长江中下游夏季降水变化与亚洲夏季风系统的关系
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摘要
以长江中下游流域实测降水数据和亚洲季风指数为基础,采用Mann-Kendall检验、线性相关和偏相关分析、小波分析等方法,揭示长江中下游夏季降水的时空变化特征及其与亚洲季风系统之间的相互关系和影响差异。结果表明,近50 a来长江中下游夏季降水量呈显著的增加趋势,其与亚洲主要夏季风指数之间均呈负的线性相关关系,且显著性影响范围东亚夏季风大于南海夏季风大于南亚夏季风。不同亚洲夏季风子系统间存在复杂的相互作用关系,尤其是东亚夏季风和南海夏季风之间的相互作用对长江中下游夏季降水产生了重要影响。长江中下游夏季降水量与亚洲主要夏季风指数存在2~4 a时间尺度上的显著相关性,且以反位相关系为主。此外,长江中下游夏季降水量与东亚夏季风的相干性最为突出,在小于8 a的时间尺度上,两者之间的相关性在近50 a来呈现减弱的趋势,特别是自20世纪80年代中后期以来。
The Asian monsoon system is the most typical and complex monsoon system on the earth, which plays a decisive role in the spatio-temporal distribution of summer precipitation in the central and eastern China. Based on the measured precipitation data across the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin, the current study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of summer precipitation in middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and its connection with main components of Asian summer monsoon system by using the methods of Mann-Kendall test, correlation and partial correlation analysis and wavelet analysis. Result demonstrates that the summer precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and shows a negative linear correlation with the main components of Asian summer monsoon indices. Specific significant influencing area shows the largest for East Asian summer monsoon, followed by South China Sea summer monsoon and South Asian summer monsoon. With reference to the linear correlation, the partial correlation coefficient between the summer precipitation of the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and the main Asian monsoon indices decreased remarkably, and all the correlations were not significant. The three Asian monsoon subsystems show strong interactions which exert important influence on the local precipitation. Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis revealed that summer precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and the main Asian summer monsoon indices shows multi-time scale oscillation period, which is dominant by anti-phase relationship. Wavelet analysis also indicates that significant coherence between summer precipitation and the Asian summer monsoon indices seems to be weakened in recent years since the middle 1980 s.
The Asian monsoon system is the most typical and complex monsoon system on the earth, which plays a decisive role in the spatio-temporal distribution of summer precipitation in the central and eastern China. Based on the measured precipitation data across the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin, the current study investigated the spatio-temporal variation of summer precipitation in middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and its connection with main components of Asian summer monsoon system by using the methods of Mann-Kendall test, correlation and partial correlation analysis and wavelet analysis. Result demonstrates that the summer precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and shows a negative linear correlation with the main components of Asian summer monsoon indices. Specific significant influencing area shows the largest for East Asian summer monsoon, followed by South China Sea summer monsoon and South Asian summer monsoon. With reference to the linear correlation, the partial correlation coefficient between the summer precipitation of the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and the main Asian monsoon indices decreased remarkably, and all the correlations were not significant. The three Asian monsoon subsystems show strong interactions which exert important influence on the local precipitation. Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis revealed that summer precipitation in the middle-lower Yangtze River Basin and the main Asian summer monsoon indices shows multi-time scale oscillation period, which is dominant by anti-phase relationship. Wavelet analysis also indicates that significant coherence between summer precipitation and the Asian summer monsoon indices seems to be weakened in recent years since the middle 1980 s.
引文
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[4]Zhang Q,Wang Y,Singh V P et al.Impacts of ENSO and ENSO Modoki+A regimes on seasonal precipitation variations and possible underlying causes in the Huai River basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,533:308–319.
[5]陈栋,陈际龙,黄荣辉,等.中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际跃变及其大尺度环流背景[J].大气科学,2016,40(3):581-590.[Chen Ddong,Chen Jilong,Huang Ronghui et al.Interdecadal changes of summertime heavy rainfall in eastern China and their large-scale circulation backgrounds.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(3):581-590.]
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[11]李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿,等.东亚和南亚夏季风对中国季风区径流深影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):349-356.[Li Fuxing,Chen Dong,Tang Qiuhong et al.Influence of East and South Asian summer monsoons on runoff in the monsoon region of East China.Advances in Water Science.2016,27(3):349-356.]
[12]Wei W,Zhang R,Wen M et al.Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,43(5-6):1257-1269.
[13]闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.[Shan Lijie,Zhang Liping,Chen Xinchi et al.Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(12):2100-2107.]
[14]李建平,曾庆存.一个新的季风指数及其年际变化和与雨量的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(3):351-365.[Li Jianping,Zeng Qingcun.A new monsoon index,its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(3):351-365.]
