鈥淧ancPro鈥?as a tool for selecting families eligible for pancreatic cancer screening: An Italian study of incident cases

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• 作者：Giulia Leonardi^a ; ^{giulialeonardi@alice.it} ; Santino Marchi^a ; Massimo Falconi^c ; Alessandro Zerbi^d ; Valeria Ussia^a ; Nicola de Bortoli^a ; Franco Mosca^e ; Silvano Presciuttini^b ; Marco Del Chiaro^f ; ^g
• 关键词：Familial risk ; Pancreatic cancer ; Screening
• 刊名：Digestive and Liver Disease
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：79_15908658
• 类别：med
• 出版时间：July, 2012
• 卷：44
• 期：7
• 页码：585-588
• 文件大小：216 K

摘要

Background

PancPRO is a computer program that estimates the risk of pancreatic cancer for asymptomatic individuals based on a genetic model of susceptibility and the familial incidence of cancer.

Aim

To evaluate the distribution of the familial risk in a series of incident cases of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Materials and methods

The lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer was calculated by PancPro for a hypothetical 40-year-old son of 570 consecutive probands with pancreatic cancer.

Results

The 570 risk values were included between 1%and 13%. The distribution was bimodal, with the antimode located at risk = 7.5%. Considering a 10-fold risk over the general population as a threshold for including a subject in a surveillance program, 19 families (3.3%) would be selected, totalling 92 first-degree relatives with age >40 years.

Conclusions

PancPro is a valid instrument to rank families based on risk of pancreatic cancer.