基于系统动力学的区域能源互联网综合效益分析
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摘要
区域能源互联网综合效益的评估涉及对多种因素之间复杂反馈关系的处理,而传统评价方法一般局限于某一方面,未能全方位评估区域能源互联网发展带来的综合效益。提出了一种基于系统动力学的区域能源互联网综合效益评价模型。首先分析了区域互联网的构建带来的经济、社会、资源和环境4个方面的效益及相关影响因素;其次分析归纳了各因素间关系和反馈机制,并以此为基础构建了基于系统动力学的区域能源互联网综合效益评价模型;最后以东南亚地区为案例进行了多场景仿真分析,结果表明该模型可实现区域能源互联网综合效益量化评价,为区域能源互联网的规划和发展研究提供工具。
Assessing the comprehensive benefit of regional energy interconnection needs to deal with the complex coupling relationship of multiple factors. Traditional evaluation methods are generally limited to one aspect, failing to evaluate the comprehensive benefit brought by regional energy interconnection. Based on the system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process, this paper puts forward a comprehensive benefit analysis method for the evaluation of regional energy interconnection. Firstly, the comprehensively economic, social, resource and environmental benefit and related influencing factors brought about by regional energy interconnection construction are analyzed. Secondly, the relationship and feedback mechanism of various factors are analyzed, and furthermore, the comprehensive evaluation model of regional energy interconnection based on system dynamics are built. Finally, based on the case study of Southeast Asia, it is demonstrated that the proposed model can realize the quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive benefit as well as provide reference for the planning and development of regional energy interconnection.
Assessing the comprehensive benefit of regional energy interconnection needs to deal with the complex coupling relationship of multiple factors. Traditional evaluation methods are generally limited to one aspect, failing to evaluate the comprehensive benefit brought by regional energy interconnection. Based on the system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process, this paper puts forward a comprehensive benefit analysis method for the evaluation of regional energy interconnection. Firstly, the comprehensively economic, social, resource and environmental benefit and related influencing factors brought about by regional energy interconnection construction are analyzed. Secondly, the relationship and feedback mechanism of various factors are analyzed, and furthermore, the comprehensive evaluation model of regional energy interconnection based on system dynamics are built. Finally, based on the case study of Southeast Asia, it is demonstrated that the proposed model can realize the quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive benefit as well as provide reference for the planning and development of regional energy interconnection.
引文
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[19]高崇阳,邵辉,毕海普,等.电力建设项目风险管理的系统动力学模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(10):137-143.Gao Chongyang,Shao Hui,Bi Haipu,et al.System dynamics model for electric construction project risk management[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(10):137-143(in Chinese).
[20]中国电力科学研究院.利用多能源转换技术推进清洁能源替代的可行性研究[R].北京:中国电力科学研究院,2016.
[2]European Network of Transmission System Operators.European network of transmission system operators for electricity[R].Brussel:ENTSOE,2018.
[3]Grenatec Research.Pan-Asian energy infrastructureAustralia[R].Grenatec Research:Sydney,2013.
[4]金艳鸣,谭雪,焦冰琦,等.基于可计算一般均衡模型的全球能源互联网经济社会效益分析[J].智慧电力,2018,46(5):1-7.Jin Yanming,Tan Xue,Jiao Bingqi,et al.Study on economic and social benefits of global energy internet based on computable general equilibrium model[J].Smart Power,2018,46(5):1-7(in Chinese).
[5]宗慧隽.全球能源互联网社会效益形成机理及效益测算[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版),2017,8:29-35.Zong Huijun.Formation mechanism and benefit calculation of global energy interconnection social benefits[J].Fujian Tribune,2017,8:29-35(in Chinese).
[6]赵秋莉,冯君淑,金艳鸣,等.全球能源互联网背景下的环境效益评估[J].全球能源互联网,2018,1(S1):257-262.Zhao Qiuli,Feng Junshu,Jin Yanming,et al.Environmental benefit assessment in the background of global energy interconnection[J].Journal of Global Energy Interconnection,2018,1(S1):257-262(in Chinese).
[7]范爱军,潘垠伊.全球能源互联网发展潜力与关联效益探析[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版),2016,7:10-16.Fan Aijun,Pan Yinyi.Analysis on the development potential and related benefits of global energy interconnection[J].Fujian Tribune,2016,7:10-16(in Chinese).
[8]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994.
[9]侯建.基于系统动力学的港口经济可持续性发展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(1):56-61.Hou Jian.Sustainable development of port economics based on system dynamics[J].System Engineering-Theory&Practice,2010,30(1):56-61(in Chinese).
[10]张春香,刘志学.基于系统动力学的河南省文化旅游产业分析[J].管理世界,2007(5):152-154.Zhang Chunxiang,Liu Zhixue.Analysis of cultural tourism industry in Henan province based on system dynamics[J].Management World,2007(5):152-154(in Chinese).
[11]左其亭,陈嘻.社会经济-生态环境耦合系统动力学模型[J].上海环境科学,2001,20(12):592-594.Zuo Qiting,Chen Xi.Dynamic model of coupling system for social-economy and eco-environment[J].Shanghai Environment Sciences,2001,20(12):592-594(in Chinese).
[12]顾洁,秦玥,包海龙,等.基于熵权与系统动力学的配电网规划动态综合评价[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(1):76-83.Gu Jie,Qin Yue,Bao Hailong,et al.Comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the distribution network planning based on entropy weight and system dynamics[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(1):76-83(in Chinese).
[13]谈金晶,王蓓蓓,李扬.系统动力学在需求响应综合效益评估中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(13):128-134.Tan Jinjing,Wang Beibei,Li Yang.Application of system dynamics on comprehensive benefits valuation of demand response[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(13):128-134(in Chinese).
[14]姚亚平,杨玉霞,孙海燕,等.基于归一法机电产品回收处理环境效益的研究[J].机械设计与制造,2011,6:252-254.Yao Yaping,Yang Yuxia,Shu Haiyan,et al.Research of environmental benefits in recycling mechanical and electrical products based on normalization method[J].Machinery Design&Manufacture,2011,6:252-254(in Chinese).
[15]何科雷.智能配用电技术经济分析及综合效益评价研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[16]International Renewable Energy Agency.Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN[R].IRENA&ACE,2016.
[17]Brighthub Engineering.The efficiency of power plants of different types[EB/OL].https://www.brighthubengineering.com/power-plants/72369-compare-the-efficiency-of-differentpower-plants/.
[18]Ernest H.Forman,Saul I.Gass.The analytical hierarchy process-an exposition[J].Operations Research,2001,49(4):469-487.
[19]高崇阳,邵辉,毕海普,等.电力建设项目风险管理的系统动力学模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(10):137-143.Gao Chongyang,Shao Hui,Bi Haipu,et al.System dynamics model for electric construction project risk management[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(10):137-143(in Chinese).
[20]中国电力科学研究院.利用多能源转换技术推进清洁能源替代的可行性研究[R].北京:中国电力科学研究院,2016.