中国大陆降水时空格局演变新事实
|
摘要
基于1961年-2014年54年的降水格点数据,利用反距离权重法插值计算分析了中国大陆年降水时空分布,对年降水量进行分类,统计出54年的各个降水分区所占面积变化特征。引进降水重心概念,以年降水量为权重,计算出中国大陆54年的年降水重心并分析其移动特征。结果表明,各个降水分区面积变化与重心移动整体上为随机性序列,波动性明显。其中年降水量在400~600mm的面积占比最大,趋势性最明显,波动幅度最大;受东北和华北地区的降水变异特征显著的影响,年降水重心在东北-西南方向的离散度较大,具有指示局部气候异常的作用。降水重心的纬度与>1 400mm的分类降水面积相关性最大,经度方向相关性不明显。在54年时间尺度和中国大陆空间尺度下,气候变化中的整体降水格局未发生重大改变。
Based on the 54-year yearly grid precipitation data of Chinese mainland from 1961 to 2014,we used the inverse distance weighted interpolation method to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation.We classified the annual precipitation into different quantities and summarized the variation of the area of each precipitation zone in the 54 years.This paper introduced the concept of precipitation barycenter and calculated the annual precipitation barycenter and its movement features.The results showed that the area variation and barycenter movement of each precipitation zone were in a random sequence with obvious fluctuations.The annual precipitation zone of 400~600mm took up the largest area proportion,and showed the most significant trend and the largest fluctuation.Under the significant effect of precipitation variability in northeast and north China,the precipitation barycenters were highly discrete in the northeast-southwest direction,and can indicate regional climatic anomaly.The latitudinal direction(Y-coordinate)of the annual precipitation barycenter showed the greatest correlation with the area of the>1 400 mm precipitation zone.The longitudinal direction(X-coordinate)showed no significant correlation.So Thus,at this space spatial scale(Chinese mainland China)and time scale(54years from 1961 to 2014)scale,the overall precipitation pattern did not change significantly.
Based on the 54-year yearly grid precipitation data of Chinese mainland from 1961 to 2014,we used the inverse distance weighted interpolation method to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation.We classified the annual precipitation into different quantities and summarized the variation of the area of each precipitation zone in the 54 years.This paper introduced the concept of precipitation barycenter and calculated the annual precipitation barycenter and its movement features.The results showed that the area variation and barycenter movement of each precipitation zone were in a random sequence with obvious fluctuations.The annual precipitation zone of 400~600mm took up the largest area proportion,and showed the most significant trend and the largest fluctuation.Under the significant effect of precipitation variability in northeast and north China,the precipitation barycenters were highly discrete in the northeast-southwest direction,and can indicate regional climatic anomaly.The latitudinal direction(Y-coordinate)of the annual precipitation barycenter showed the greatest correlation with the area of the>1 400 mm precipitation zone.The longitudinal direction(X-coordinate)showed no significant correlation.So Thus,at this space spatial scale(Chinese mainland China)and time scale(54years from 1961 to 2014)scale,the overall precipitation pattern did not change significantly.
引文
[1]IPCC.Climate change 2007:Synthesis report[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2]李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象,2015,41(3):261-271.(LI Weijing,ZUO Jin-qing,SONG Yan-ling,et al.Changes in spatiotemporal distribution of drought/flood disaster in Southern China under global climate warming[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(3):261-271.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.03.001
[3]张耀存,张录军.东北气候和生态过渡区近50年来降水和温度概率分布特征变化[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):561-566.(ZHANG Yao-cun,ZHANG Lu-jun.Precipitation and temperature probability characteristics in climatic and ecological transition zone of Northeast China in recent 50years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2005,25(5):561-566.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2005.05.008
[4]胡勇,绪正瑞,韩冬梅,等.基于质心分析的我国降水时空演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):10-16.(HU Yong,XU Zheng-rui,HAN Dong-mei,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in China based on centroid principle[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(3):10-16.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.03.003
[5]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.(HE Wei,BU Ren-cang,XIONG Zai-ping,et al.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961to 2005[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(2):519-531.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201111241799
[6]邬建国.景观生态学-格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.(WU Jian-guo.Landscape Ecology-Pattern,Process,Scale and Herarchy[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000(in Chinese))
[7]Turner M G,Gardner R H,O’Neill R V.Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice[M].Springer New York,2015.
