四川春玉米气象干旱致灾因子危险性
|
摘要
利用四川省1961-2014年147个地面气象站逐日观测资料与四川省春玉米观测资料,运用气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数,建立四川省春玉米生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性模型,研究了四川省春玉米播种-出苗期、拔节-孕穗期、抽雄开花-吐丝期、乳熟-完熟期及全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性空间分布特征.结果表明:春玉米需水关键期发生特、重、中、轻概率的空间分布不同;春玉米抽雄开花-吐丝期气象干旱致灾因子危险性较大,拔节-孕穗期次之,播种-出苗期较小;春玉米全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性盆西北至资阳北部较高,高原西南部河谷地带次之,盆地西南部、凉山州东北部较低.
Models for assessing disaster risks maize caused by meteorological drought for spring in different maize growing stages were established by using the 1961-2014 daily observation data from 147 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province and the observation data of Sichuan spring maize and by applying the evaluation index which can comprehensively evaluate the impact of meteorological drought on agriculture.Then the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed of drought-caused disasters during maize's sowing to seedling stage,jointing to booting stage,tasseling to flowering stage,milk to full-ripening stage and whole growing stage.The results indicated that the spatial distribution of probability was different when extreme,severe,moderate and light drought occurred in the critical growth stages of spring maize.The meteorological drought-causing risk factors were higher in spring maize's tasseling to flowering stage,and the risk in the jointing to booting stage was second,and that in the sowing to seedling stage was lower.During the whole growing stage of spring maize,the risks from meteorological drought in the northwestern part of Sichuan Basin to the north of Ziyang was the highest,and lower at the river valley of the southwest western Sichuan Plateau,the risks in southwestern Sichuan Basin and northeastern Liangshan was the lowest.
Models for assessing disaster risks maize caused by meteorological drought for spring in different maize growing stages were established by using the 1961-2014 daily observation data from 147 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province and the observation data of Sichuan spring maize and by applying the evaluation index which can comprehensively evaluate the impact of meteorological drought on agriculture.Then the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed of drought-caused disasters during maize's sowing to seedling stage,jointing to booting stage,tasseling to flowering stage,milk to full-ripening stage and whole growing stage.The results indicated that the spatial distribution of probability was different when extreme,severe,moderate and light drought occurred in the critical growth stages of spring maize.The meteorological drought-causing risk factors were higher in spring maize's tasseling to flowering stage,and the risk in the jointing to booting stage was second,and that in the sowing to seedling stage was lower.During the whole growing stage of spring maize,the risks from meteorological drought in the northwestern part of Sichuan Basin to the north of Ziyang was the highest,and lower at the river valley of the southwest western Sichuan Plateau,the risks in southwestern Sichuan Basin and northeastern Liangshan was the lowest.
引文
[1]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-17.
[2]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.
[3]田玉刚,覃东华,杜渊会.洞庭湖地区洪水灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2 01 1,26(3):56-60.
[4]李洁,宁大同,程红光,等.基于3s技术的十旱灾害评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(1):49-52.
[5]张洪玲,宋丽华,刘赫男,等.黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):623-629.
[6]魏建波,赵文吉,关鸿亮,等.基于GIS的区域干旱灾害风险区划研究:以武陵山片区为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):1 98-204.
[7]罗培.基于GIS的重庆市十旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):100-104.
[8]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007:237-244.
[9]赵俊晔,张峭,赵思健.中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(4):705-714.
[10]李红英,张晓煜,王静,等.基于CI指数的宁夏干旱致灾因子特征指标分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(4):995-1001.
[11]高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[12]杨秋珍,徐明,李军.对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨[J].气象学报,2010,68(2):277-284.
[13]林晓梅,岳耀杰,苏箔.中国冬小麦霜冻灾害致灾因子危险度评价:基于作物生育阶段气象指标[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):45-50.
[14]朱琳,王万瑞,任宗启,等.陕北仁用杏的花期霜冻气候风险分析及区划[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(2):49-51.
[15]袁淑杰,王婷,王鹏.四川省水稻气候干旱灾害风险研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):1036-1043.
[16]朱红蕊,于宏敏,姚俊英,等.黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害致灾因子危险性分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(2):96-99.
[17]薄燕飞,白建军,刘永林.基于TVDI及气象干旱指数的河北省春旱时空变化特征[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(4):188-195.
[18]刘永红,李茂松.四川季节性干旱与农业防控节水技术研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:1-163.
[19]秦鹏程,刘敏,万素琴,等.气象干旱综合监测指数在湖北的本地化应用及其适用性分析[J].气象科技,20 14,42(2):341-347.
[20]张红丽,张强,刘骞,等.中国干旱状况的时空分布特征及影响因素[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(41:484-49 1.
[21]霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,等.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(6):692-703.
[22]秦吉,张翼鹏.现代统计信息分析技术在安全工程方面的应用:层次分析法原理[J].工业安全与防尘,1999,25(5):44-48.
[2]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.
[3]田玉刚,覃东华,杜渊会.洞庭湖地区洪水灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2 01 1,26(3):56-60.
[4]李洁,宁大同,程红光,等.基于3s技术的十旱灾害评估研究进展[J].中国农业气象,2005,26(1):49-52.
[5]张洪玲,宋丽华,刘赫男,等.黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):623-629.
[6]魏建波,赵文吉,关鸿亮,等.基于GIS的区域干旱灾害风险区划研究:以武陵山片区为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):1 98-204.
[7]罗培.基于GIS的重庆市十旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):100-104.
[8]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007:237-244.
[9]赵俊晔,张峭,赵思健.中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(4):705-714.
[10]李红英,张晓煜,王静,等.基于CI指数的宁夏干旱致灾因子特征指标分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(4):995-1001.
[11]高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[12]杨秋珍,徐明,李军.对气象致灾因子危险度诊断方法的探讨[J].气象学报,2010,68(2):277-284.
[13]林晓梅,岳耀杰,苏箔.中国冬小麦霜冻灾害致灾因子危险度评价:基于作物生育阶段气象指标[J].灾害学,2009,24(4):45-50.
[14]朱琳,王万瑞,任宗启,等.陕北仁用杏的花期霜冻气候风险分析及区划[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(2):49-51.
[15]袁淑杰,王婷,王鹏.四川省水稻气候干旱灾害风险研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):1036-1043.
[16]朱红蕊,于宏敏,姚俊英,等.黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害致灾因子危险性分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(2):96-99.
[17]薄燕飞,白建军,刘永林.基于TVDI及气象干旱指数的河北省春旱时空变化特征[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(4):188-195.
[18]刘永红,李茂松.四川季节性干旱与农业防控节水技术研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:1-163.
[19]秦鹏程,刘敏,万素琴,等.气象干旱综合监测指数在湖北的本地化应用及其适用性分析[J].气象科技,20 14,42(2):341-347.
[20]张红丽,张强,刘骞,等.中国干旱状况的时空分布特征及影响因素[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(41:484-49 1.
[21]霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,等.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(6):692-703.
[22]秦吉,张翼鹏.现代统计信息分析技术在安全工程方面的应用:层次分析法原理[J].工业安全与防尘,1999,25(5):44-48.
目录