中国跨越中等收入陷阱潜力研究——专利技术视角
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摘要
当前,中国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期,国家创新能力不足将导致经济增速停滞或倒退,即陷入中等收入陷阱。为研究跨越陷阱路径,在Keun Lee理论的基础上,通过分析中日韩等国家及地区近30年来在美国专利商标局申请专利的技术循环周期后发现,中国已跨越短技术循环周期拐点,正迈向长技术循环周期,表明中国已具备跨越中等收入陷阱的能力。引入人均GDP、全球创新指数、全要素生产率等指标进一步验证得出一致结论。最后,提出提升和永续保障中国创新能力的建议。
At present,China is in the juncture of changing the mode of development,optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum.The juncture means that it is possible to be stagnation or retrogression of national economy as the national innovation ability is insufficient,then sticking in the middle-income trap(MIC)for a long time.To avoid this trap,this paper calculates and compares patents' technology cycle time(TCT),based on Keun Lee theory,of China,Japan,South Korea and other countries and regions from data base of the U.S.Patent and Trademark Office in recent 30 years.Combining the TCT with the GDP per capita,the paper concludes that China has crossed short TCT's point,and moving toward long TCT at present,which indicates that China has the capability to avoid the MIC.Then introduces the index of per capita GDP,global innovation index(GII)and TFP as further tests and draws a consistent conclusion.Finally,suggestions for enhancing and sustainability of China's innovation capability are put forward.
At present,China is in the juncture of changing the mode of development,optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum.The juncture means that it is possible to be stagnation or retrogression of national economy as the national innovation ability is insufficient,then sticking in the middle-income trap(MIC)for a long time.To avoid this trap,this paper calculates and compares patents' technology cycle time(TCT),based on Keun Lee theory,of China,Japan,South Korea and other countries and regions from data base of the U.S.Patent and Trademark Office in recent 30 years.Combining the TCT with the GDP per capita,the paper concludes that China has crossed short TCT's point,and moving toward long TCT at present,which indicates that China has the capability to avoid the MIC.Then introduces the index of per capita GDP,global innovation index(GII)and TFP as further tests and draws a consistent conclusion.Finally,suggestions for enhancing and sustainability of China's innovation capability are put forward.
引文
[1]AUN PORN MONIROTH.The East Asian economic development report[R].Washington D.C:World Bank,2006.
[2]FERNANDO GABRIEL IM.Middle-income traps.a conceptual and empirical survey[R].Washington D.C:World Bank,2013.
[3]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013(9):17-29.
[4]李扬.借鉴国际经验应对“中等收入陷阱”的挑战[J].拉丁美洲研究,2011,33(3):5-6.
[5]HOMI KHARAS.What is the middle income trap,why do countries fall into it,and how can it be avoided[J].Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,2011,3(3):281-289.
[6]权衡,罗海蓉.“中等收入陷阱”命题与争论:一个文献研究的视角[J].学术月刊,2013(45):86-96.
[7]林志帆.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?---基于增长收敛模型的识别方法[J].世界经济研究,2014(11):10-15.
[8]周文,赵果庆,徐波.中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对---基于地区收入差距视角[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(1):26-38.
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[10]徐永慧,李月.跨越中等收入陷阱中全要素生产率的作用及比较[J].世界经济研究,2017(2):88-97.
[11]蔡昉.中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):56-71.
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[13]郭金兴,胡映.典型地区跨越中等收入陷阱的比较研究[J].亚太经济,2016(5):84-91.
[14]王丽莉,文一.中国能跨越中等收入陷阱吗?---基于工业化路径的跨国比较[J].经济评论,2017(1):31-69.
[15]魏礼群.中国未来经济转型升级的方向与路径[J].全球化,2016(12):5-9.
[16]毛海涛,宋建,刘刚.跨越“中等收入陷阱”的竞争优势新视角---从离散的“产品空间”到连续的“策略空间”[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016,37(4):52-59.
[17]央视网.习近平出席亚太经合组织领导人同工商咨询理事会代表对话会[EB/OL].(2014-11-10)[2016-11-10].http://news.cntv.cn/2014/11/10/VIDE14156179162521 99.shtml.
[18]AYSE OZTURK.Examining the economic growth and the middle-income trap from the perspective of the middle class[J].International Business Review,2016,25:726-738.
[19]姜文辉.产业升级、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”---东亚和东南亚经济体的经验与教训[J].亚太经济,2016(6):92-98.
[20]KEUN LEE.Schumpeterian analysis of economic catchup:knowledge,path creation,and the Middle-income Trap[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[21]王伟光,余景年,彭莉.中国工业机器人产业技术研究---专利地图视角[J].科技进步与对策,2017,34(7):55-61.
[22]FRANCIS NARIN,MARK P CARPENTER,PATRICIAWOOLF.Technological performance assessment based on patents and patent citations[J].IEEE Trans.Eng.Manage,1984,EM-31(4):172-184.
[23]JAFFE,ADAM,TRAJTENBERG.Patents,citation,and innovations:a window on the knowledge economy[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,2002.
[24]黄鲁成,蔡爽.基于专利的技术跃迁实证研究[J].科研管理,2009,30(2):64-69.
[25]KEUN LEE.Smart specialization with short-cycle technologies and implementation strategies to avoid target and design failures[M].Advances in the Theory and Practice of Smart Specialization,2017:201-224.
[26]KEUN LEE,FRANCO MALERBA.Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership:windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems[J].Research Policy,2017,46:338-351.
[27]FABIO LANDINI,KEUN LEE,FABIO LANDINI.Ahistory-friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch-up by latecomers[J].Research Policy,2017,46:431-446.
[28]EICHENGREEN B D PARK,K SHIN.Growth slowdowns redux:new evidence on the middle-income traps[R].NO.w18673,National Bureau of Economic Research,2013.
