云贵高原地区1960-2014年气温时空变化特征分析
|
摘要
利用云贵高原47个气象站点1960-2014年的温度数据以及格点资料,采用统计学方法分析了云贵高原温度的时空变化特征.结果表明,近55 a,云贵高原整体温度为显著的上升趋势, 20世纪90年代之后增温速率显著增加,呈西高东低的态势.经验正交分解(EOF)结果表明,无论是年平均温度还是四季温度, EOF1以及对应的标准化时间序列反映出云贵高原呈现一致的增温变化; EOF2则表现出东西反向的变化特征,可能主要受地形以及昆明准静止锋的影响,夏季可能还受到大气环流因素的影响.
Some statistical methods were applied to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of temperature over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau by using the temperature data collected from 47 meteorological stations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau during 1960-2014 and also the grid data. The results showed that there had been a remarkable warming trend of the whole Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau temperature during the recent 55 years, and the warming rates had also increased significantly since 1990, with higher rates in the western part and lower in the eastern part. Both annual temperature and seasonal temperature on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau showed the same variation patterns according to an EOF analysis. Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau showed a consistent variation in recent 55 years according to EOF1 and, corresponding to normaliz time series 1, EOF2 indicated that the temperature variation of the eastern plateau was opposite to the western plateau, which might be related to the terrain and Kunming quasi stationary front, and dipole in summer might also have been affected by atmospheric circulation factors.
Some statistical methods were applied to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of temperature over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau by using the temperature data collected from 47 meteorological stations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau during 1960-2014 and also the grid data. The results showed that there had been a remarkable warming trend of the whole Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau temperature during the recent 55 years, and the warming rates had also increased significantly since 1990, with higher rates in the western part and lower in the eastern part. Both annual temperature and seasonal temperature on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau showed the same variation patterns according to an EOF analysis. Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau showed a consistent variation in recent 55 years according to EOF1 and, corresponding to normaliz time series 1, EOF2 indicated that the temperature variation of the eastern plateau was opposite to the western plateau, which might be related to the terrain and Kunming quasi stationary front, and dipole in summer might also have been affected by atmospheric circulation factors.
引文
[1]IPCC.Working group I:contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report,climat change 2013:the physical science basis:summary for policymakers[R/OL].2017-05-01.http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/G1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf.
[2]IPCC.Working groupⅡ:contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report,climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability:summary for policymakers[R/OL].2017-05-02.http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf.
[3]Ma Zheng-feng,Liu Jia,Yang Shu-qun.Climate change in Southwest China during 1961-2010:impacts and adaptation[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2013,4(4):223-229.
[4]丁一汇,戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象,1994,20(12):19-26.
[5]Lu Ai-gang,He Yuan-qing,Zhang Zhong-lin,et al.Regional structure of global warming across China during the twentieth Century[J].Climate Research,2004,27(3):189-195.
[6]马振锋,彭骏,高文良,等.近40年西南地区的气候变化事实[J].高原气象,2006,25(4):633-642.
[7]刘晓冉,李国平,范广洲,等.西南地区近40 a气温变化的时空特征分析[J].气象科学,2008,28(1):30-36.
[8]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-26.
[9]Fan Ze-xin,Br?uning A,Thomas A,et al.Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau(Southwest China)during 1961-2004[J].International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(14):2078-2090.
[10]Easterling D R,Peterson T C.The effect of artificial discontinuities on recent trends in minimum and maximum temperatures[J].Atmospheric Research,1995,37(1/3):19-26.
[11]宋超辉,刘小宁,李集明.气温序列非均一性检验方法的研究[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(3):289-296.
[12]Vincent L A.A technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series[J].Journal of Climate,1998,11(5):1094-1104.
[13]Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(D14):1063-1082.
[14]Kobayashi S,Ota Y,Harada Y,et al.The JRA-55 reanalysis:general specifications and basic characteristics[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2015,93(1):5-48.
[15]Wang Xiao-lan,Feng Yang.RHtestsV4 user manual[M].Toronto:Science and Technology Branch,Environment Canada,2013.
[16]Wang Xiao-lan,Wen Qiu-zi,Wu Yue-hua.Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate cata series[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2007,46(6):916-931.
[17]Wang Xiao-lan.Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2008,47(9):2423-2444.
[18]Wang Xiao-lan.Penalized maximal F test for detecting undocumented mean shift without trend change[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2008,25(3):368-384.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:58-66,105-113.
[20]起树华,王建彬.元谋干热河谷气候生态环境变化的初步分析[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(S2):125-127.
[21]尹文有,田文寿,琚建华.西南地区不同地形台阶气温时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):429-435.
[22]Revadekar J V,Hameed S,Collins D,et al.Impact of altitude and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over South Asia during 1971-2000[J].International Journal of Climatology,2013,33(1):199-209.
[23]Dong Dan-hong,Huang Gang,Qu Xia,et al.Temperature trend-altitude relationship in China during 1963-2012[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2015,122(1/2):1-10.
[24]Liu Xiao-dong,Cheng Zhi-gang,Yan Li-bin,et al.Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings[J].Global and Planetary Change,2009,68(3):164-174.
[25]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[26]唐国利,丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对中国年平均气温序列影响[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(2):187-192.
