基于PDSI的长江中下游地区干旱分布特征
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摘要
利用1961-2012年长江中下游地区90个测站逐日降水、气温等观测资料,建立长江中下游地区的帕默尔旱度模式,并利用此模式计算出52年90个测站逐月PDSI指数,与资料记载的实际旱涝灾情对比并分析了长江中下游地区的旱涝特征。结果表明,修正的帕默尔旱度模式能准确反映长江中下游地区的干旱过程,与实际旱涝发生时间、持续时段、旱涝严重程度及旱涝发生范围对应比较吻合,对旱涝的反应比较灵敏;长江中下游地区旱涝年际变化显著,夏、秋季旱涝具有连续性,干旱具有3个月的持续期;冬季存在较弱的年代际变化,而夏季年代际变化较为明显;长江中下游地区夏秋季干旱多发,极端干旱在秋季较多,安徽西部及北部、浙江北部、湖南西南部是干旱较容易发生的区域,而极端干旱多发生于安徽阜阳和宁国、湖南衡阳和郴州、浙江慈溪和定海以及湖北巴东等地。
To evaluate the ravages of a drought in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area,a farther modified Meteorological Drought Severity Model was developed based on the Palmer Drought Severity Model.The conventional precipitation and temperature data in 90 stations were used as basic data(1961-2012) to establish the Palmer drought index in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,with this modified index we have calculated the monthly drought index for 90 stations in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area,we compared with the situation of drought and waterlog recorded in documents and analyzed the characteristics of the drought and waterlog.It is found that the farther modified Palmer Drought Severity Model can reflect the severity of meteorological drought comparatively and be consistent with the actual onset time,duration time,the severity of droughts and floods and regions where droughts and floods occur,it is sensitive to droughts and flood;there is a marked interannual variation of drought in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area and the drought has duration of three months;Interdecadal variation is obvious in Summer while weaker in Winter;Drought often happened in west and north of Anhui,north of Zhejiang and northwest of Hunan in summer and autumn,extreme drought mostly happened in Fuyang,Ningguo,Hengyang,Chenzhou,Cixi,Dinghai and Badong in autumn.
To evaluate the ravages of a drought in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area,a farther modified Meteorological Drought Severity Model was developed based on the Palmer Drought Severity Model.The conventional precipitation and temperature data in 90 stations were used as basic data(1961-2012) to establish the Palmer drought index in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,with this modified index we have calculated the monthly drought index for 90 stations in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area,we compared with the situation of drought and waterlog recorded in documents and analyzed the characteristics of the drought and waterlog.It is found that the farther modified Palmer Drought Severity Model can reflect the severity of meteorological drought comparatively and be consistent with the actual onset time,duration time,the severity of droughts and floods and regions where droughts and floods occur,it is sensitive to droughts and flood;there is a marked interannual variation of drought in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area and the drought has duration of three months;Interdecadal variation is obvious in Summer while weaker in Winter;Drought often happened in west and north of Anhui,north of Zhejiang and northwest of Hunan in summer and autumn,extreme drought mostly happened in Fuyang,Ningguo,Hengyang,Chenzhou,Cixi,Dinghai and Badong in autumn.
引文
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Karl T R,Knight R W.1985.Atlas of monthly Palmer moisture anomally indices(1931-1983)for the contiguous United States[J].Historical Climatology Series,(3/9):319.
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Starosolszky O,Melder O M.1989.Hydrology of disasters[M].London:WMO.
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安顺清,邢久星.1985.修正的帕默尔干旱指数及其应用[J].气候分析与应用,1(1):17-19.An Shunqing,Xing Jiuxing.1985.The modified palmer drought severity Index and its application[J].J Climate Analysis Appl,1(1):17-19.
陈峰,袁玉江,魏文寿.等.2011.树轮记录的伊犁地区近354年帕尔默干早指数变化[J].高原气象,30(2):355-362.Chen Feng,Yuan Yujiang,Wei Wenshou,et al.2011.Variations of long-term Palmer Drought Index in recent 354 years in Yili based on tree-ring record[J].Plateau Meteor,30(2):355-362.
陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.1998.中国近45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,56(3):122-126.Chen Longxun,Zhu Wenqin,Wang Wen,et al.1998.Studies on climate change in China in recent 45 years[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,56(3):122-126.
陈豫英,陈楠.钱正安,等.2011.中蒙干旱半干旱区降水的时空变化特征(Ⅱ):综合气候分区及各分区降水周期变化的进一步分析[J].高原气象,30(1):13-21.Chen Yuying,Chen Nan,Qian Zheng'an,et al.2011.Temporal and spatial change features of precipitation over CMASA(Ⅱ):Synthetical climate subregions of the CMASA and further analyses of periodic change of precipitation in its various ones[J].Plateau Meteor,30(1):13-21.
段莹,王文,蔡晓军.2013.PDSI,SPEI及CI指数在2010/2011年冬.春季江淮流域干旱过程的应用分析[J].高原气象,32(4):1126-1139.Duan Ying,Wang Wen,Cai Xiaojun.2013.Applied analyses on Palmer,SPEI and CI Indices of drought process in Yangtze-Huaihe River basins during winter of2010/Spring of 2011[J].Plateau Meteor,32(4):1126-1139.Doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00106.
符淙斌.安芷生.郭维栋.2005.我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究(Ⅰ):主要研究成果[J].地球科学进展,20(11):1158-1168.Fu Congbin,An Zhisheng,Guo Weidong.2005.Evolution of life-supporting environment in our nation and the predictive study of aridification in Northern China(Ⅱ):Scientific innovations and its contribution to national demands[J].Adv Earth Sci,20(11):1157-1167.
郭安红,刘巍巍,安顺清,等.2008.基于改进失水模式和增加建模站点的Palmer旱度模式[J].应用气象学报,19(4):502-503.Guo Anhong,Liu Weiwei,An Shunqing,et al.2008.Modification of Palmer Drought Severity Model based on improving water loss pattern and increasing sample stations[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,19(4):502-503.
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