Heterogeneous beliefs and adaptive behaviour in a continuous-time asset price model
- 作者：Xue-Zhong He ; tony.he1@uts.edu.au ; Kai Li kai.li@uts.edu.au
- 关键词：Heterogeneous beliefs ; Bounded rationality ; Adaptiveness ; Fundamentalists ; Chartists ; Stability ; Stochastic delay differential equations
- 刊名：Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
- 出版年：2012
- 期刊代码：37_01651889
- 类别：eco
- 出版时间：July, 2012
- 卷：36
- 期：7
- 页码：973-987
- 文件大小：1698 K
摘要
This paper extends the analysis of the seminal work of on heterogeneous beliefs and rational routes to randomness in discrete-time models to a continuous-time model of asset pricing. The resulting model characterised mathematically by a system of stochastic delay differential equations provides a unified approach to deal with adaptive behaviour of heterogeneous agents and market stability impact of lagged price used by chartists to form their expectations. For the underlying deterministic model, we show not only that the result of Brock and Hommes on rational routes to market instability in discrete-time holds in continuous-time but also a double edged effect of an increase in lagged price used by the chartists on market stability. For the stochastic model, we demonstrate that the interaction and boundedly rational behaviour of heterogeneous agents can generate various market phenomena such as bubbles and crashes and replicate stylised facts including volatility clustering, and long range dependence in volatility.