[27]Russell S,Asheville N C,Easterling D R,et al.Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe[J].Science,1997,277(5324):364-367.
[28]钱维宏.全球气候系统[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009:82-91.
[29]Knight J,Kennedy J J,Folland C,et al.Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2009,9(3):259-286.
[30]Medhaug I,Stolpe M B,Fischer E M,et al.Reconciling controversies about the'global warming hiatus'[J].Nature,2017,545(7652):41-45.
[31]王少鹏,王志恒,朴世龙,等.中国40年来增温时间存在显著的区域差异[J].科学通报,2010,55(16):1538-1543.
[32]丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):794-805.
[33]卢爱刚,何元庆,张忠林,等.中国大陆对全球变暖响应的区域敏感性分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6):827-832.
[34]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1982,110(7):699-706.
[35]张精华,张万诚,郑建萌,等.1970-2009年冬季昆明准静止锋的变化特征及其影响分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(5):1298-1306.
[36]索渺清,丁一汇.昆明准静止锋的发现和研究[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(3):6-16.
[2]IPCC.Working groupⅡ:contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report,climate change 2014:impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability:summary for policymakers[R/OL].2017-05-02.http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_en.pdf.
[3]Ma Zheng-feng,Liu Jia,Yang Shu-qun.Climate change in Southwest China during 1961-2010:impacts and adaptation[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2013,4(4):223-229.
[4]丁一汇,戴晓苏.中国近百年来的温度变化[J].气象,1994,20(12):19-26.
[5]Lu Ai-gang,He Yuan-qing,Zhang Zhong-lin,et al.Regional structure of global warming across China during the twentieth Century[J].Climate Research,2004,27(3):189-195.
[6]马振锋,彭骏,高文良,等.近40年西南地区的气候变化事实[J].高原气象,2006,25(4):633-642.
[7]刘晓冉,李国平,范广洲,等.西南地区近40 a气温变化的时空特征分析[J].气象科学,2008,28(1):30-36.
[8]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-26.
[9]Fan Ze-xin,Br?uning A,Thomas A,et al.Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau(Southwest China)during 1961-2004[J].International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(14):2078-2090.
[10]Easterling D R,Peterson T C.The effect of artificial discontinuities on recent trends in minimum and maximum temperatures[J].Atmospheric Research,1995,37(1/3):19-26.
[11]宋超辉,刘小宁,李集明.气温序列非均一性检验方法的研究[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(3):289-296.
[12]Vincent L A.A technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series[J].Journal of Climate,1998,11(5):1094-1104.
[13]Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(D14):1063-1082.
[14]Kobayashi S,Ota Y,Harada Y,et al.The JRA-55 reanalysis:general specifications and basic characteristics[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2015,93(1):5-48.
[15]Wang Xiao-lan,Feng Yang.RHtestsV4 user manual[M].Toronto:Science and Technology Branch,Environment Canada,2013.
[16]Wang Xiao-lan,Wen Qiu-zi,Wu Yue-hua.Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate cata series[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2007,46(6):916-931.
[17]Wang Xiao-lan.Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2008,47(9):2423-2444.
[18]Wang Xiao-lan.Penalized maximal F test for detecting undocumented mean shift without trend change[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2008,25(3):368-384.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:58-66,105-113.
[20]起树华,王建彬.元谋干热河谷气候生态环境变化的初步分析[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(S2):125-127.
[21]尹文有,田文寿,琚建华.西南地区不同地形台阶气温时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):429-435.
[22]Revadekar J V,Hameed S,Collins D,et al.Impact of altitude and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over South Asia during 1971-2000[J].International Journal of Climatology,2013,33(1):199-209.
[23]Dong Dan-hong,Huang Gang,Qu Xia,et al.Temperature trend-altitude relationship in China during 1963-2012[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2015,122(1/2):1-10.
[24]Liu Xiao-dong,Cheng Zhi-gang,Yan Li-bin,et al.Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings[J].Global and Planetary Change,2009,68(3):164-174.
[25]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[26]唐国利,丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对中国年平均气温序列影响[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(2):187-192.
[27]Russell S,Asheville N C,Easterling D R,et al.Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe[J].Science,1997,277(5324):364-367.
[28]钱维宏.全球气候系统[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009:82-91.
[29]Knight J,Kennedy J J,Folland C,et al.Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2009,9(3):259-286.
[30]Medhaug I,Stolpe M B,Fischer E M,et al.Reconciling controversies about the'global warming hiatus'[J].Nature,2017,545(7652):41-45.
[31]王少鹏,王志恒,朴世龙,等.中国40年来增温时间存在显著的区域差异[J].科学通报,2010,55(16):1538-1543.
[32]丁一汇,张莉.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):794-805.
[33]卢爱刚,何元庆,张忠林,等.中国大陆对全球变暖响应的区域敏感性分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6):827-832.
[34]North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J].Monthly Weather Review,1982,110(7):699-706.
[35]张精华,张万诚,郑建萌,等.1970-2009年冬季昆明准静止锋的变化特征及其影响分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(5):1298-1306.
[36]索渺清,丁一汇.昆明准静止锋的发现和研究[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(3):6-16.