Study on the Permissible Input of Total Phosphorus in LakesBased on the Theory of Blind Number

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• 作者：Tang aipingWan jinbaoLan xinyi
• 会议时间：2009-11-01
• 关键词：uncertainty ; blind number ; confidence level ; total phosphorus ; Dillion mode
• 作者单位：Tang aiping(The Key Lad. Of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, School of Environmental and Ehemical Engineering, Nanchang University, 330029; School of Environmental and Ehemical Engineering, Nanchang Hangkong University, 330063)Wan jinbao(The Key Lad. Of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, School of Environmental and Ehemical Engineering, Nanchang University, 330029)Lan xinyi(The Key Lad. Of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization, School of Environmenta)
• 母体文献：第十三届世界湖泊大会论文集
• 会议名称：第十三届世界湖泊大会
• 会议地点：武汉
• 主办单位：中国环境科学学会
• 语种：chi

摘要

The water environment is a system with many uncertainties and requires the method of uncertainty when carrying out related research.Based on the dynamics of river hydrology and water quality,the uncertainty and incompleteness characteristics of monitoring information and frequency,each parameter in the model of Dillion was managed by using the theory of blind number and blind number mean.This paper probes into the study of the permissible input of total phosphorus of Poyang Lake in Jiangxi and the credible level calculation.With this method,not only can the unascertained expected value of the permissible input of total phosphorus be calculated,but also its subjective reliability can be obtained on the basis of the rules of four fundamental operations of blind numbers.It indicates that this method adapts to hydrology and water quality practical situation.