1965—2015年海河流域干旱时空变化特征分析
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摘要
基于海河流域1965—2015年月降水和气温数据,利用标准化降水蒸发指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)、Mann-Kendall检验和经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)分析等方法,分析海河流域干旱时空特征。结果表明:1)就时间变化来看,年、春、夏季SPEI序列呈干旱化趋势,秋季呈湿润化趋势,仅夏季干旱变化通过了0.05显著性检验。年、季干旱发生频率表明春旱显著,各年代干旱站次比表明近51年来干旱范围有所增加。2)就空间变化来看,中等干旱在年、夏季集中于永定河系的东部、大清河系及北三河系,春、秋季集中于滦河河系、大清河系及漳卫河系的西部;轻度干旱在年、春、夏季集中于滦河河系、北三河系、大清河系,秋季集中于永定河系、子牙河系及漳卫河系。年、春、夏季在流域范围内呈干旱化趋势,秋季在永定河系、大清河系、北三河系及滦河河系呈湿润化趋势。3)就空间模态来看,近51年来海河流域第一模态的年、季主要时空分布型为全流域一致型,第二模态的年、夏、秋季主要时空分布型为南部—北部反向分布型,春季呈西北部—东南部反向分布型。
Based on the data of monthly precipitation and monthly temperature from 1965 to 2015 in Haihe River Basin,the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Haihe River Basin are analyzed by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), Mann-Kendall test and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis. The results indicated that: 1) In terms of temporal variation, SPEI at scales of year, spring and summer showed the same trend of drought, whereas SPEI in autumn showed a trend of wetting. Only the variation of SPEI in summer showed significance at 0.05 level. The frequency of annual and seasonal drought indicated a significant drought in spring. The ratio of drought in different decades indicated that the drought range has increased in recent 51 years. 2) From the view of spatial variation, moderate drought was concentrated in the east of the Yongding River system, the Daqing River system and the Beisan River system at scales of year and summer, and occurred mainly in the Luanhe River system, the Daqing River system and west of the Zhangwei River system in spring and autumn. Mild drought was focused on the Luanhe River system, the Beisan River system and the Daqing River system at scales of year, spring and summer, and on the Yongding River system, the Ziya River system and the Zhangwei River system in autumn. The whole basin showed a trend of drought at scales of year, spring and summer. In autumn, the Yongding River system, the Daqing River system, the Beisan River system and the Luanhe River system showed a trend of wetting. 3) In terms of spatial modes, the primary spatiotemporal distribution type of the first mode at the annual and seasonal scale of the Haihe River Basin in recent 51 years is the consistent type of the whole basin; the second mode is the reverse distribution type in the south-north part at the annual scale and in summer and autumn, and the reverse distribution type in the northwest-southeast part in spring.
Based on the data of monthly precipitation and monthly temperature from 1965 to 2015 in Haihe River Basin,the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Haihe River Basin are analyzed by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), Mann-Kendall test and Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis. The results indicated that: 1) In terms of temporal variation, SPEI at scales of year, spring and summer showed the same trend of drought, whereas SPEI in autumn showed a trend of wetting. Only the variation of SPEI in summer showed significance at 0.05 level. The frequency of annual and seasonal drought indicated a significant drought in spring. The ratio of drought in different decades indicated that the drought range has increased in recent 51 years. 2) From the view of spatial variation, moderate drought was concentrated in the east of the Yongding River system, the Daqing River system and the Beisan River system at scales of year and summer, and occurred mainly in the Luanhe River system, the Daqing River system and west of the Zhangwei River system in spring and autumn. Mild drought was focused on the Luanhe River system, the Beisan River system and the Daqing River system at scales of year, spring and summer, and on the Yongding River system, the Ziya River system and the Zhangwei River system in autumn. The whole basin showed a trend of drought at scales of year, spring and summer. In autumn, the Yongding River system, the Daqing River system, the Beisan River system and the Luanhe River system showed a trend of wetting. 3) In terms of spatial modes, the primary spatiotemporal distribution type of the first mode at the annual and seasonal scale of the Haihe River Basin in recent 51 years is the consistent type of the whole basin; the second mode is the reverse distribution type in the south-north part at the annual scale and in summer and autumn, and the reverse distribution type in the northwest-southeast part in spring.
引文
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[22]张仙娥,冯成洪,黄蓓蓓,等.海河流域分水系河系污染特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):47-51.Zhang X E,Feng C H,Huang B B,et al.Pollution characteristics of water system and river system in Haihe Basin[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2016,35(11):47-51.
