城市化对安徽省极端气温事件的影响
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摘要
利用卫星遥感资料对安徽省46个台站进行分类,统计分析了城市站、郊区站和乡村站1961—2010年的极端气温指数的年和季节的变化趋势及其受城市化的影响和贡献。结果表明:1)近50年来,除最高气温年极大值外,其他气温年极值都有明显上升趋势,以最低温度极小值最显著;暖日、暖夜天数呈增加趋势,而冷日、冷夜天数呈减少趋势,其中暖夜和冷夜变化趋势更明显;各极端指数的变化趋势总体均表现为城市站较乡村站更显著,郊区站介于两者之间。2)城市站最高气温极大值、最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值因城市化造成的增温分别为0.144、0.184和0.161℃/10a,增温贡献率分别达100.0%、58.8%和21.6%,但城市化对最高气温极小值影响较弱;季节尺度的城市化影响基本都造成增温,春、秋季更明显,而增温贡献率以春、夏季更明显,冬季最小或不显著。3)城市化效应使暖日和暖夜天数增加、冷夜天数减少的趋势更加显著,城市化影响贡献率都在40%以上;暖日、暖夜和冷夜天数的城市化影响贡献率都在冬季最小或不显著。
Using daily temperature data of 46 stations in Anhui province with satellite-based station classification during 1961-2010,annual and seasonal trends of both absolute and relative extreme temperature indices were analyzed.Furthermore,urbanization effects and contributions were also evaluated.The annual maximum of daily maximum temperature(maxT_(max)) presented insignificant trends,while the annual minimum of daily maximum temperature(minT_(max)),the annual maximum and minimum of daily minimum temperature(maxT_(min) and minT_(min))showed remarkable increasing trends,especially minT_(min).Both warm days and nights presented significantly increasing trends,while cold days and nights showed decreasing trends,however,trends for warm and cold nights were relatively larger.Trends of extreme temperature indices for urban stations were generally more significant than those for rural stations.Urbanization effects had led to a highly significantly increase of maxT_(max),maxT_(min)and minT_(min) at rates of 0.144,0.184,and 0.161℃ per decade,with contributions of 100%,58.8%,and 21.6%,respectively.However,there was no significant urbanization effect for minT_(max).Seasonal urbanization effect generally led to increasing trends for absolute extreme indices,which were larger in spring and autumn,while contributions in spring and summer.Urbanization effects induced more significant increasing trends on warm days and nights,and more significant decreasing trends on cold nights,with contributions all above 40%.Contributions for all relative extreme indices were the smallest or insignificant in winter.
Using daily temperature data of 46 stations in Anhui province with satellite-based station classification during 1961-2010,annual and seasonal trends of both absolute and relative extreme temperature indices were analyzed.Furthermore,urbanization effects and contributions were also evaluated.The annual maximum of daily maximum temperature(maxT_(max)) presented insignificant trends,while the annual minimum of daily maximum temperature(minT_(max)),the annual maximum and minimum of daily minimum temperature(maxT_(min) and minT_(min))showed remarkable increasing trends,especially minT_(min).Both warm days and nights presented significantly increasing trends,while cold days and nights showed decreasing trends,however,trends for warm and cold nights were relatively larger.Trends of extreme temperature indices for urban stations were generally more significant than those for rural stations.Urbanization effects had led to a highly significantly increase of maxT_(max),maxT_(min)and minT_(min) at rates of 0.144,0.184,and 0.161℃ per decade,with contributions of 100%,58.8%,and 21.6%,respectively.However,there was no significant urbanization effect for minT_(max).Seasonal urbanization effect generally led to increasing trends for absolute extreme indices,which were larger in spring and autumn,while contributions in spring and summer.Urbanization effects induced more significant increasing trends on warm days and nights,and more significant decreasing trends on cold nights,with contributions all above 40%.Contributions for all relative extreme indices were the smallest or insignificant in winter.
