Predicting the identity and fate of plant invaders: emergent and emerging approaches
- 作者：Mack ; Richard N.
- 关键词：invasions ; naturalizations ; climate-matching ; weeds ; alien plants
- 刊名：Biological Conservation
- 出版年：1996
- 期刊代码：13_00063207
- 类别：env
- 出版时间：October 11, 1996
- 卷：78
- 期：1-2
- 页码：107-121
- 文件大小：1.85 M
摘要
Prediction of the potential for plant species to invade new ranges has long attracted the attention of ecologists motivated by both fundamental and practical considerations. Consequently, a conceptually diverse array of correlative and experimental approaches have been developed to predict the identity and fate of future invaders. The most straightforward approach has long involved simply compiling lists of species known to be aggressive either in their native range or a new range. Although these lists can be encyclopedic, they often fail to include species that have yet to become aggressive anywhere. As a result, much effort has been devoted instead to searching for commonality in the ecological traits of invading species as a predictive tool. Success in using such distillations is hampered by the emphasis on the traits of ruderals, despite the ability of non-ruderals to become naturalized, and the frequent inability to decipher which traits contribute to a species' naturalization from those that are merely coincidental with naturalization. The intuitively-appealing approach of identifying a region's future invaders among species that are aggressive in regions with a similar climate (‘climatic-matching’) fails to account for the often quite different biotic restrictions among regions with similar climates. A fourth correlative tool, predictions of an alien species' future distribution and prominence based on its initial rate of spread, is handicapped by our lack of comprehensive knowledge on the areal patterns and temporal course that invasions may follow. In contrast to these correlative tools, prediction has also been sought by determining the constraints of the physical environment on alien species in controlled-growth facilities and glasshouses. Although such facilities certainly provide instructive results, potential interactions between and among factors, especially biotic factors, are difficult to simulate. Three other experimental approaches offer a higher rate of prediction: simultaneous field comparisons between congeners (e.g. one naturalized, one native), and following the fate of a species deliberately sown in a natural community beyond its current range, with or without environmental manipulation. Evaluation of the efficacy of these last three approaches awaits their wider application. Although the experimental approaches hold greater promise, none is a panacea. Prediction will be the highest when several approaches are combined simultaneously (e.g. manipulating the environment for congeners in the field).