[15]Li J,Zeng Q.A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons[J].Advances in Atmospheric sciences,2003,20(2):299-302.
[16]Li J,Zeng Q.A unified monsoon index[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(8),1274.
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.[Wei Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.]
[18]Foufoula-Georgiou E,Kumar P.Wavelets in geophysics.San Diego:Academic Press,1994.
[19]Grinsted A,Moore J C,Jevrejeva S.Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2004,11(5/6):561-566.
[20]余丹丹,张韧,洪梅,等.基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):755-769.[Yu Dandan,Zhang Ren,Hong Mei et al.Correlation analysis between the west Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system based on cross wavelet and wavelet coherence.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2007,30(6):755-769.]
[21]Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[22]张国宏,李智才,宋燕,等.中国降水量变化的空间分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1),34-42.[Zhang Guohong,Li Zhicai,Song Yan et al.Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China and the role of East Asia summer monsoon.Arid Land Geography,2011,34(1),34-42.]
[23]吕俊梅,任菊章,琚建华.东亚夏季风的年代际变化对中国降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(1):73-80.[Lv Junmei,Ren Juzhang,Ju Jianhua.The interdecadal variability of East Asia monsoon and its effect on the rainfall over China.Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2004,20(1):73-80.]
[24]陈际龙,黄荣辉.亚澳季风各子系统气候学特征的异同研究Ⅱ.夏季风水汽输送[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):766-778.[Chen Jilong,Huang Ronghui.The comparison of climatological characteristics among Asian and Australian monsoon subsystems.Part II:Water vapor transport by summer monsoon.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(5):766-778.]
[25]田红,郭品文,陆维松.中国夏季降水的水汽通道特征及其影响因子分析[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(4):401-408.[Tian Hong,Guo Pinwen,Lu Weisong.Characteristics of vapor inflow corridors related to summer rainfall in China and impact factors.Journal of tropical meteorology,2004,20(4),401-408.]
[26]吴进,何金海,张祖强,等.亚洲夏季风各子系统主要变率相互关系初析[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(5):619-625.[Wu Jin,He Jinhai,Zhang Zuqiang et al.The analysis of the relationship between the subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon.Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2011,27(5):619-625.]
[27]Pui A,Sharma A,Santoso A et al.Impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation,Indian Ocean Dipole,and Southern Annular Mode on daily to subdaily rainfall characteristics in East Australia[J].Monthly Weather Review.2012,140(5):1665-1682.
[28]Xiao M,Zhang Q,Singh V P.Influences of ENSO,NAO,IOD and PDO on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River basin,China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(12):3556-3567.
[29]Ouyang R,Liu W,Fu G et al.Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation,streamflow in China during the last100 years[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18(9):3651-3661.
[30]Yin Y,Xu C Y,Chen Y.Relationship between flood/drought disasters and ENSO from 1857 to 2003 in the Taihu Lake basin,China[J].Quaternary International,2009,208(1):93-101.
[31]Wu R,Wang B.A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962-77 and 1978-93[J].Journal of Climate,2002,15:3266-3279.
[32]Gao H.Decadal variation of the relationship between summer precipitation along the Huaihe River valley and SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2006,17(1):1-9.
[33]Wang H.The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(1):1-11.
[2]Li H,Dai A,Zhou T et al.Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000[J].Climate Dynamics,2010,34(4):501-514.
[3]Ping F,Tang X,Gao S et al.A comparative study of the atmospheric circulations associated with rainy-season floods between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins[J].Science China Earth Sciences,2014,57(7):1464-1479.
[4]Zhang Q,Wang Y,Singh V P et al.Impacts of ENSO and ENSO Modoki+A regimes on seasonal precipitation variations and possible underlying causes in the Huai River basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,533:308–319.
[5]陈栋,陈际龙,黄荣辉,等.中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际跃变及其大尺度环流背景[J].大气科学,2016,40(3):581-590.[Chen Ddong,Chen Jilong,Huang Ronghui et al.Interdecadal changes of summertime heavy rainfall in eastern China and their large-scale circulation backgrounds.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(3):581-590.]
[6]Zhu Q,He J,Wang P.A study of circulation differences between East-Asian and Indian summer monsoons with their interaction[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1986,3(4):466-477.
[7]Ding Y,Wang Z,Sun Y.Interdecadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon.Part I:Observed evidences[J].International Journal of Climatology,2007,28(9):1139-1161.
[8]Gao H,Jiang W,Li W.Changed relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon circulations and the summer rainfall in eastern China[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,2014,28(6):1075-1084.