[8]于志磊,秦天玲,王刚,等.川江流域土地利用时空格局动态变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):38-43,61.(YU Zhi-lei,QIN Tian-ling,WANG Gang,et al.Analysis and evaluations of land use pattern on the temporal and spatial dynamic variations in Chuanjiang Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(2):38-43,61.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.02.008
[9]刘昌明,周成虎,于静洁,等.中国水文地理[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.(LIU Chang-ming,ZHOU Chang-hu,YU Jing-jie,et al.China Hydrography[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014(in Chinese))
[10]方叶林,黄震方,陈文娣,等.2001-2010年安徽省县域经济空间演化[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):831-839.(FANG Yelin,HUANG Zhen-fang,CHEN Wen-di,et al.Spatial evolution of county economy in Anhui Province during 2001-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(5):831-839.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.014
[11]建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001,21(5):385-389.(XU Jianhua,YUE Wen-ze.Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2001.05.001
[12]高志强,刘纪远.1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2006,61(8):865-872.(GAO Zhi-qiang,LIU Ji-yuan.The LUCC responses to climatic changes in China from 1980to 2000[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.08.009
[13]王富强,王利娇,彭勃等.水沙变异对黄河三角洲湿地面积演变的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):1-5,25.(WANG Fu-qiang,WANG Li-jiao,PENG Bo,et al.Effect of flow and sediment variation on the Yellow River Delta wetland area evolution[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,,2016,14(2):1-5,25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.02.001
[14]王刚,严登华,申丽霞,等.近55年以来漳卫河流域干旱演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(4):1-5,29.(WANG Gang,YAN Deng-hua,SHEN Li-xia,et al.Drought evolution characteristics in the Zhangwei River basin in recent 55years[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(4):1-5,29.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.04.001
[15]刘斌涛,陶和平,宋春风,等.基于重心模型的西南山区降雨侵蚀力年内变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(21):113-120.(LIU Bin-tao,TAO He-ping,SONG Chun-feng,et al.Study on annual variation of rainfall erosivity in southwest China using gravity center model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(21):113-120.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.21.016
[16]白雪,范大良,尹攀顶,等.1979-2014年广东省经济重心演变特征分析[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(3):17-22.(BAI Xue,FAN Da-liang,YIN Pan-ding,et al.Research on the economic gravity center evolution in Guangdong Province from1979to 2014[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(3):17-22.)DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2015.03.004
[17]Mitchell A.The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis:Spatial Measurements&Statistics:Vol 2[M].Esri Press,2013.
[18]杨彦武,于强,王靖等.近40年华北及华东局部主要气候资源要素的时空变异性[J].资源科学,2004,26(4):45-50.(YANG Yan-wu,Yu Qiang,WANG Jing,et al.Spatio-temporal variations of principal climatic factors in North China and part of East China within past 40years[J].Resources Science,2004,26(4):45-50.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2004.04.007
[19]王艳姣,闫峰.1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.(WANG Yan-jiao,YAN Feng.Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1354-1363.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.10.007
[20]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.(WANG Zun-ya,DING Yi-hui,HE Jin-hai,et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50years[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2004.02.009
[2]李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象,2015,41(3):261-271.(LI Weijing,ZUO Jin-qing,SONG Yan-ling,et al.Changes in spatiotemporal distribution of drought/flood disaster in Southern China under global climate warming[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(3):261-271.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.03.001
[3]张耀存,张录军.东北气候和生态过渡区近50年来降水和温度概率分布特征变化[J].地理科学,2005,25(5):561-566.(ZHANG Yao-cun,ZHANG Lu-jun.Precipitation and temperature probability characteristics in climatic and ecological transition zone of Northeast China in recent 50years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2005,25(5):561-566.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2005.05.008
[4]胡勇,绪正瑞,韩冬梅,等.基于质心分析的我国降水时空演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(3):10-16.(HU Yong,XU Zheng-rui,HAN Dong-mei,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in China based on centroid principle[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(3):10-16.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.03.003
[5]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.(HE Wei,BU Ren-cang,XIONG Zai-ping,et al.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961to 2005[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(2):519-531.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201111241799
[6]邬建国.景观生态学-格局、过程、尺度与等级[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000.(WU Jian-guo.Landscape Ecology-Pattern,Process,Scale and Herarchy[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,2000(in Chinese))
[7]Turner M G,Gardner R H,O’Neill R V.Landscape Ecology in Theory and Practice[M].Springer New York,2015.
