基于物理机制的分布式水文模型对三峡区间径流的模拟
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摘要
基于物理机制的分布式水文模型是无水文资料区域的径流模拟的一种有效手段,在对模拟效果的评价中,区间流域水文资料的短缺成为限制条件。针对此问题,该文以三峡区间径流模拟的效果评价为实例,借助区间模拟入流对干流洪峰的模拟作用,对其进行分析和评价。基于三峡区间GBHM(geomorphology-based hydrological model)分布式水文模型,模拟1989~2000年期间的区间径流,为三峡库区河道的HEC-RAS(hydrologic engineering center-river analysissystem)洪水演进模型提供侧向入流资料。比较计入和不计入区间模拟径流2种情况下库区河道洪峰流量的模拟误差,分析GBHM水文模型对区间径流的模拟效果。结果表明:在库区河道洪峰中区间径流占50%的洪水场次中,基于GBHM模型模拟的区间径流,可使洪峰的模拟精度提高到90%以上。基于物理机制的分布式水文模型对三峡区间径流的模拟,具有明显的作用。
A physically-based distributed runoff model can simulate hydrological processes using weather data in a physically reasonable way,with less real-time hydrological data.However,in the poor gauged catchments,insufficient hydrological data hinders model evaluations.The Three Gorges Region was used as a case study to evaluate the effect of regional lateral inflows simulation on flood peak simulations in the mainstream.The regional runoff was simulated using a geomorphology-based hydrological model(GBHM) with the results fed into the hydrologic engineering center-river analysis system(HEC-RAS) flood routing model for the Three Gorges Reservoir.The simulation covered 12 years from 1989 to 2000(before the Three Gorges Project came into the operation in 2003).The effect of the distributed GBHM model on the flood simulations along the main stream of Yangtze River was evaluated by comparing the simulated runoff with and without regional lateral inflow.The results show that combining the runoff simulated by the GBHM into the HEC-RAS model significantly improved the flood simulations,especially for the lower part of the basin and for the major flood events.
A physically-based distributed runoff model can simulate hydrological processes using weather data in a physically reasonable way,with less real-time hydrological data.However,in the poor gauged catchments,insufficient hydrological data hinders model evaluations.The Three Gorges Region was used as a case study to evaluate the effect of regional lateral inflows simulation on flood peak simulations in the mainstream.The regional runoff was simulated using a geomorphology-based hydrological model(GBHM) with the results fed into the hydrologic engineering center-river analysis system(HEC-RAS) flood routing model for the Three Gorges Reservoir.The simulation covered 12 years from 1989 to 2000(before the Three Gorges Project came into the operation in 2003).The effect of the distributed GBHM model on the flood simulations along the main stream of Yangtze River was evaluated by comparing the simulated runoff with and without regional lateral inflow.The results show that combining the runoff simulated by the GBHM into the HEC-RAS model significantly improved the flood simulations,especially for the lower part of the basin and for the major flood events.
引文
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[20]清华大学水利水电工程系.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究[R].北京:清华清华大学水利水电工程系,2005.Depart ment of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University.Some Problems about Runoff,Sedi ment,Operation andSedi ment Mathematical Model Calibration after WaterStorage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Beijing:Depart ment of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
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[22]中国水利水电科学研究院.三峡水库蓄水前后库区泥沙原型观测成果分析[R].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2005.China Institute of Water Resources and HydropowerResearch.Sedi ment Prototype Measurement on the ThreeGorges Reservoir before and after Water Storage[R].Beijing:China Institute of Water Resources and HydropowerResearch,2005.(in Chinese)
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[24]Choudhury P.Multiple inflows muskingum routing model[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007,12(5):473-481.
[2]YU Fengling,CHEN Zhongyuan,REN Xianyou,et al.Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River,China:Characteristics and explanations[J].Geomorphology,2009,113:210-216.
[3]王佰伟,田富强,胡和平.三峡区间入流对三峡库区洪峰的影响分析[J].中国科学(E辑),2011,41(5).WANG Bai wei,TI ANFuqiang,HU Heping.Analysis of theeffect of regional lateral inflowon the flood peak of the ThreeGorges Reservoir[J].Science China Earth Sciences(Sciencein China Series D),2011,41(5).(in Chinese)
[4]XU Hongmei,Taylor R G,Kingston D G,et al.Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005:Acomparison of model parameterizations using station and griddedmeteorological observations[J].Quaternary International,2010,doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.11.037.
[5]H rmann G,K plin N,Cai Q,et al.Using a si mple modelas a tool to parameterise the SWAT model of the XiangxiRiver in China[J].Quaternary International,2009,doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2008.11.007.