[9]李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿.黄河流域水文气象要素变化及与东亚夏季风的关系[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):481-490.[Li Fuxing,Chen Dong,Tang Qiuhong.Variations of hydro-meteorological variables in the Yellow River basin and their relationships with the East Asian summer monsoon.Advances in Water Science,26(4),481-490.]
[10]Xu J.Temporal variation in summer monsoon intensity since1873 and its influence on runoff in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen,Yellow River basin,China[J].Climatic Change,2012,112(2):283-298.
[11]李夫星,陈东,汤秋鸿,等.东亚和南亚夏季风对中国季风区径流深影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):349-356.[Li Fuxing,Chen Dong,Tang Qiuhong et al.Influence of East and South Asian summer monsoons on runoff in the monsoon region of East China.Advances in Water Science.2016,27(3):349-356.]
[12]Wei W,Zhang R,Wen M et al.Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,43(5-6):1257-1269.
[13]闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(12):2100-2107.[Shan Lijie,Zhang Liping,Chen Xinchi et al.Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(12):2100-2107.]
[14]李建平,曾庆存.一个新的季风指数及其年际变化和与雨量的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(3):351-365.[Li Jianping,Zeng Qingcun.A new monsoon index,its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(3):351-365.]
[15]Li J,Zeng Q.A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons[J].Advances in Atmospheric sciences,2003,20(2):299-302.
[16]Li J,Zeng Q.A unified monsoon index[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2002,29(8),1274.
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.[Wei Fengying.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology.Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.]
[18]Foufoula-Georgiou E,Kumar P.Wavelets in geophysics.San Diego:Academic Press,1994.
[19]Grinsted A,Moore J C,Jevrejeva S.Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2004,11(5/6):561-566.
[20]余丹丹,张韧,洪梅,等.基于交叉小波与小波相干的西太平洋副高与东亚夏季风系统的关联性分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2007,30(6):755-769.[Yu Dandan,Zhang Ren,Hong Mei et al.Correlation analysis between the west Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system based on cross wavelet and wavelet coherence.Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2007,30(6):755-769.]
[21]Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78.
[22]张国宏,李智才,宋燕,等.中国降水量变化的空间分布特征与东亚夏季风[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(1),34-42.[Zhang Guohong,Li Zhicai,Song Yan et al.Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China and the role of East Asia summer monsoon.Arid Land Geography,2011,34(1),34-42.]
[23]吕俊梅,任菊章,琚建华.东亚夏季风的年代际变化对中国降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(1):73-80.[Lv Junmei,Ren Juzhang,Ju Jianhua.The interdecadal variability of East Asia monsoon and its effect on the rainfall over China.Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2004,20(1):73-80.]
[24]陈际龙,黄荣辉.亚澳季风各子系统气候学特征的异同研究Ⅱ.夏季风水汽输送[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):766-778.[Chen Jilong,Huang Ronghui.The comparison of climatological characteristics among Asian and Australian monsoon subsystems.Part II:Water vapor transport by summer monsoon.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(5):766-778.]
[25]田红,郭品文,陆维松.中国夏季降水的水汽通道特征及其影响因子分析[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(4):401-408.[Tian Hong,Guo Pinwen,Lu Weisong.Characteristics of vapor inflow corridors related to summer rainfall in China and impact factors.Journal of tropical meteorology,2004,20(4),401-408.]
[26]吴进,何金海,张祖强,等.亚洲夏季风各子系统主要变率相互关系初析[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(5):619-625.[Wu Jin,He Jinhai,Zhang Zuqiang et al.The analysis of the relationship between the subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon.Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2011,27(5):619-625.]
[27]Pui A,Sharma A,Santoso A et al.Impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation,Indian Ocean Dipole,and Southern Annular Mode on daily to subdaily rainfall characteristics in East Australia[J].Monthly Weather Review.2012,140(5):1665-1682.
[28]Xiao M,Zhang Q,Singh V P.Influences of ENSO,NAO,IOD and PDO on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River basin,China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(12):3556-3567.
[29]Ouyang R,Liu W,Fu G et al.Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation,streamflow in China during the last100 years[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18(9):3651-3661.
[30]Yin Y,Xu C Y,Chen Y.Relationship between flood/drought disasters and ENSO from 1857 to 2003 in the Taihu Lake basin,China[J].Quaternary International,2009,208(1):93-101.
[31]Wu R,Wang B.A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962-77 and 1978-93[J].Journal of Climate,2002,15:3266-3279.
[32]Gao H.Decadal variation of the relationship between summer precipitation along the Huaihe River valley and SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2006,17(1):1-9.
[33]Wang H.The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(1):1-11.