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[28]Von-Storch H,Zwiers F W.Statistical analysis in climate research[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1999,27(3):3-10.
[29]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.基于标准化降水指数的陕西省干旱时空变化特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(17):113-119.Li B,Xie J C,Hu Y H,et al.Analysis on spatiotemporal variability characteristics of drought in Shaanxi Province using standardized precipitation index[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(17):113-119.
[30]徐晶,林建,姚学祥,等.七大江河流域面雨量计算方法及应用[J].气象,2001,27(11):13-16.Xu J,Lin J,Yao X X,et al.Calculating method of area rainfall over seven river valleys and its application[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(11):13-16.
[31]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.辽宁省大雨以上降水日数分布与趋势分析[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(8):1052-1060.Cao Y Q,Liu J J,Gao L.Distribution and trend analysis of heavy precipitation days in Liaoning Province[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(8):1052-1060.
[32]张明军,李瑞雪,贾文雄,等.中国天山山区潜在蒸发量的时空变化[J].地理学报,2009,64(7):798-806.Zhang M J,Li R X,Jia W X,et al.Temporal and spatial changes of potential evaporation in Tianshan Mountains from 1960 to2006[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2009,64(7):798-806.
[33]刘艳艳,张勃,张耀宗,等.1960年至2005年河西干旱区的日照时数变化时空特征分析:以黑河上游地区为例[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1581-1586.Liu Y Y,Zhang B,Zhang Y Z,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of sunshine duration change in Hexi arid region:A case study of Heihe river valley in the middle region of Hexi Corridor[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9):1581-1586.
[34]杨永辉,任丹丹,杨艳敏,等.海河流域水资源演变与驱动机制[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(10):1443-1453.Yang Y H,Ren D D,Yang Y M,et al.Advances in clarification of the driving forces of water shortage in Haihe River Catchment[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(10):1443-1453.
[35]Zhao A Z,Zhang A B,Cao S,et al.Responses of vegetation productivity to multi-scale drought in Loess Plateau,China[J].Catena,2018,163:165-171.
[2]Marcos-Garcia P,Lopez-Nicolas A,Pulido-Velazquez M.Combined use of relative drought indices to analyze climate change impact on meteorological and hydrological droughts in a Mediterranean basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,554:292-305.
[3]Park S,Im J,Jang E,et al.Drought assessment and monitoring through blending of multi-sensor indices using machine learning approaches for different climate regions[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2016,216:157-169.
[4]Chen Z H,Yang G F.Analysis of drought hazards in North China:distribution and interpretation[J].Natural Hazards,2013,65(1):279-294.
[5]Jiang C,Mu X M,Wang F,et al.Analysis of extreme temperature events in the Qinling Mountains and surrounding area during1960-2012[J].Quaternary International,2016,392(4):155-167.
[6]赵安周,刘宪锋,朱秀芳,等.1965-2013年黄土高原地区极端气温趋势变化及空间差异[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):639-652.Zhao A Z,Liu X F,Zhu X F,et al.Trend variations and spatial difference of extreme air temperature events in the Loess Plateau from 1965 to 2013[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):639-652.
[7]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(6):124-132.Hu Q,Dong B,Pan X B,et al.Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate over period of 1961-2014in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(6):124-132.
[8]李立新,严登华,秦天玲,等.海河流域1961-2010年干旱化特征及其变化趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(11):61-67.Li L X,Yan D H,Qin T L,et al.Drought variation in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(11):61-67.
[9]Guo E,Liu X,Zhang J,et al.Assessing spatiotemporal variation of drought and its impact on maize yield in Northeast China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,553:231-247.
[10]张宁,李宝富,徐彤彤,等.1960-2012年全球胡杨分布区干旱指数时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):121-126.Zhang N,Li B F,Xu T T,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of drought index in Populus euphratica global distribution area during the past 50 years(1960-2012)[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(7):121-126.
[11]王兆礼,李军,黄泽勤,等.基于改进帕默尔干旱指数的中国气象干旱时空演变分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(2):161-168.Wang Z L,Li J,Huang Z Q,et al.Spatiotemporal variations analysis of meteorological drought in China based on scPDSI[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(2):161-168.
[12]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.Che S J,Li C Q,Shen S H.Analysis of drought-flood spatialtemporal characteristics based on Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in Heibei Province during 1965-2005[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):137-143.
[13]Zuo D P,Cai S Y,Xu Z X,et al.Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2018,131:1-14.
