Modeling the Probability of Arsenic in Groundwater in New England as a Tool for Exposure Assessment
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- 作者：Joseph D. Ayotte ; Bernard T. Nolan ; John R. Nuckols ; Kenneth P. Cantor ; Gilpin R. Robinson ; Jr. ; Dalsu Baris ; Laura Hayes ; Margaret Karagas ; William Bress ; Debra T. Silverman ; and Jay H. Lubin
- 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
- 出版年：2006
- 出版时间：June 1, 2006
- 年：2006
- 卷：40
- 期：11
- 页码：3578 - 3585
- 全文大小：408K
- 年卷期：v.40,no.11(June 1, 2006)
- ISSN：1520-5851
文摘
We developed a process-based model to predict theprobability of arsenic exceeding 5 
g/L in drinking waterwells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is beingused for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic studyof bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that mayexplain increased bladder cancer risk is elevatedconcentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. Ineastern New England, 20-30% of private wells exceed thearsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms perliter. Our predictive model significantly improves theunderstanding of factors associated with arseniccontamination in New England. Specific rock types, higharsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemicalfactors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundationand proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologicand landscape variables relating to groundwater residencetime increase the probability of arsenic occurrence ingroundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic inbedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenicalpesticide use. Variables representing historic agriculturalinputs do not improve the model, indicating that this sourcedoes not significantly contribute to current arsenicconcentrations. Due to the complexity of the fracturedbedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and relatedvariables also are not significant predictors.
g/L in drinking waterwells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is beingused for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic studyof bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that mayexplain increased bladder cancer risk is elevatedconcentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. Ineastern New England, 20-30% of private wells exceed thearsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms perliter. Our predictive model significantly improves theunderstanding of factors associated with arseniccontamination in New England. Specific rock types, higharsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemicalfactors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundationand proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologicand landscape variables relating to groundwater residencetime increase the probability of arsenic occurrence ingroundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic inbedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenicalpesticide use. Variables representing historic agriculturalinputs do not improve the model, indicating that this sourcedoes not significantly contribute to current arsenicconcentrations. Due to the complexity of the fracturedbedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and relatedvariables also are not significant predictors.