江苏省能源消费与经济增长的互动关系研究
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摘要
本文依据1985~2009年江苏省能源消费总量和GDP的统计数据,运用协整理论,格兰杰因果关系检验,并在建立VAR模型的基础上进行脉冲响应函数和方差分析,对能源消费与经济增长的互动关系进行定量分析。结果表明,江苏省能源消费与GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。为保持江苏省经济持续、快速、健康发展,必须运用各种措施,通过政策的有机组合实现能源消费与经济增长的协调发展。
Using the methods of co-integration analysis and Granger causality tests,on the basis of establishing VAR model on impulse response function and variance analysis,the paper quantitatively analyzes the interactive relationship between economic growth and energy consumption of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2009.The empirical results show that there is a stable causal relation between GDP and energy consumption in the long run.Energy consumption contributed to Jiangsu's economic growth.To maintain the sustaining,rapid and health development of the economy,Jiangsu province should take kinds of measures by which reasonably putting the combination of policies into practice step by step,which would achieve the proportionate and coordinated economic growth and energy consumption.
Using the methods of co-integration analysis and Granger causality tests,on the basis of establishing VAR model on impulse response function and variance analysis,the paper quantitatively analyzes the interactive relationship between economic growth and energy consumption of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2009.The empirical results show that there is a stable causal relation between GDP and energy consumption in the long run.Energy consumption contributed to Jiangsu's economic growth.To maintain the sustaining,rapid and health development of the economy,Jiangsu province should take kinds of measures by which reasonably putting the combination of policies into practice step by step,which would achieve the proportionate and coordinated economic growth and energy consumption.
引文
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2.Ali T.Akarca,Thomas Veach Long.Energy and em-ployment:a time-series analysis of the causal relationship[J].Resources and Energy,1979,2(2~3):151~162
3.Eden S.H.Yu,Been-Kwei Hwang.The relationshipbetween energy and GNP:Further results[J].Energy Eco-nomics,1984,6(3):186~190
4.Eden S.H.Yu,JAI-Young Choi.The Causal Rela-tionship between Electricity and GNP:An International Compari-son[J].Journal of Energy and Development,1985,10(2):249~272
5.Hondroyiannis G,Lolos S,Papapetrou E.Energy Con-sumption and Economic Growth:assessing the Evidence fromGreece[J].Energy Economics,2002,24(4):319~336
6.Wankeun Oha,Kihoon Leeb.Causal relationship be-tween energy consumption and GDP revisited:the case of Korea1970~1999[J].Energy Economics,2004,26(1):51~59
7.Jaruwan Chontanawata,Lester C.Huntb,RichardPierse.Does energy consumption cause economic growth:Evi-dence from a systematic study of over 100 countries[J].Journalof Policy Modeling,2008,30(2):209~220
8.杨宜勇,池振合.中国能源消费与经济增长关系研究———基于误差修正模型[J].经济与管理研究,2009,(9):39
9.王火根,沈利生.中国经济增长与能源消费关系研究———基于中国30省市面板数据的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2008,(3):125
10.刘宏杰.中国能源消费与经济增长之间的关系研究———以石油资源为例[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2007,(4):17
11.马超群,隼丰盛斌,李科,等.中国能源消费和经济增长的协整与误差修正模型研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(10):47~50
12.黄玲.福建能源消费与经济增长的实证关系研究[J].经济研究导刊,2007,(6):148
13.何秀萍,柯俊.内蒙古能源消费与经济增长发展关系实证研究[J].科学管理研究,2007,(4):118
14.Nelson C R,Plosser C I.Trends and Random Walksin Macroeconomic Time Series:Some Evidence and Implications[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,(2):139~162
15.李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005
16.Johansen S.Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1988,12(2~3):231~254
17.Engle R F,Yoo B S.Forecasting and Testing in Coin-tegrated Systems[J].Journal of Econometrics,1987,35(1):143~159
18.白万平.经济时间序列模型———方法与应用[M].北京:中国商务出版社,2005
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