[14]季定民.不同气象干旱指标在甘肃省的应用分析[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2015.Ji D M.Analysis of Applicability of Different Meteorological Drought Index in Gansu Province[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2015.
[15]王文静,延军平,刘永林,等.基于综合气象干旱指数的海河流域干旱特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(2):336-344.Wang W J,Yan J P,Liu Y L,et al.Characteristics of droughts in the Haihe Basin based on meteorological drought composite index[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(2):336-344.
[16]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,López-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[17]Li Z,Zhou T,Zhao X,et al.Assessments of drought impacts on vegetation in China with the optimal time scales of the climatic drought index[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2015,12(7):7615-7634.
[18]Vicente-Serrano S M,Gouveia C,Camarero J J,et al.Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013,110(1):52-57.
[19]严小林,张建云,鲍振鑫,等.海河流域农业干旱演变情势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(3):221-225.Yan X L,Zhang J Y,Bao Z X,et al.Analysis of evoluation of agricultural drought in Haihe River Basin[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2016,27(3):221-225.
[20]He J,Yang X H,Li J Q,et al.Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin,China[J].Natural Hazards,2015,75(2):199-217.
[21]宗燕,王艳君,翟建青.海河流域气象干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(12):198-202.Zong Y,Wang Y J,Zhai J Q.Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in the Haihe River Basin based on standardized precipitation index[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(12):198-202.
[22]张仙娥,冯成洪,黄蓓蓓,等.海河流域分水系河系污染特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2016,35(11):47-51.Zhang X E,Feng C H,Huang B B,et al.Pollution characteristics of water system and river system in Haihe Basin[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2016,35(11):47-51.
[23]Thornthwaite C W.An approach toward a rational classification of climate[J].Geographical Review,1948,38(1):55-94.
[24]中华人民共和国国家标准GB/T 20481-2006.气象干旱等级[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2006.National Standard of People’s Republic of China GB/T 20481-2006.The Grade of Meteorological Drought[M].Beijing:China Standard Press,2006.
[25]Yu Y S,Zou S,Whittemore D.Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas[J].Journal of Hydrology,1993,150(1):61-80.
[26]Lorenz E N.Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction(Science Report No 1)[R].Cambridge:Department of Meteorology,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,1956.
[27]Hannachi A,Jolliffe I T,Stephenson D B.Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science:Areview[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,27(9):1119-1152.
[28]Von-Storch H,Zwiers F W.Statistical analysis in climate research[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1999,27(3):3-10.
[29]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.基于标准化降水指数的陕西省干旱时空变化特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(17):113-119.Li B,Xie J C,Hu Y H,et al.Analysis on spatiotemporal variability characteristics of drought in Shaanxi Province using standardized precipitation index[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(17):113-119.
[30]徐晶,林建,姚学祥,等.七大江河流域面雨量计算方法及应用[J].气象,2001,27(11):13-16.Xu J,Lin J,Yao X X,et al.Calculating method of area rainfall over seven river valleys and its application[J].Meteorological Monthly,2001,27(11):13-16.
[31]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.辽宁省大雨以上降水日数分布与趋势分析[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(8):1052-1060.Cao Y Q,Liu J J,Gao L.Distribution and trend analysis of heavy precipitation days in Liaoning Province[J].Progress in Geography,2015,34(8):1052-1060.
[32]张明军,李瑞雪,贾文雄,等.中国天山山区潜在蒸发量的时空变化[J].地理学报,2009,64(7):798-806.Zhang M J,Li R X,Jia W X,et al.Temporal and spatial changes of potential evaporation in Tianshan Mountains from 1960 to2006[J].Acta Geographic Sinica,2009,64(7):798-806.
[33]刘艳艳,张勃,张耀宗,等.1960年至2005年河西干旱区的日照时数变化时空特征分析:以黑河上游地区为例[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1581-1586.Liu Y Y,Zhang B,Zhang Y Z,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of sunshine duration change in Hexi arid region:A case study of Heihe river valley in the middle region of Hexi Corridor[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9):1581-1586.
[34]杨永辉,任丹丹,杨艳敏,等.海河流域水资源演变与驱动机制[J].中国生态农业学报,2018,26(10):1443-1453.Yang Y H,Ren D D,Yang Y M,et al.Advances in clarification of the driving forces of water shortage in Haihe River Catchment[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2018,26(10):1443-1453.
[35]Zhao A Z,Zhang A B,Cao S,et al.Responses of vegetation productivity to multi-scale drought in Loess Plateau,China[J].Catena,2018,163:165-171.
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