基于博弈论组合赋权灰靶模型的煤矿安全综合评价
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摘要
为了合理准确地评价煤矿安全现状,建立了基于博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策的煤矿安全评价模型。运用层次分析法、熵权法和神经网络算法单独计算出各个指标的权重,再根据最优线性组合系数确定博弈论组合赋权。以河南义马煤业5组矿井安全现状为例,运用博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策计算矿井偏离靶心度,同时将该模型的评价结果与层次分析法耦合灰靶决策模型、熵权灰靶决策模型和神经网络算法耦合灰靶决策模型的评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明:博弈论组合赋权耦合灰靶决策模型的评价结果与煤矿实际安全情况基本一致,且该模型相较其他模型的评价结果更加精准简便。
In order to evaluate the current status of coal mine safety reasonably and accurately,an evaluation model of coal mine safety based on the coupling of combination weighting of game theory and grey target decision-making was established.The analytic hierarchy process method( AHP),entropy weight method( EN) and neural network algorithm( ANN) were used to calculate the weights of each index separately,and the combination weights of game theory were determined according to the optimal linear combination coefficient. Taking the safety status of five groups of mines in Yima coal industry of Henan Province as example,the degrees of deviation from target of the mines were calculated by using the coupling of combination weighting of game theory and grey target decision-making. At the same time,the evaluation results of this model were compared with those of AHP coupled with grey target decision-making model,entropy weight grey target decision-making model and neural network algorithm coupled with grey target decision-making model. The results showed that the evaluation results of the combination weighting of game theory coupled with grey target decision-making model were basically consistent with the actual safety situation of coal mines,and they were more simple and accurate than those of other models.
In order to evaluate the current status of coal mine safety reasonably and accurately,an evaluation model of coal mine safety based on the coupling of combination weighting of game theory and grey target decision-making was established.The analytic hierarchy process method( AHP),entropy weight method( EN) and neural network algorithm( ANN) were used to calculate the weights of each index separately,and the combination weights of game theory were determined according to the optimal linear combination coefficient. Taking the safety status of five groups of mines in Yima coal industry of Henan Province as example,the degrees of deviation from target of the mines were calculated by using the coupling of combination weighting of game theory and grey target decision-making. At the same time,the evaluation results of this model were compared with those of AHP coupled with grey target decision-making model,entropy weight grey target decision-making model and neural network algorithm coupled with grey target decision-making model. The results showed that the evaluation results of the combination weighting of game theory coupled with grey target decision-making model were basically consistent with the actual safety situation of coal mines,and they were more simple and accurate than those of other models.
引文
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[10]陆卫东,尹彬,韦刚,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的煤矿安全现状评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2017,39(3):270-274.LU Weidong,YIN Bin,WEI Gang,et al. Evaluation of coal mine safety based on entropy weight TOPSIS model[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2017,39(3):270-274.
[11]杨涛.基于BP神经网络法的煤矿安全评价系统研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2012.
[12]路遥,徐林荣,陈舒阳,等.基于博弈论组合赋权的泥石流危险度评价[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):194-200.LU Yao,XU Linrong,CHEN Shuyang,et al. Debris flow risk assessment based on combination weighting of game theory[J]. Disaster science,2014,29(1):194-200.
[13]鲁佳慧,唐德善.基于博弈论组合赋权的水环境综合治理效果评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2018(6):105-111.LU Jiahui,TANG Deshan. Evaluation of comprehensive water environment management effect based on game theory combination empowerment[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering,2018(6):105-111.
[14]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[15]李久亮.灰色多属性群决策的灰靶方法研究[D].浙江:浙江理工大学,2013.
[16]乔国厚.煤矿安全风险综合评价与预警管理模式研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2013.
[2]周忠科,王立杰.基于BP神经网络的煤矿安全预警评估机制研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(4):134-138.ZHOU Zhongke,WANG Lijie. Research on coal mine safety early warning and assessment mechanism based on BP neural network[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2011,7(4):134-138.
[3]汪刘凯,孟祥瑞,何叶荣,等.基于CA-SEM的煤矿安全事故风险因素结构模型[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(12):150-156.WANG Liukai,MENG Xiangrui,HE Yerong,et al. Structural model of risk factors for coal mine safety accidents based on CA-SEM[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(12):150-156.
[4]孟令玲,冯新刚.层次分析法和模糊综合评价法在煤矿安全生产评价中的应用研究[J].煤炭工程,2012(8):114-116.MENG Lingling,FENG Xingang. Application of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in coal mine safety production evaluation[J]. Coal engineering,2012(8):114-116.
[5]马金山,赵志科,姬长生.基于投影寻踪及灰靶决策的区域煤矿安全度分析[J].工业安全与环保,2014,40(8):25-27.MA Jinshan,ZHAO Zhike,JI Changsheng. Regional coalmine safety analysis based on projection pursuit and grey target decision[J].Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection,2014,40(8):25-27.
[6]梁冰,秦冰,孙维吉,等.智能加权灰靶决策模型在煤与瓦斯突出危险评价中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2013,38(9):1611-1615.LIANG Bing,QIN Bing,SUN Weiji,et al. Application of intelligent weighted grey target decision model in risk assessment of coal and gas outburst[J]. Journal of Coal Science,2013, 38(9):1611-1615.
[7]何叶荣,洪力学,黄廷辉.基于PR-SEM的煤矿安全管理风险因素综合评价[J].西安科技大学学报,2018,38(5):845-851.HE Yerong,HONG Lixue,HUANG Tinghui. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors in coal mine safety management based on PRSEM[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2018,38(5):845-851.
[8]梁冰,秦冰,孙维吉.基于灰靶决策模型的煤与瓦斯突出可能性评价[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(12):1974-1978.LIANG Bing,QIN Bin,SUN Weiji. Possibility evaluation of coal and gas outburst based on grey target decision model[J]. Journal of Coal Science,2011,36(12):1974-1978.
[9]王彦波,谢贤平,李锦峰,等.基于FAHP的煤矿瓦斯治理综合评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(11):101-106.WANG Yanbo,XIE Xianping,LI Jinfeng,et al. Comprehensive evaluation of coal mine gas control based on FAHP[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(11):101-106.
[10]陆卫东,尹彬,韦刚,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的煤矿安全现状评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2017,39(3):270-274.LU Weidong,YIN Bin,WEI Gang,et al. Evaluation of coal mine safety based on entropy weight TOPSIS model[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2017,39(3):270-274.
[11]杨涛.基于BP神经网络法的煤矿安全评价系统研究[D].太原:太原理工大学,2012.
[12]路遥,徐林荣,陈舒阳,等.基于博弈论组合赋权的泥石流危险度评价[J].灾害学,2014,29(1):194-200.LU Yao,XU Linrong,CHEN Shuyang,et al. Debris flow risk assessment based on combination weighting of game theory[J]. Disaster science,2014,29(1):194-200.
[13]鲁佳慧,唐德善.基于博弈论组合赋权的水环境综合治理效果评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2018(6):105-111.LU Jiahui,TANG Deshan. Evaluation of comprehensive water environment management effect based on game theory combination empowerment[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering,2018(6):105-111.
[14]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.
[15]李久亮.灰色多属性群决策的灰靶方法研究[D].浙江:浙江理工大学,2013.
[16]乔国厚.煤矿安全风险综合评价与预警管理模式研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2013.