Inflation dynamics and real marginal costs: New evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

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• 作者：Ivan Petrella^a ; ^{i.petrella@bbk.ac.uk} ; ; Emiliano Santoro^b ; ^c ; ^{emiliano.santoro@unicatt.it} ;
• 关键词：New Keynesian Phillips curve ; Aggregation ; Sectoral data ; Intermediate goods
• 刊名：Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：37_01651889
• 类别：eco
• 出版时间：May, 2012
• 卷：36
• 期：5
• 页码：779-794
• 文件大小：591 K

摘要

This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation (see, e.g., ). We challenge this evidence, showing that forward-looking behavior as implied by the New Keynesian model of price-setting is widely supported at the sectoral level. In fact, current and expected future values of the income share of intermediate goods emerge as an effective driver of inflation dynamics. Unlike alternative proxies for the forcing variable, the cost of intermediate goods presents dynamic properties in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian theory.