Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks

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• 作者：Rü ; diger Bachmann^a ; ^b ; ^c ; Eric R. Sims^b ; ^d ; ^{esims1@nd.edu}
• 刊名：Journal of Monetary Economics
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：April, 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：59
• 期：3
• 页码：235-249
• 全文大小：408 K

文摘

Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, but is critical during recessions. Spending shocks during downturns predict productivity improvements through a persistent increase in government investment relative to consumption, which is reflected in higher confidence.