江西省近46年蒸发皿蒸发量变化特征及其影响因素分析
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摘要
利用江西省79个常规气象站1960-2005年的观测资料,综合分析了蒸发皿年蒸发量的变化特征及其与相关环境因子包括日照百分率、云量、气温(日平均温度、日较差、最高温度、最低温度)、10m风速、饱和水汽压差、年降水量和相对湿度的相关关系,试图找出蒸发皿年蒸发量变化的主要原因。结果表明:(1)江西省西部及中部年蒸发量较小;南部及鄱阳湖周边地区年蒸发量较大。在过去46a中,蒸发皿年蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,其速率为-4.57mm/a;79站中,有68站蒸发皿年蒸发量下降趋势显著;(2)以日照百分率为代表的能量供给因子与蒸发皿年蒸发量的相关系数最大,其次为动力因子(10m风速),以相对湿度为代表的湿度因子相对较小,三者的完全相关系数分别为0.37、0.33、0.23;(3)空间上,整个江西省受日照百分率影响均比较大,风速、相对湿度对江西省的影响在鄱阳湖附近、西南部分地区更大,日照百分率、风速的降低以及相对湿度的增加导致了蒸发皿蒸发量的减小;(4)利用日照百分率、风速、相对湿度拟合的蒸发皿年蒸发量多元回归方程,能够反映该地区平均年蒸发量的情况,精度较高。
Based on the observational data of 79 meteorological stations in Jiangxi province from 1960 to 2005,the variation of annual pan evaporation and the relationships among other meteorological elements,including percentage of sunshine duration,cloud cover,temperature(diurnal temperature range,mean temperature,minimum temperature and maximum temperature included),wind speed at 10m above ground,saturation vapor pressure difference,annual precipitation and relative humidity,were analyzed.The results showed that the annual evaporation in west and center of Jiangxi province was less than in south and the Poyang Lake region.But in last 46 years,the annual pan evaporation decreased continuously at a rate of 4.57mm/y.68 stations showed decreasing of 79 stations.The correlation coefficient between annual pan evaporation and energy supply factor(the percentage of sunshine duration) was largest,followed by the dynamic factor(wind speed at 10m above ground) and the small one was the relative humidity.Their complete correlation coefficients were 0.37,0.33 and 0.23 under 0.05 significant levels.Jiangxi province was affected by the percentage of sunshine in general,but for the southwest and Poyang Lake nearby,it was affected more by the relative humidity and the wind speed.The decrease of pan evaporation resulted from the decline of sunshine percentage and wind speed as well as the increase of relative humidity.The multiple regression equation,established based on the percentage of sunshine,wind speed and relative humidity,could express the regional averaged annual pan evaporation with high precision.
Based on the observational data of 79 meteorological stations in Jiangxi province from 1960 to 2005,the variation of annual pan evaporation and the relationships among other meteorological elements,including percentage of sunshine duration,cloud cover,temperature(diurnal temperature range,mean temperature,minimum temperature and maximum temperature included),wind speed at 10m above ground,saturation vapor pressure difference,annual precipitation and relative humidity,were analyzed.The results showed that the annual evaporation in west and center of Jiangxi province was less than in south and the Poyang Lake region.But in last 46 years,the annual pan evaporation decreased continuously at a rate of 4.57mm/y.68 stations showed decreasing of 79 stations.The correlation coefficient between annual pan evaporation and energy supply factor(the percentage of sunshine duration) was largest,followed by the dynamic factor(wind speed at 10m above ground) and the small one was the relative humidity.Their complete correlation coefficients were 0.37,0.33 and 0.23 under 0.05 significant levels.Jiangxi province was affected by the percentage of sunshine in general,but for the southwest and Poyang Lake nearby,it was affected more by the relative humidity and the wind speed.The decrease of pan evaporation resulted from the decline of sunshine percentage and wind speed as well as the increase of relative humidity.The multiple regression equation,established based on the percentage of sunshine,wind speed and relative humidity,could express the regional averaged annual pan evaporation with high precision.
引文
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[14]郭华,姜彤,王国杰,等.1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(5):443-451.
[15]申双和,盛琼.45年来中国蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其成因[J].气象学报,2008,66(3):452-460.
[2]Brutsaert W,Parl M B.Hydrologic cycle explains the evapora-tion paradox[J].Nature,1998,396:30.
[3]Peterson TC,Golubev V S,Groisman P Y.Evaporation losingits strength[J].Nature,1995,377:687-688.
[4]Roderick ML,Farquhar G D.The cause of decreased pan evapo-ration over the past 50 years[J].Science,2002,298:1410-1411.
[5]Roderick M L,Rotstayn L D,Farquhar G D,et al.On the at-tribution of changing pan evaporation[J].Geophysical Re-search Letters,2007:34.
[6]左洪超,李栋梁,胡隐樵,等.近40a中国气候变化趋势及其同蒸发皿观测的蒸发量变化的关系[J].科学通报,2005,50(11):1125-1130.
[7]左洪超,鲍艳,张存杰,等.蒸发皿蒸发量的物理意义———近40年变化趋势的分析和数值试验研究[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(3):680-688.
[8]王艳君,姜彤,许崇育,等.长江流域1961-2000年蒸发量变化趋势研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(3):99-105.
[9]李春强,洪克勤,李保国.河北省近35年(1965-1999年)参考作物蒸散量的时空变化[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4):414-419.
[10]闵骞,刘影.鄱阳湖水面蒸发量的计算与变化趋势分析(1995-2004年)[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(5):452-457.
[11]杜筱玲,魏丽,黄少平,等.蒸发力估算及其在江西省农业水资源评估中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(3):161-164.
[12]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[13]刘波,马柱国,丁裕国.中国北方近45年蒸发变化的特征及与环境的关系[J].高原气象,2006,25(5):840-848.
[14]郭华,姜彤,王国杰,等.1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(5):443-451.
[15]申双和,盛琼.45年来中国蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其成因[J].气象学报,2008,66(3):452-460.
目录