Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain, China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province

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• 作者：Jiquan Zhang ; Norio Okada ; Hirokazu Tatano and Seiji Hayakawa
• 关键词：agro ; meteorological hazards ; drought ; waterlogging ; cool summer ; risk identification ; damage evaluation ; maize
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2004
• 出版时间：January, 2004
• 年：2004
• 卷：31
• 期：1
• 页码：209-232
• 全文大小：332.3 KB

文摘

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55 % of seasons, of which 14 % was caused by drought, 30 % by waterlogging, 4 % by cool summer and drought, 9 % by cool summer and waterlogging, 13 % by drought and waterlogging, 30 % by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.