上海市崇明县肺癌发病和死亡变化趋势分析
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摘要
目的了解上海市崇明县肺癌发病及死亡的变化趋势,并根据现有发病数据预测今后肺癌发病趋势。方法收集崇明县1998—2013年肺癌发病和死亡数据及人口数据,分别计算粗发病率和死亡率、年龄别发病率和死亡率、世界人口标化发病率和死亡率以及年度变化百分比(APC)以描述年度变化趋势。结果 1998—2013年崇明县肺癌发病7 275例,粗发病率为81.33/10万,男性、女性分别为122.36/10万、41.20/10万,男性明显高于女性。1998—2013年男性肺癌发病APC为1.70%,女性为4.97%;男、女标化的发病率均出现减缓趋势,女性发病增长速度高于男性,65岁以上老年人群发病增长速度高于青中年。1998—2013年崇明县肺癌死亡6 102例,粗死亡率为68.22/10万,男性、女性分别为103.91/10万、33.30/10万,男性明显高于女性。1998—2013年男性肺癌死亡APC为2.01%,女性为4.54%,女性死亡增长速度高于男性,65岁以上老年人群女性死亡增长速度高于男性。结论崇明县肺癌粗发病率的增高主要受人口老龄化的影响,采取及时有效的预防措施将有助于降低崇明县肺癌的发病率和死亡率。
Objective To investigate the variation trend of the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in rural areas of Shanghai and to predict the incidence trend of lung cancer thereof in future according to existing data.Methods The data of lung cancer incidence and mortality as well as the demographic data in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013 were collected.The crude incidence rate and mortality data,age-specific incidence rate and mortality data,standardized incidence and mortality of he world population,the annual percentage change(APC) were calculated to analyze the annual variation trend of the incidence and mortality thereof.Results There were 7 275 new lung cancer cases in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013.The crude incidence thereof was 81.33/10~5,of which 122.36/10~5 was for males and 41.20/10~5 was for females,with the crude incidence thereof for males being significantly higher than that for females.From 1998 to 2013,the APC of lung cancer incidence was 1.70% for males,and 4.97% for females.The standardized incidence thereof for both males and females tended to slow down.The growth rate of the incidence thereof for females was higher than that for males.The growth rate of the incidence thereof for the elderly population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the young and middle-aged population groups.There were 6 102 death cases of lung cancer in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013.The crude mortality rate thereof was 68.22/10~5,with 103.91/10~5 applicable for males and 33.30/10~5 applicable for females,which indicated that the crude mortality rate thereof for males was significantly higher than that for females.From 1998 to 2013,the APC for the mortality rate of lung cancer was 2.01% for males and 4.54% for females.The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for females was higher than that for males.The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for the elderly female population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the elderly male population group of the same age range.Conclusion The increase of the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Chongming County can mainly be attributed to the aging of the population.Timely and effective preventive measures therefor will help to reduce the incidence and mortality rates thereof in this area.
Objective To investigate the variation trend of the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in rural areas of Shanghai and to predict the incidence trend of lung cancer thereof in future according to existing data.Methods The data of lung cancer incidence and mortality as well as the demographic data in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013 were collected.The crude incidence rate and mortality data,age-specific incidence rate and mortality data,standardized incidence and mortality of he world population,the annual percentage change(APC) were calculated to analyze the annual variation trend of the incidence and mortality thereof.Results There were 7 275 new lung cancer cases in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013.The crude incidence thereof was 81.33/10~5,of which 122.36/10~5 was for males and 41.20/10~5 was for females,with the crude incidence thereof for males being significantly higher than that for females.From 1998 to 2013,the APC of lung cancer incidence was 1.70% for males,and 4.97% for females.The standardized incidence thereof for both males and females tended to slow down.The growth rate of the incidence thereof for females was higher than that for males.The growth rate of the incidence thereof for the elderly population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the young and middle-aged population groups.There were 6 102 death cases of lung cancer in Chongming County from 1998 to 2013.The crude mortality rate thereof was 68.22/10~5,with 103.91/10~5 applicable for males and 33.30/10~5 applicable for females,which indicated that the crude mortality rate thereof for males was significantly higher than that for females.From 1998 to 2013,the APC for the mortality rate of lung cancer was 2.01% for males and 4.54% for females.The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for females was higher than that for males.The growth rate of the mortality rate thereof for the elderly female population group aged 65 or above was higher than that for the elderly male population group of the same age range.Conclusion The increase of the crude incidence rate of lung cancer in Chongming County can mainly be attributed to the aging of the population.Timely and effective preventive measures therefor will help to reduce the incidence and mortality rates thereof in this area.
引文
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[10]上海市疾病预防控制中心.2013年上海市慢性病及其危险因素监测报告[R].2014:14.
[11]王瑞娟,王萍,张建中.非吸烟者肺癌的流行病学、病因学和分子生物学特点[J].国际呼吸杂志,2009,29(16):1007-1010.
[12]李树贵,张笑亭,张丽萍.女性肺癌的发病危险因素分析[J].中国实验诊断学,201l,15(10):1767-1769.
[13]BARNOYA J.GLANTZ S.Association of the California tobacco control program with declines in lung cancer incidence[J].Cancer Causes Control,2004,15(7):689-695.
[14]JEMAL A,THUN M J,RIES L A,et al.Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer,1975-2005,featuring trends in lung cancer,tobacco use and tobacco control[J].J Natl Cancer Inst,2008,100(23):1672-1694.
[2]上海市疾病预防控制中心.2014年上海市恶性肿瘤报告[R].2014:50-73.
[3]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海市崇明县疾病预防控制中心.2008年上海市崇明县恶性肿瘤报告[R].2008:63.68.
[4]NATIONAL CANCER INSITUTE.Joinpoint Regression Program Version 3.5.1.[CP].2011.Statistical Research and Applications Branch,
[5]KIM H J,FAY M P.FEUER E J,et al.Permutation tests for join point regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Stat Med,2000,19(3):335-351.
[6]李为希,周洁,张芬,等.2002-2012年上海市闵行区肺癌发病及死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2016,25(7):514-518.
[7]郑莹,吴春晓,鲍萍萍,等.上海市肺癌的流行情况和时间趋势[J].诊断学理论与实践,2006,5(2):126-130.
[8]INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RESEARCH ON CANCER.IARC monographson the Tobacco Smoke and Involuntary Smoking(83)[M].Lyon:IARC press,2004.
[9]邹小农,姜晶梅,刘伯齐,等.中国城乡居民吸烟与肺癌死亡的年龄关系研究[J].中国流行病学杂志,2009,30(9):907-910.
[10]上海市疾病预防控制中心.2013年上海市慢性病及其危险因素监测报告[R].2014:14.
[11]王瑞娟,王萍,张建中.非吸烟者肺癌的流行病学、病因学和分子生物学特点[J].国际呼吸杂志,2009,29(16):1007-1010.
[12]李树贵,张笑亭,张丽萍.女性肺癌的发病危险因素分析[J].中国实验诊断学,201l,15(10):1767-1769.
[13]BARNOYA J.GLANTZ S.Association of the California tobacco control program with declines in lung cancer incidence[J].Cancer Causes Control,2004,15(7):689-695.
[14]JEMAL A,THUN M J,RIES L A,et al.Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer,1975-2005,featuring trends in lung cancer,tobacco use and tobacco control[J].J Natl Cancer Inst,2008,100(23):1672-1694.
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