[6]石朋,芮孝芳,瞿思敏,等.一个网格型松散结构分布式水文模型的构建[J].水科学进展,2008,19(5):662-670.SHI Peng,RUI Xiaofang,QU Si min,et al.Developmentand application of a grid-based distributed hydrological model[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(5):662-670.(inChinese)
[7]SHI Zhihua,CHEN Liding,FANG Nufang,et al.Researchon the SCS-CNinitial abstraction ratio using rainfall-runoffevent analysisin the Three Gorges Area,China[J].Catena,2009,77:1-7.
[8]SHAO Quanxi,WONG Heung,LI Ming,et al.Streamflowforecasting using functional-coefficient ti me series model withperiodic variation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,368:88-95.
[9]王船海,郭丽君,芮孝芳,等.三峡区间入库洪水实时预报系统研究[J].水科学进展,2003,14(6):677-681.WANG Chuanhai,GUO Lijun,RUI Xiaofang,et al.Studyon real-ti me flood forecasting system for the Three GorgesReservoir[J].Advances in Water Science,2003,14(6):677-681.(in Chinese)
[10]Hydrologic Engineering Center.Hydrologic reference manual[R].Davis,USA:US Army Corps of Engineering,2002.
[11]Hydrologic Engineering Center.HEC-RAS user s manual[R].Davis,USA:US Army Corps of Engineering,2006.
[12]YANG Dawen.Distributed Hydrologic Model Using HillslopeDiscretization Based on Catchment Area Function:Developmentand Applications[D].Tokyo,Japan:University of Tokyo,1998.
[13]许继军.分布式水文模型在长江流域的应用研究[D].北京:清华大学,2007.XUJijun.Application of a Disstributed Hydrological Modelto the Yangtze River Basin[D].Beijing:TsinghuaUniversity,2007.(in Chinese)
[14]XUJijun,YANG Dawen,CAI Zhiguo,et al.Regional floodmodelingin the Three Gorges of Yangtze River[C]//LI UZhiyu,YANG Dawen.Proceedings of the Internal Symposiumon Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment forI AHS-PUB.Beijing,China:I AHS Publication,1996:798-803.
[15]许继军,杨大文,蔡治国,等.基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证[J].水文,2008,28(1):32-37.XU Jijun,YANG Dawen,CAI Zhiguo,et al.Floodforecastingin the Three-Gorges Reach based on a distributedhydrological model(Ⅰ):Modeling and calibration[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(1):32-37.(in Chinese)
[16]许继军,杨大文,丁金华,等.空间嵌套式流域水文模型的初步研究——以三峡水库入库洪水预报为例[J].水利学报,2007,S10:365-371.XUJijun,YANG Dawen,DI NGJinhua,et al.Developmentof space-nested watershed hydrological model and itsapplication to floods forecasting of Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,S10:365-371.(in Chinese)
[17]DI NG Yihui.Monsoons over China[M].Boston,USA:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1994.
[18]ZHANG Qiang,JIANG Tong,Gemmer M,et al.Precipitation,temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in theYangtze Basin,China[J].Hydrological Sciences,2005,50(1):65-80.
[19]SU Buda,XI AO Bo,ZHU Deming,et al.Trends infrequency of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze RiverBasin,China:1960—2003[J].Hydrological Sciences,2005,50(3):479-492.
[20]清华大学水利水电工程系.三峡水库蓄水后水库、径流、泥沙、运行和水库泥沙数学模型验证等相关问题研究[R].北京:清华清华大学水利水电工程系,2005.Depart ment of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University.Some Problems about Runoff,Sedi ment,Operation andSedi ment Mathematical Model Calibration after WaterStorage of the Three Gorges Reservoir[R].Beijing:Depart ment of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,2005.(in Chinese)
[21]杨永德,刘炳衡.糙率变化过程的推算模型与长江三峡糙率探讨[J].人民长江,1991,22(12):9-15.YANG Yongde,LI U Bingheng.Esti mation model ofroughness change process and roughness of the Three Gorges[J].Yangtze River,1991,22(12):9-15.(in Chinese)
[22]中国水利水电科学研究院.三峡水库蓄水前后库区泥沙原型观测成果分析[R].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2005.China Institute of Water Resources and HydropowerResearch.Sedi ment Prototype Measurement on the ThreeGorges Reservoir before and after Water Storage[R].Beijing:China Institute of Water Resources and HydropowerResearch,2005.(in Chinese)
[23]长江科学院.向家坝及溪洛渡水库修建后三峡水库淤积一维数模计算报告[R].武汉:长江科学院,1998.Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute.One Di mensionNumerical Si mulation of the Three Gorges Sedi mentationafter the Construction of the Xiangjiaba Reservoir and theXiluodu Reservoir[R].Wuhan,China:Yangtze RiverScientific Research Institute,1998.(in Chinese)
[24]Choudhury P.Multiple inflows muskingum routing model[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007,12(5):473-481.
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