基于社会网络分析的世界天然气贸易格局演化
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摘要
基于2007—2014年世界天然气贸易数据,利用社会网络分析方法研究了世界管道天然气和液化天然气贸易的网络密度、中心性和聚类系数等指标。结果表明:第一,世界天然气贸易网络密度总体很低,但液化天然气的网络密度要明显大于管道天然气的网络密度;第二,天然气主要贸易节点国家有俄罗斯、土库曼斯坦、挪威、日本、韩国、意大利以及中国等,且中国对世界天然气贸易的影响力正在快速上升;第三,世界液化天然气贸易网络的聚类系数在不断上升,而管道天然气的聚类系数则在下降,这说明液化天然气贸易的区域性特征得到了强化;第四,网络结构图显示世界液化天然气贸易网络演化速度快于管道天然气。未来,随着页岩气革命以及美国能源独立影响的进一步加深,世界液化天然气贸易的活跃程度将会进一步提高,其贸易网络密度和聚类系数也会进一步提升。
Based on world gas trade data during the period of 2007~2014,this article analyzes the network density,centrality and clustering coefficient of the trade of the world's pipeline natural gas(PNG) and liquefied natural gas(LNG) by using the social network analysis method.The results show that:firstly,the global natural gas trade network is low in density,but the network density of LNG is obviously higher than that of PNG;secondly,the main trading node countries are Russia,Turkmenistan,Norway,Japan,Korea,Italy and China.China's influence on the world's natural gas trade is rapidly increasing in recent years;thirdly,the clustering coefficient of LNG trade network is constantly increasing while that of PNG is declining,which reflects that the regional trade characteristics of LNG has been strengthened;fourthly,the trade network chart shows that the world's LNG trade network is evolving faster than that of PNG.In the future,with the influence of shale gas revolution and American energy independence,the world's LNG trade will be further activated,and its global trade network density as well as clustering coefficient will be further enhanced.
Based on world gas trade data during the period of 2007~2014,this article analyzes the network density,centrality and clustering coefficient of the trade of the world's pipeline natural gas(PNG) and liquefied natural gas(LNG) by using the social network analysis method.The results show that:firstly,the global natural gas trade network is low in density,but the network density of LNG is obviously higher than that of PNG;secondly,the main trading node countries are Russia,Turkmenistan,Norway,Japan,Korea,Italy and China.China's influence on the world's natural gas trade is rapidly increasing in recent years;thirdly,the clustering coefficient of LNG trade network is constantly increasing while that of PNG is declining,which reflects that the regional trade characteristics of LNG has been strengthened;fourthly,the trade network chart shows that the world's LNG trade network is evolving faster than that of PNG.In the future,with the influence of shale gas revolution and American energy independence,the world's LNG trade will be further activated,and its global trade network density as well as clustering coefficient will be further enhanced.
引文
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[2]Amy Myers Jaffe.The Americas,Not the Middle East,Will Be the World Capital of Energy[J].Foreign Policy,2011(188):86-87.
[3]Philip K.,Verleger Jr.The Amazing Tale of U.S.Energy Independence[J].The International Economy,2012.
[4]高安荣,田楠.世界液化天然气的发展趋势[J].中外能源,2009,14(3):1-5.
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[6]王龙林.页岩气革命及其对全球能源地缘政治的影响[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2014(3):35-40
[7]曹嘉涵.美国液化天然气出口前景与中国[J].现代国际关系,2013(6):56-62.
[8]候明扬.美国页岩油气资源发展的影响与启示[J].改革与战略,2014,30(6):123-128
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[12]陈银飞.2000—2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):31-42
[13]郝晓晴,安海忠,陈玉荣,等.基于复杂网络的国际铁矿石贸易演变规律研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(1):92-97
[14]徐斌.国际铁矿石贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):123-129
[15]孙晓晴,杨玉英,吴登生.全球原油贸易网络拓扑结构与演化特征识别[J].世界经济研究,2012(9):11-17
[16]刘建.基于社会网络的国际原油贸易格局演化研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(12):48-57.
[17]程淑佳,王肇钧.复杂网络理论下世界原油贸易空间格局演进研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1 342-1 348.
[18]肖建忠,彭莹,王小林.天然气国际贸易网络演化及区域特征研究——基于社会网络分析方法[J].中国石油大学学报:社会科学版,2013(3):1-8.
[19]White H C.Where Do Markets Come From?[J].Advances in Strategic Management,1981,87(3):517-547.
[20]Burt R S.Structural Hole:The Social Structure of Competition[M].Explorations in Economic Sociology,1993.
[21]刘军.整体网分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2014.
[22]Watts D J,Strogatz S H.Collective Dynamics of Small-world Networks[J].Nature,1998(393):440-442.
(1)需要指出的是,由于一些国家之间管道天然气或液化天然气贸易量小于1亿m3,因而没有被BP世界能源统计资料收录。因此1亿m3以下的天然气贸易关系就被略去了,这在一定程度上会影响本文中天然气贸易国家数量。
[2]Amy Myers Jaffe.The Americas,Not the Middle East,Will Be the World Capital of Energy[J].Foreign Policy,2011(188):86-87.
[3]Philip K.,Verleger Jr.The Amazing Tale of U.S.Energy Independence[J].The International Economy,2012.
[4]高安荣,田楠.世界液化天然气的发展趋势[J].中外能源,2009,14(3):1-5.
[5]张抗,周芳.世界天然气格局的变化和中国的机遇[J].中外能源,2010,15(3):1-3.
[6]王龙林.页岩气革命及其对全球能源地缘政治的影响[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2014(3):35-40
[7]曹嘉涵.美国液化天然气出口前景与中国[J].现代国际关系,2013(6):56-62.
[8]候明扬.美国页岩油气资源发展的影响与启示[J].改革与战略,2014,30(6):123-128
[9]Neumann A,Viehrig N,Weigt H.Intragas-A Stylized Model of the European Natural Gas Network[J].Resource Markets,2009(4):1-18.
[10]Serrano M A,Boguna M.Topology of the world Trade Web[J].Physical Review,2003(68):15-31.
[11]Li X,Jin Y Y,Chen G R.Complexity and Synchronization of the World Trade Web[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2003(328):287-296.
[12]陈银飞.2000—2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):31-42
[13]郝晓晴,安海忠,陈玉荣,等.基于复杂网络的国际铁矿石贸易演变规律研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(1):92-97
[14]徐斌.国际铁矿石贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):123-129
[15]孙晓晴,杨玉英,吴登生.全球原油贸易网络拓扑结构与演化特征识别[J].世界经济研究,2012(9):11-17
[16]刘建.基于社会网络的国际原油贸易格局演化研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(12):48-57.
[17]程淑佳,王肇钧.复杂网络理论下世界原油贸易空间格局演进研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1 342-1 348.
[18]肖建忠,彭莹,王小林.天然气国际贸易网络演化及区域特征研究——基于社会网络分析方法[J].中国石油大学学报:社会科学版,2013(3):1-8.
[19]White H C.Where Do Markets Come From?[J].Advances in Strategic Management,1981,87(3):517-547.
[20]Burt R S.Structural Hole:The Social Structure of Competition[M].Explorations in Economic Sociology,1993.
[21]刘军.整体网分析[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2014.
[22]Watts D J,Strogatz S H.Collective Dynamics of Small-world Networks[J].Nature,1998(393):440-442.
(1)需要指出的是,由于一些国家之间管道天然气或液化天然气贸易量小于1亿m3,因而没有被BP世界能源统计资料收录。因此1亿m3以下的天然气贸易关系就被略去了,这在一定程度上会影响本文中天然气贸易国家数量。