The dynamics of UK and US inflation expectations

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• 作者：Deborah Gefang^a ; ^{d.gefang@lancaster.ac.uk} ; Gary Koop^b ; ^{Gary.Koop@strath.ac.uk} ; Simon M. Potter^c ; ^{simon.potter@ny.frb.org}
• 关键词：Bayesian ; Smoothly mixing regressions model ; Inflation pass through
• 刊名：Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
• 出版年：2012
• 期刊代码：19_01679473
• 类别：cp
• 出版时间：November, 2012
• 卷：56
• 期：11
• 页码：3120-3133
• 文件大小：685 K

摘要

The relationship between short term and long term inflation expectations in the US聽and the UK聽is investigated with a focus on inflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows for the uncovering of the relationship between inflation pass through and various explanatory variables. Empirical results are related to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country are anchored or unmoored inflation expectations found. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, empirical findings are not consistent with the specific model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a broader view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.