[J].大气科学研究与应用,2009(1):73-80.
[4]陈华伟,葛建忠,丁平兴.波浪对台风风暴潮过程的影响分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4):16-25.
[5]赵长进,葛建忠,丁平兴.长江口及其邻近海区无结构网格风暴潮预报系统的研制与分析[J].海洋科学进展,2015(2):182-194.
[6]ZHAO C J,GE J Z,DING P X.Impact of sea level rise on storm surges around the Changjiang estuary[J].Journal of Coastal Rearch,2014,68:27-34.
[7]张金善,孔俊,章卫胜,等.长江河口动力与风暴潮相互作用研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2008(4):1-7.
[8]葛建忠,胡克林,丁平兴.风暴潮集成预报可视化系统设计及应用[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007(4):20-25.
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[12]秦曾灏,冯士筰.浅海风暴潮动力学机制的初步研究口].中国科学,1975,18(1),64-79.
[13]孙文心,冯士柞,秦曾灏.超浅海风暴潮的数值模拟(一):零阶模拟对渤海风潮的初步应用[J].海洋学报,1979,1(2):193-211.
[14]孙文心,秦曾灏,冯士筰.超浅海风暴潮的数值模拟(二):渤海风潮的一阶模型EJ].山东海洋学院学报,1980,10(2):7-19.
[15]王喜年.全球海洋的风暴潮灾害概况[J].海洋预报,1993,10(1):30-36.
[16]王喜年.关于温带风暴潮[J].海洋预报,2005,22(z1).17-23.
[17]于福江,王喜年,戴明瑞.影响连云港的几次显著温带风暴潮过程分析及其数值模拟[J].海洋预报,2002,19(1):113-122.
[18]张金善,李鑫,章卫胜.寒潮作用下渤海潮流场变异特征研究[C]//2008年风暴潮灾害防治及海堤工程技术研讨会.北京,2008:202-214.
[19]李燕,张彩凤,赵惠芳,等.大连地区寒潮强风天气的数值模拟研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(4):1893-1898.
[20]杨晓君,何金海,吕江津,等.对一次温带气旋引发渤海风暴潮过程的数值模拟[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(4):61-65.
[21]章卫胜,张金善,赵红军,等.黄骅港外航道寒潮风暴潮及大浪作用下泥沙骤淤数值模拟[J].中国港湾建设,2010(S1):32-37.
[22]郑国诞,赵红军,徐福敏,等.“98·04”寒潮影响下的渤海风浪场数值模拟[J].水运工程,2010(2):36-39.
[23]赵鹏.渤海寒潮风暴潮增水风险的数值研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[24]DIETRICH J CZULEMA M.WESTERINK J J.et al.Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrallycoupled,scalable computations[J].Coastal Engineering,2011,58(1):45-65.
[2]丁平兴,葛建忠.长江口横沙浅滩及邻近海域灾害性天气分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2013(4):72-78.
[3]徐秀芳,戴建华,尹红萍.近20年影响上海的寒潮特点[J].大气科学研究与应用,2009(1):73-80.
[4]陈华伟,葛建忠,丁平兴.波浪对台风风暴潮过程的影响分析[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4):16-25.
[5]赵长进,葛建忠,丁平兴.长江口及其邻近海区无结构网格风暴潮预报系统的研制与分析[J].海洋科学进展,2015(2):182-194.
[6]ZHAO C J,GE J Z,DING P X.Impact of sea level rise on storm surges around the Changjiang estuary[J].Journal of Coastal Rearch,2014,68:27-34.
[7]张金善,孔俊,章卫胜,等.长江河口动力与风暴潮相互作用研究[J].水利水运工程学报,2008(4):1-7.
[8]葛建忠,胡克林,丁平兴.风暴潮集成预报可视化系统设计及应用[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007(4):20-25.
[9]HANSEN W.Theoriezur Errechnuang des Wasserstancles und der Stromungen in randmeeren Nebst Anwendungen[J].Tellus,1956,8(3):287-300.
[10]HEAPS N S.Storm surges,1967-1982[J].Geophysical Journal International,1983,74(1):331-376.
[11]GERRITSEN H,DE VRIES H,PHILIPPART M.The Dutch continental shelf model[J].Coastal and estuarine studies,1995,47:425-467.
[12]秦曾灏,冯士筰.浅海风暴潮动力学机制的初步研究口].中国科学,1975,18(1),64-79.
[13]孙文心,冯士柞,秦曾灏.超浅海风暴潮的数值模拟(一):零阶模拟对渤海风潮的初步应用[J].海洋学报,1979,1(2):193-211.
[14]孙文心,秦曾灏,冯士筰.超浅海风暴潮的数值模拟(二):渤海风潮的一阶模型EJ].山东海洋学院学报,1980,10(2):7-19.
[15]王喜年.全球海洋的风暴潮灾害概况[J].海洋预报,1993,10(1):30-36.
[16]王喜年.关于温带风暴潮[J].海洋预报,2005,22(z1).17-23.
[17]于福江,王喜年,戴明瑞.影响连云港的几次显著温带风暴潮过程分析及其数值模拟[J].海洋预报,2002,19(1):113-122.
[18]张金善,李鑫,章卫胜.寒潮作用下渤海潮流场变异特征研究[C]//2008年风暴潮灾害防治及海堤工程技术研讨会.北京,2008:202-214.
[19]李燕,张彩凤,赵惠芳,等.大连地区寒潮强风天气的数值模拟研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(4):1893-1898.
[20]杨晓君,何金海,吕江津,等.对一次温带气旋引发渤海风暴潮过程的数值模拟[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(4):61-65.
[21]章卫胜,张金善,赵红军,等.黄骅港外航道寒潮风暴潮及大浪作用下泥沙骤淤数值模拟[J].中国港湾建设,2010(S1):32-37.
[22]郑国诞,赵红军,徐福敏,等.“98·04”寒潮影响下的渤海风浪场数值模拟[J].水运工程,2010(2):36-39.
[23]赵鹏.渤海寒潮风暴潮增水风险的数值研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[24]DIETRICH J CZULEMA M.WESTERINK J J.et al.Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrallycoupled,scalable computations[J].Coastal Engineering,2011,58(1):45-65.
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