[8]于志磊,秦天玲,王刚,等.川江流域土地利用时空格局动态变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):38-43,61.(YU Zhi-lei,QIN Tian-ling,WANG Gang,et al.Analysis and evaluations of land use pattern on the temporal and spatial dynamic variations in Chuanjiang Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(2):38-43,61.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.02.008
[9]刘昌明,周成虎,于静洁,等.中国水文地理[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.(LIU Chang-ming,ZHOU Chang-hu,YU Jing-jie,et al.China Hydrography[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014(in Chinese))
[10]方叶林,黄震方,陈文娣,等.2001-2010年安徽省县域经济空间演化[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):831-839.(FANG Yelin,HUANG Zhen-fang,CHEN Wen-di,et al.Spatial evolution of county economy in Anhui Province during 2001-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(5):831-839.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.05.014
[11]建华,岳文泽.近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析[J].地理科学,2001,21(5):385-389.(XU Jianhua,YUE Wen-ze.Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2001.05.001
[12]高志强,刘纪远.1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2006,61(8):865-872.(GAO Zhi-qiang,LIU Ji-yuan.The LUCC responses to climatic changes in China from 1980to 2000[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2001,21(5):385-389.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2006.08.009
[13]王富强,王利娇,彭勃等.水沙变异对黄河三角洲湿地面积演变的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):1-5,25.(WANG Fu-qiang,WANG Li-jiao,PENG Bo,et al.Effect of flow and sediment variation on the Yellow River Delta wetland area evolution[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,,2016,14(2):1-5,25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.02.001
[14]王刚,严登华,申丽霞,等.近55年以来漳卫河流域干旱演变特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(4):1-5,29.(WANG Gang,YAN Deng-hua,SHEN Li-xia,et al.Drought evolution characteristics in the Zhangwei River basin in recent 55years[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(4):1-5,29.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2014.04.001
[15]刘斌涛,陶和平,宋春风,等.基于重心模型的西南山区降雨侵蚀力年内变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(21):113-120.(LIU Bin-tao,TAO He-ping,SONG Chun-feng,et al.Study on annual variation of rainfall erosivity in southwest China using gravity center model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(21):113-120.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.21.016
[16]白雪,范大良,尹攀顶,等.1979-2014年广东省经济重心演变特征分析[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(3):17-22.(BAI Xue,FAN Da-liang,YIN Pan-ding,et al.Research on the economic gravity center evolution in Guangdong Province from1979to 2014[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(3):17-22.)DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2015.03.004
[17]Mitchell A.The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis:Spatial Measurements&Statistics:Vol 2[M].Esri Press,2013.
[18]杨彦武,于强,王靖等.近40年华北及华东局部主要气候资源要素的时空变异性[J].资源科学,2004,26(4):45-50.(YANG Yan-wu,Yu Qiang,WANG Jing,et al.Spatio-temporal variations of principal climatic factors in North China and part of East China within past 40years[J].Resources Science,2004,26(4):45-50.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1007-7588.2004.04.007
[19]王艳姣,闫峰.1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.(WANG Yan-jiao,YAN Feng.Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1354-1363.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.10.007
[20]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.(WANG Zun-ya,DING Yi-hui,HE Jin-hai,et al.An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50years[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2004.02.009