A trend fixed on firstly and seasonal adjustment model combined with the ε

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• 作者：Jianzhou Wang ; Wenjin Zhu ; Wenyu Zhang ; Donghuai Sun
• 关键词：Trend fixed on firstly ; Seasonal adjustment ; ε ; -SVR
• 刊名：Energy Policy
• 出版年：2009
• 出版时间：November 2009
• 年：2009
• 卷：37
• 期：11
• 页码：4901-4909
• 全文大小：420 K

文摘

Short-term electricity demand forecasting has always been an essential instrument in power system planning and operation by which an electric utility plans and dispatches loading so as to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, derived from the accuracy of demand forecasting and the forecasting algorithm used, will determines the economic of the power system operation as well as the stability of the whole society. This paper presents a combined ε-SVR model considering seasonal proportions based on development tendencies from history data. We use one-order moving averages to produce a comparatively smooth data series, taking the averaging period as the interval that can effectively eliminate the seasonal variation. We used the smoothed data series as the training set input for the ε-SVR model and obtained the corresponding forecasting value. Afterward, we accounted for the previously removed seasonal variation. As a case, we forecast northeast electricity demand of China using the new method. We demonstrated that this simple procedure has very satisfactory overall performance by an analysis of variance with relative verification and validation. Significant reductions in forecast errors were achieved.