Quantitative risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals leakage and application

详细信息	查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

• 作者：Hu Si^a ; ^b ; ^{sihu@cqu.edu.cn} ; Hong Ji^a ; ^b ; Xiaohong Zeng^b
• 关键词：Quantitative risk assessment ; Risk identification ; Influence range ; Probability calculation ; Loss calculation ; Acceptable risk level
• 刊名：Safety Science
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：155_09257535
• 类别：et
• 出版时间：August, 2012
• 卷：50
• 期：7
• 页码：1452-1461
• 文件大小：516 K

摘要

The hazardous chemical accidents remain a matter of major concern. However, there is a dearth of practical measures about the emergency management of hazardous chemicals leakage. Therefore, in order to provide more accurate management plan, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue in chemical industry. The main aim of this study is to quantify the risk of hazardous chemicals leakage, and take precautions against the accidents. In this study, a Fire-Explosion-Poisoning Quantitative Probability Model (FEPQPM) has been established. The paper introduced the probability analysis methods to analyze derivative accidents caused by hazardous chemicals leakage, established quantitative risk assessment models, and made acceptable risk level analysis. This model has been applied to quantitatively assess an enterprise鈥檚 storage tank at Changshou Chemical Industrial Distripark (CID) in Chongqing, China. Evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the CID. It is shown that the probability of poisoning is very large, causing more economic loss than the other two types of accidents, and death toll of leakage accident increases over time, resulting in greater economic losses. The risk level of leakage accident involving poisoning is unacceptable.