Occurrence probability assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides with Newmark displacement values and logistic regression: The Wenchuan earthquake, China

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Ying Wang^a ; ^b ; ; Chongzhen Song^a ; ^b ; Qigen Lin^a ; ^b ; Juan Li^a
• 关键词：Newmark displacement ; Logistic regression ; Wenchuan earthquake ; China
• 刊名：Geomorphology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：1 April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：258
• 期：Complete
• 页码：108-119
• 全文大小：2603 K

文摘

The Newmark displacement model has been used to predict earthquake-triggered landslides. Logistic regression (LR) is also a common landslide hazard assessment method. We combined the Newmark displacement model and LR and applied them to Wenchuan County and Beichuan County in China, which were affected by the M_s. 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, to develop a mechanism-based landslide occurrence probability model and improve the predictive accuracy. A total of 1904 landslide sites in Wenchuan County and 3800 random non-landslide sites were selected as the training dataset. We applied the Newmark model and obtained the distribution of permanent displacement (D_n) for a 30 × 30 m grid. Four factors (D_n, topographic relief, and distances to drainages and roads) were used as independent variables for LR. Then, a combined model was obtained, with an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.797 for Wenchuan County. A total of 617 landslide sites and non-landslide sites in Beichuan County were used as a validation dataset with AUC = 0.753. The proposed method may also be applied to earthquake-induced landslides in other regions.