[29]李月,周密.跨越中等收入陷阱研究的文献综述[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012(9):64-72.
[30]樊继达.韩国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[N].学习时报,2012-07-23.
[31]GILL,HOMI KHARAS.An East Asian renaissance:ideas for economic growth[R].Washington,DC:World Bank,2007.
[32]WORLD BANK.Avoiding middle-income growth traps[R].Washington D.C.,2012.
[33]KEUN LEE,KIM.IPR and technological catch-up in Korea[M].Oxford University Press,2010.
[34]HIROYUKI ODAGIRI,ATSUSHI SUNAMI,RICH-ARD NELSON.Intellectual property rights,development and catch up[M].Oxford University Press,2010:133-162.
[35]刘圣明.中国创新的挑战:跨越中等收入陷阱[M]//中国产业的创新和技术专业化与中等收入陷阱.北京:北京大学出版社,2016:95-106.
[2]FERNANDO GABRIEL IM.Middle-income traps.a conceptual and empirical survey[R].Washington D.C:World Bank,2013.
[3]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013(9):17-29.
[4]李扬.借鉴国际经验应对“中等收入陷阱”的挑战[J].拉丁美洲研究,2011,33(3):5-6.
[5]HOMI KHARAS.What is the middle income trap,why do countries fall into it,and how can it be avoided[J].Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies,2011,3(3):281-289.
[6]权衡,罗海蓉.“中等收入陷阱”命题与争论:一个文献研究的视角[J].学术月刊,2013(45):86-96.
[7]林志帆.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?---基于增长收敛模型的识别方法[J].世界经济研究,2014(11):10-15.
[8]周文,赵果庆,徐波.中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对---基于地区收入差距视角[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(1):26-38.
[9]耿曙,陈玮.“中等收入陷阱”问题的根源:要素短缺还是制度束缚[J].天津社会科学,2017(2):84-89.
[10]徐永慧,李月.跨越中等收入陷阱中全要素生产率的作用及比较[J].世界经济研究,2017(2):88-97.
[11]蔡昉.中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型[J].中国社会科学,2013(1):56-71.
[12]HUGO ERKEN.Why emerging economies are(un)successful in avoiding the middle income trap[R].Rababank Raboresearch-Economic Research,2017.
[13]郭金兴,胡映.典型地区跨越中等收入陷阱的比较研究[J].亚太经济,2016(5):84-91.
[14]王丽莉,文一.中国能跨越中等收入陷阱吗?---基于工业化路径的跨国比较[J].经济评论,2017(1):31-69.
[15]魏礼群.中国未来经济转型升级的方向与路径[J].全球化,2016(12):5-9.
[16]毛海涛,宋建,刘刚.跨越“中等收入陷阱”的竞争优势新视角---从离散的“产品空间”到连续的“策略空间”[J].河北经贸大学学报,2016,37(4):52-59.
[17]央视网.习近平出席亚太经合组织领导人同工商咨询理事会代表对话会[EB/OL].(2014-11-10)[2016-11-10].http://news.cntv.cn/2014/11/10/VIDE14156179162521 99.shtml.
[18]AYSE OZTURK.Examining the economic growth and the middle-income trap from the perspective of the middle class[J].International Business Review,2016,25:726-738.
[19]姜文辉.产业升级、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”---东亚和东南亚经济体的经验与教训[J].亚太经济,2016(6):92-98.
[20]KEUN LEE.Schumpeterian analysis of economic catchup:knowledge,path creation,and the Middle-income Trap[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[21]王伟光,余景年,彭莉.中国工业机器人产业技术研究---专利地图视角[J].科技进步与对策,2017,34(7):55-61.
[22]FRANCIS NARIN,MARK P CARPENTER,PATRICIAWOOLF.Technological performance assessment based on patents and patent citations[J].IEEE Trans.Eng.Manage,1984,EM-31(4):172-184.
[23]JAFFE,ADAM,TRAJTENBERG.Patents,citation,and innovations:a window on the knowledge economy[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,2002.
[24]黄鲁成,蔡爽.基于专利的技术跃迁实证研究[J].科研管理,2009,30(2):64-69.
[25]KEUN LEE.Smart specialization with short-cycle technologies and implementation strategies to avoid target and design failures[M].Advances in the Theory and Practice of Smart Specialization,2017:201-224.
[26]KEUN LEE,FRANCO MALERBA.Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership:windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems[J].Research Policy,2017,46:338-351.
[27]FABIO LANDINI,KEUN LEE,FABIO LANDINI.Ahistory-friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch-up by latecomers[J].Research Policy,2017,46:431-446.
[28]EICHENGREEN B D PARK,K SHIN.Growth slowdowns redux:new evidence on the middle-income traps[R].NO.w18673,National Bureau of Economic Research,2013.
[29]李月,周密.跨越中等收入陷阱研究的文献综述[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012(9):64-72.
[30]樊继达.韩国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[N].学习时报,2012-07-23.
[31]GILL,HOMI KHARAS.An East Asian renaissance:ideas for economic growth[R].Washington,DC:World Bank,2007.
[32]WORLD BANK.Avoiding middle-income growth traps[R].Washington D.C.,2012.
[33]KEUN LEE,KIM.IPR and technological catch-up in Korea[M].Oxford University Press,2010.
[34]HIROYUKI ODAGIRI,ATSUSHI SUNAMI,RICH-ARD NELSON.Intellectual property rights,development and catch up[M].Oxford University Press,2010:133-162.
[35]刘圣明.中国创新的挑战:跨越中等收入陷阱[M]//中国产业的创新和技术专业化与中等收入陷阱.北京:北京大学出版社,2016:95-106.