引文
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[34]石涛,杨元建,蒋跃林,等.城市热岛强度变化对安徽省气温序列的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(6):779-788
[35]黄丹青,钱永甫.极端温度事件区域性的分析方法及其结果[J].南京大学学报,2009,45(6):715—723
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[37]Zhang X,Gabriele H,Francis W Z,et al.Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes[J].J Clim,2005,18:1641-1651
[38]Bonsal BR,Zhang X,Vincent L,et al.Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada[J].J Clim,2001,14:1959-1976
[39]李娇,任国玉,战云健.浅谈极端气温事件研究中闽值确定方法[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(5):36-40
[40]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术嗍.北京:气象出版社,2007
[2]任春燕,吴殿廷,董锁成.西北地区城市化对城市气候环境的影响[J].地理研究,2006,25(2):233-241
[3]赵娜,刘树华,虞海燕.近48年城市化发展对北京区域气候的影响分析[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):373-385
[4]赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.城市热岛对未来气候变化有影响吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(6]:469-472
[5]吴婕,徐影,师字.华南地区城市化对区域气候变化的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(6):654-662
[6]方锋,白虎志,赵红岩,等.中国西北地区城市化效应及其在增暖中的贡献率[J].高原气象,2007,26:579-585
[7]Li Q,Zhang H,Liu X,et al.Urban heat island effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2004,79:165-174
[8]Li Q X,Li W,Si P,et al.Assessment of surface air warming in Northeast China,with emphasis on the impacts of urbanization[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2010,99:469-478
[9]周雅清,任国玉.华北地区地表气温观测中城镇化影响的检测和订正[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):743—753
[10]Ren G Y,Chu Z Y,Chen Z H,et al.Implications of temporal change in urban heat island intensity observed at Beijing and Wuhan stations[J].Geophys Res Lett,2007,34:L05711
[11]Ren G Y,Zhou Y Q,Chu Z Y,et al Urbanization effects on observed surface air temperature trends in North China[J],J Clim,2008,21:1333-1348
[12]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区最高、最低气温和日较差变化趋势的影响[J].高原气象,2009,28(5):1158-1166
[13]Peterson T C.Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperature in the contiguous United States:no difference found[J].J Clim,2003,16:2941-2959
[14]任国玉,张爱英,初子莹,等.我国地面气温参考站点遴选的依据、原则和方法[J].气象科技,2010,38(1):78-85
[15]Ren YY,Ren GY.A remote-sensing method of selecting reference stations for evaluating urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends[J].J Clim,2011,24:3179-3189
[16]杨元建,石涛,苟尚培,等.基于遥感资料研究合肥城市化对气温的影响[J].气象,2011,37(11):1423-1430
[17]Yang Y J,Wu B W,Shi C E,et al.Impacts of urbanization and stationrelocation on surface air temperature series in Anhui province[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2013,170:1969-1983
[18]Li YB,Shi T,Yang Y J,era/.Satellite-based investigation and evaluation of the observational environment of meteorological stations in Anhui province,China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2015,172(6):1735-1749
[19]初子莹,任国玉.北京地区城市热岛强度变化对区域温度序列的影响[J].气象学报,2005,63(4):534-540
[20]Kalnay E,Cai M.Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate[J].Nature,2003,423:528-531
[21]杨续超,张镱锂,刘林山,等.中国地表气温变化对土地利用/覆被类型的敏感性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2009,36:638-646
[22]孙敏,汤剑平,许春艳.中国东部地区城市化及土地用途改变对区域温度的影响[J].南京大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47:679-691
[23]陈静林,杜尧东,孙卫国.城市化进程对珠江三角洲地区气温变化的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(2):123-131
[24]唐红玉,翟盘茂,王振字.1951—2002年中国平均最高、最低气温及日较差变化[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):728-735
[25]陈正洪,王海军,任国玉,等.湖北省城市热岛强度变化对区域气温序列的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):771-779
[26]谢志清,杜银,曾燕,等.长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响[J].地理学报,2007,62(7):717-727
[27]Jones P D,Lister D H,Li Q.Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature records,with an emphasis on China[J].J Geophys Res,2008,113:D16122
[28]华丽娟,马柱国,曾昭美.中国东部地区大城市和小城镇极端温度及日较差变化对比分析[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):80-92
[29]张雷,任国玉,刘江,等.城市化对北京气象站极端气温指数趋势变化的影响[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(5):1150-1159
[30]王君,严中伟,李珍,刘伟东,王迎春.近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J].科学通报,2013,58(33):3464-3470
[31]Zhou Y,Ren G Y.Change in extreme temperature event frequency over mainland China.1961-2008[J].Climate Res,2011,50:125-139
[32]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589—1598
[33]Ren G Y,Zhou YQ.Urbanization effect on trends of extreme temperature indices of national stations over mainland China,1961-2008[J].J Clim,2014,27:2340-2360
[34]石涛,杨元建,蒋跃林,等.城市热岛强度变化对安徽省气温序列的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(6):779-788
[35]黄丹青,钱永甫.极端温度事件区域性的分析方法及其结果[J].南京大学学报,2009,45(6):715—723
[36]Zhai P,Pan X H.Trends in temperature extremes during 1951-1999 in China[J].Geophys Res Lett,2003,30(17):1913-1916
[37]Zhang X,Gabriele H,Francis W Z,et al.Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes[J].J Clim,2005,18:1641-1651
[38]Bonsal BR,Zhang X,Vincent L,et al.Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada[J].J Clim,2001,14:1959-1976
[39]李娇,任国玉,战云健.浅谈极端气温事件研究中闽值确定方法[J].气象科技进展,2013,3(5):36-40
[40]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术嗍.北京:气象出版社,2007
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